Many Catalysts Can Wreck The QE-Inspired Bubble

By | Actively Managed ETFs, Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Financial ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Does the stock market care about the after-tax profits generated by corporations? Not in the era of Federal Reserve QE (a.k.a. “quantitative easing,” “balance sheet expansion” or “electronic money printing.”) Over the last five years, stock prices for the S&P 500 have gained more than 50%. Meanwhile, after-tax profits at non-financial companies have actually declined in the period. Is that sustainable? Credit the Fed for its QE-inspired wealth effect. Some believe that the Fed stopped QE when they halted purchases with the…

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Here’s Why You Need To Hedge Your Stock Investments

By | Actively Managed ETFs, Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Financial ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Stock market records have a way of enthralling everyone. However, the stock market is not currently reflecting the economy or the corporate backdrop. For example, one may hear that the job market is strong. Yet job growth and job openings are both fading. One may be told that the consumer is spending. On the other hand, year-over-year retail sales (2.88%) are well below last year (4.58%). In a similar vein, The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell to a nine-month low…

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3 Ways To Invest In Stocks (Even When The Ride Is Coming To An End)

By | Actively Managed ETFs, Bond ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

The U.S. economy is appallingly dependent on the “wealth effect.” And the U.S. Federal Reserve knows it. Just how “easy” is the Fed’s monetary policy? The real Fed Funds Rate (FFR) is at -0.8% right now. The last time the inflation-adjusted FFR was down at -0.8% had been 8-9 months into the Great Recession (10/2008). Before that, the country had been 8-9 months into the 2001 recession (12/2001). Pushing the cost of capital to insanely cheap places used to be…

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From Here To The Election: Total Returns For Treasury Bonds Will Trump Stocks

By | Asia ETFs, Bond ETFs, China ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Can you force credit on those who are not necessarily asking for it? Even at ultra-low rates? Consider homebuyers. Mortgage rates are dramatically lower than they were a year ago. Regardless, the median new home sales price has had to drop significantly to entice fresh borrowing. At some point, consumers and businesses may choose to avoid more debt altogether. It simply won’t matter how cheap the cost of capital becomes. (That’s what transpires during a recession.) In truth, we’ve already seen…

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Why Dividend ETFs, REIT ETFs and Low Volatility ETFs Still Work

By | Bond ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Financial ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts | No Comments

Many investors are aware that the current economic expansion is the longest in U.S. history. 10 years and six months. Some believe that the growth does not need to end. Ever. They quip, “Economic expansions don’t die of old age.” Others wonder if the business cycle will end soon. After all, every decade on record has experienced at least one recession. The problem with focusing on when the next recession will occur? It assumes that asset prices decline dramatically because…

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Just A Manufacturing Recession? Stocks and Bonds Think There’s More To It

By | Asia ETFs, China ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Global ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs | No Comments

Six weeks ago, I made the case that the “ex-U.S.” stock bear began in January of 2018. It was a relatively easy case to make. After all, the MSCI World Ex USA Index fell more than 20% from its all-time high and has yet to recover. Even though the S&P 500 and the Dow did not fall 20% from their January 2018 peak, there has been minimal stock progress across 20 months. The Wilshire 5000 provides clear evidence that the…

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