Category

Bond ETFs

Markets Priced For Perfection Rarely Get What They ‘Price In’

By | Bond ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Global ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

It is almost inconceivable. Just 10 years ago, you could purchase a 3-year Treasury and sock away a risk free rate of return of nearly 6%. Right now? A paltry 1.5%. It follows that, today, one must take enormous chances to generate an income stream up and above the pace of inflation. And that’s only if you believe inflation gauges placing the annual rate in the neighborhood of 2%. For example, let’s assume an individual purchases a 5-year Treasury for…

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Should Stock And Bond Investors Continue Their ‘Hop of Hope?’

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Financial ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Stock investors have made a “hop of hope” since the election of Donald J. Trump. Specifically, the new administration’s dedication to the repatriation of foreign profits, the lowering of corporate tax rates and the reduction of onerous regulations may create impressive wage growth as well as momentous economic growth. Keep in mind, year-over-year wage growth and annual GDP growth during the nearly eight years of recovery fell way short of pre-Great Recession growth rates. Wages have grown at a sub-par…

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What Happens When A Weakening Economy Meets Fed Tightening, Asset Valuation Extremes And Political Unpredictability?

By | Bond ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

We are now entering the 3rd longest economic expansion since World War II. The growth of the last 12 months, however, came in at the slowest pace since the recessionary transition year of 2009. Specifically, gross domestic product (GDP) for calendar year 2016 was only 1.6%. And it is the third time since the financial collapse that annual economic growth sank below 2%. Keep in mind, when economic weakness threatened to derail financial markets in 2011 as well as 2013,…

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Why Some Investors Are Selling the ‘Fiscal Stimulus’ News

By | Bond ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

I came across an interesting data set for stock market performance for incoming Presidents of the United States. In their initial month, the results might be described as underwhelming. Upon the November election of Trump, investor hope reigned supreme on everything from corporate tax reduction to Dodd-Frank regulatory restructuring to monumental spending on infrastructure enhancement. Six weeks later? Many may be troubled by the haziness surrounding the specifics. Take the “unaffordable” Affordable Care Act (ACA). A large percentage of citizens and…

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Strong Jobs Report? Depends Upon Whom You Ask

By | Bond ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Bespoke Investment Group provides some of the best investment insight to individual and institutional investors alike. That said, their “tweet” this morning described Friday’s job report as a definitive sign of a tight labor market. The implication? Employment in America is firing on all cylinders. I beg to differ. Let’s begin with several key particulars. Media outlets reported that U-3 unemployment ticked higher from 4.6% to 4.7%. When the “headline” U-3 number goes down, most commentary focuses on a lower…

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What Lessons Will Dow 20,000 Teach You?

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Special Sectors ETFs, Transportation ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

TrimTabs, a premier research provider to the institutional investment community, recently identified three troublesome aspects of current bullishness in stocks. First, the dollar value of U.S. stock buyback announcements has registered a five-year low. That’s problematic because corporate acquisition of stock shares has been one of the primary drivers of price gains during the current bull run. Second, according to the chief executive officer at TrimTabs, David Santschi, the pace of insider buying dwindled to its slowest pace in five…

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Pro-Business Tax Cuts And Fiscal Stimulus Will Not ‘Trump’ Tighter Financial Conditions

By | Asia ETFs, Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Global ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Small Cap ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

What is GDP per capita? It is the value of all goods and services produced in an economy divided by the number of people living in it. Why is it important? It is one of the premier ways to identify both the comfort level of a country’s citizens at a given moment in time as well as the well-being of citizens over time. At the present moment, people living in the United States have it pretty good. Not quite as…

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You’re Gonna Pay How Much? Valuation Extremes Are No Longer ‘Justified’ By Ultra-Low Rates

By | Bond ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

For several years, ultra-low interest rates “justified” paying higher stock prices for anemic earnings growth. The 10-year Treasury yield traded in a tight range between 2.0%-2.5%. Borrowing costs remained stable or continued to fall. Indeed, the notion that rates would remain extremely low for a very long time encouraged many to pony up for a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 19. Throughout the first ten months of 2016, though, a sub-2% 10-year Treasury prompted investors to pay even higher equity valuations….

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‘Member 3.5% Mortgages? ‘Member Low Priced Stocks? I ‘Member!

By | Bond ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Assume for the moment that the corporate profit recession is finally over. In addition, presuppose that the earnings per share (EPS) growth rate for S&P 500 companies will approximate its median rate (11%) over the coming year. Moreover, imagine that a Forward P/E of 17.0 represents “fair value” for stocks in an era of ultra-low interest rates. (Note: The 35-year average is approximately 13.0). Now let’s check data from from S&P Dow Jones Indices. The 12-month estimate of operating earnings for…

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Three Reasons Why The 30-Year Bond Bull Market Is Still Intact

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Global ETFs, International ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

How quickly they forget. For 30 years, mainstream analysts have been declaring the end of the secular bull market in bonds. And for 30 years, they’ve been dead wrong. Consider the recent history of the economic recovery since the Great Recession. Specifically, bond yields spiked after the Federal Reserve wrapped up quantitative easing (QE) in the spring of 2010. Scores of analysts declared the end of the bond bull. Were they right? Hardly. Rates cratered alongside the Fed’s about-face on…

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