So Goes Apple, So Goes The U.S. Market

By | Asia ETFs, Bond ETFs, China ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, Energy ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, Global ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Semiconductor ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Apple (AAPL) has been one of my largest individual holdings for the bulk of the post-recession stock bull. I believed in it when it was trading for one-tenth of its current value back in 2009. I even believed in it when it plummeted 40% in the winter of 2012-2013. Back then, though, Apple’s troubles did not adversely affect the broader equity rally. On the contrary. The S&P 500 exhibited all of the signs of a powerful uptrend. More recently, Apple…

Read More

Why The Economic Slowdown Will Rattle Stock Investors

By | Bond ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Energy ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Materials ETFs, Real Estate ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

The economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), grew at 4.2% in the second quarter. It slowed to 3.5% in the third quarter. Meanwhile, Q4 projections have been coming in closer to 2.9%. An optimistic “take” would be to exclaim that the 2% pace that has been the hallmark of the current expansion is now in the rear-view mirror. For 2018 and beyond, we have kicked it into a higher gear (3%) due to tax cuts and regulation curtailment. A…

Read More

Marching Orders: Key Indicator Issues Signal To Reduce Stock Risk

By | Asia ETFs, China ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Financial ETFs, Health ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, Transportation ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Financial stocks should benefit from phenomenal employment trends as well as rising rates. Yet the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) is down roughly 12% from a 2018 high and down nearly 5% year-to-date. Cyclical stocks should excel in a strong economic environment. Nevertheless, the iShares Transportation Average ETF (IYT) is down approximately 11% from its 2018 peak and down 3.5% this year. Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google? Market-driving FANG stocks? Tech leadership is off anywhere from 16%-30% from record-breaking tops….

Read More

Conspicuous Weakness In Market Internals A Bad Omen For Stocks?

By | Asia ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, Financial ETFs, Global ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Real Estate ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

One week ago, FactSet revealed that 250 of the stocks in the S&P 500 had dropped more than 20% from all-time peaks. The index itself, however, had only declined a modest 5% from its record top. Today, there are more indications of market distress. The Russell 2000, a popular small cap barometer, has dropped 13% from its high. The Dow Jones Transportation Average has fallen 13% as well. And the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) is sitting at a 52-week…

Read More

Higher Rates Will Hurt Stocks More Thank You Think (Part 2)

By | Bond ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

In my previous week’s commentary, I explained why higher interest rates will hurt stock assets more than many might think. Naysayers pointed to the fact that rate levels are still quite low on a historical basis. Unfortunately, these folks are neglecting to place their comprehension of borrowing costs in context. Take a look at the last 20 years of U.S. monetary policy via the Federal Funds Rate (FFR). The Federal Reserve’s tightening phase from the 4% level up to the…

Read More