From 50 To Zero: Why Investors Are Shunning International Stocks

By | Asia ETFs, Bond ETFs, China ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, Frontier Market ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Leading into 2008, emerging market stocks and international stocks dominated financial shows. “Talking heads” agreed that investors should allocate as much as 50% overseas for a well-diversified portfolio. The reasoning? One should be aligned with the world’s stock market pie. After all, half of the world’s market capitalization belonged to U.S. stocks and half belonged to stocks from elsewhere around the globe. However, the real reason had little to do with market capitalization. In truth, foreign stocks were dramatically outperforming…

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The Silencing of the Bears

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Global ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Since 2015, I have been less than enthusiastic about risk assets. And while I do not short the market, nor have I ever been completely divested from equities, investors have been rewarded for “going long.” Nevertheless, a review of the previous four years must note the 22 months of sideways stock movement that preceded the November 2016 election. The assessment must also account for the calendar year losses in 2018, especially for smaller-cap equities and foreign equities. The reason that…

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Will The Fed’s Capitulation Come Back To Sack Investor Portfolios?

By | Current Affairs and ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, Global ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

In December of 2007, I offered readers insight into a predictive model for recessions. Shortly thereafter, in the first week of January (2008), Investor’s Business Daily highlighted my five-point model and its 80% probability of economic contraction. One of the key components of the model is whether or not the future expectations of consumers are falling faster than how they feel about the present economic circumstances. The Conference Board’s Present Situation Index – an assessment of current business and labor…

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Vive La Résistance? Investor Sentiment May Tell The Tale For Stocks

By | Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs, Utilities ETFs | No Comments

Have we already witnessed the bursting of a stock balloon? Or, in contrast, have we merely experienced a volatile corrective phase in the continuation of the longest bull market on record? According to research at GMO, the bubble has burst and there is more downside to come. The author of a recent GMO white paper, Martin Tarlie, establishes effervescent particulars in a historical context. Specifically, when valuations become temporarily explosive — 1929, the late 1990s, 2017-18 — they are “averting the mean.”…

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Gundlach Is Right About Junk Bonds And Stocks

By | Bond ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Stock enthusiasts think the worst is behind us. Of course, they appear to be ignoring the fact that bear market rallies are quite common, and that the current upswing may just fit the bill. The average bear rally in history is approximately 11%. We stand at roughly 11.5% off of the correction lows right now. What’s more, there’s a fair amount of technical resistance in and around the S&P 500 range between 2625 and 2650. Credit key players in the…

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Let’s Not Kid Ourselves… The Market Will Remain Under Pressure

By | China ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

High profile market watchers have pointed out that there have only been four times in the last nine decades when back-to-back calendar year stock declines occurred. The years? 1929-1932, 1939-1941, 1973-1974, and 2000-2002. This could be encouraging news for stock enthusiasts were it not for the fact that 1929-1932 and 2000-2002 are included in the list. Valuation levels today have some of the same features that they did leading into the Great Depression and heading into the turn-of-the-century tech bubble….

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