3 Reasons Stocks Are Straining To Get Over the Hump

By | Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

The S&P 500 – a broad market barometer for U.S. stocks – last hit a record high six-and-a-half months ago. Why has the stock market failed to close above its previous peak set back on January 26? The short answer is that not everyone is buying the media-hyped “Goldilocks” scenario. Granted, the country is enjoying the near-term benefits associated with tax cut stimulus and relatively low interest rates. Employment trends have been favorable. Consumers are willingly spending both the money…

Read More

What The Real Estate Cycle May Tell Us About Stocks

By | Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Real Estate ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales have declined for three consecutive months. Similarly, the year-over-year data have been negative in every month except for February. Existing home sales are hardly the only weak spot in real estate. Sales of new homes fell 5.3% in June. Meanwhile, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that purchase applications dropped 5% and overall application volume decreased 2.5% (through the week ending July 13). There’s more. Housing permits shrank on a year-over-year…

Read More

Corporations Set Records For Buybacks As Their Insiders Sell

By | Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Mid Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, Telecom ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Tax-cut infused earnings have been solid. The rapid-fire rise of longer-term borrowing costs has slowed considerably. And corporate share buybacks have dwarfed earlier records. In Q2 alone, corporations purchased a staggering $436.6 billion in stock buybacks. That brings the year-to-date total to $670 billion. Similarly, announced S&P 500 buybacks are practically leaping off of the chart. More than most factors influencing market direction, buybacks have kept large-cap stocks from succumbing to legitimate concerns about Federal Reserve policy error, China trade…

Read More

Stuck Between A Rock, A Boulder And A Hard Place

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

If the Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate much further, it risks triggering a recession. That’s not my opinion; rather, it is the opinion of Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Kashkari’s thesis? When shorter-term rates rise above longer-term ones – a phenomenon known as yield curve inversion – the financial markets are anticipating an economic slowdown in the near future. Additionally, Kashkari does not care why longer-term Treasury yields are flat or falling (e.g.,…

Read More

The Yield Curve and Stocks: Much Ado About Everything

By | Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

There has been a great deal of chatter about the strength of the American job market. And with good reason. Most measures of employment health – U-2 unemployment rate, jobless claims, wage increases, year-over-year job growth, etc. – support the notion that U.S. workers are “winning.” On the other hand, very few folks have addressed the possibility that the data are more likely to weaken than strengthen. On the contrary. So much faith is being placed on tax cut stimulus…

Read More