Category

Bond ETFs

The S&P 500 and Stephen Hawking: A Theory on “Peak Everything”

By | Bond ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

The NASDAQ served up an annualized return of 66% in its final two years of dot-com mania. Only after the balloon had burst did people begin to question the lunacy of paying 10x revenue for the privilege of being a shareholder. Ironically enough, since early 2016, the top 10 growth names in tech collectively produced an annualized return of 67%. That’s right. The NYSE FANG+ Index has topped turn-of-the-century craziness. For the current bull-bear cycle, then, we may be witnessing…

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If Consumers Stop Spending, Stocks And Real Estate Will Slide

By | Bond ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Real Estate ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Here is an economic data point that you will not hear about in the mainstream financial media: U.S. wage growth in 2017 had been the weakest since 2010. In fact, labor costs rose a paltry 0.35% on a year-over-year basis. Are higher wages for workers, then, right around the bend? Some believe that the tighter labor market is about to spark wage inflation. Yet it seems that this could be wishful thinking. Actual inflation has shown up in housing costs (e.g., rent, repairs,…

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The Most Dangerous Stock Market Ever? Either Way, Have A Plan

By | Bond ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Today’s stock market may not be as dangerous as 2000’s dot-com euphoria or 2008’s asset balloon. Why not? Global central banks are likely to act quicker and with far more “shock-n-awe” to minimize bearish price depreciation than they did in the previous sell-offs. Some argue that policy efforts would fail to reinvigorate yet another wealth effect because central banks are out of ammunition. I disagree. Indeed, I expect that monetary gamesmanship in the near future will result in an average…

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Brakes Applied To The Borrowing Tires Can Hurt Stock Investors

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Mainstream media commentators regularly tell you that higher interest rates in 2018 will not threaten your portfolio. After all, they assure you, tax reform added piles of dollars to the bottom line profits of corporations as well as placed mounds of money back into the pockets of millions of households. Can one be certain, however, that fiscal stimulus (e.g., new spending package, recent tax overhaul, etc.) will neutralize increased borrowing costs? For example, a large chunk of prospective homeowners have already dropped…

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Are American Stocks Great Again?

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs, Utilities ETFs | No Comments

The U.S Department of the Treasury currently forecasts that the national debt will reach the $25 trillion mark by the 3rd quarter of 2020. That’s just two and a half years from now. What is $25 trillion among American friends? If you combine the debts of every other sovereign state on the planet, you still do not reach $25 trillion. Our nation is a serial debtor. It is easier to dismiss the enormity of the obligation when government is capable of…

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Nothing To Fear In The Stock Market But The Fear Of Missing Out Itself

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Industrial ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

I have quite a few clients in their eighties and a number in their late eighties. That is not particularly surprising when your client base is chock-full of retirees and near retirees. What did surprise me a bit is a call from an 87-year old client yesterday afternoon. She called to inquire why her friends are making more money in the stock market than she has been making recently. “Are most of your friends in their 40s or 50s?” I…

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Warning: Side Effects May Include Rapid Stock Price Depreciation

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Leveraged ETFs, Popular Posts, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Over the last decade, the most influential central banks around the world have printed electronic currency credits to acquire $14 trillion in assets. The effect on stocks, bonds and real estate? Remarkable price gains as well as records galore. On the other hand, quantitative easing (QE) activity by the U.S. Federal Reserve, People’s Bank of China, European Central Bank and others has created a variety of implausible circumstances. The Swiss National Bank has become one of the largest shareholders in…

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Speculative Frenzy Smells More And More Like 2000

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, International ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Scores of extremely bullish investors insist that the financial markets today do not resemble the technology stock craze near the tail end of the late 1990s. That position is getting more difficult to defend. For example, market capitalization to GDP is a long-term stock valuation indicator with a high correlation (0.89) to subsequent 10-year returns. The valuation tool is frequently referred to as the “Warren Buffett Indicator.” The reason? In 2001, the Oracle of Omaha dubbed it as “…the best single measure of…

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If You Bought The Tax Reform Rumors, Will You Be Selling The Tax Cut News?

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Since the Great Recession, each time that the U.S. economy bogged down, the U.S. Federal Reserve began printing additional electronic dollar credits to acquire billions in assets (a.k.a. “quantitative easing” or “QE”). And the efforts were primarily responsible for pushing interest rates lower, as well as stock and real estate prices higher. Take a look at the blue line in the chart below. It represents the electronic money printing activity of central banks across the world. Not only did stocks surge ahead…

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Managing Assets When Markets Become Irrationally Effervescent

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

When I co-hosted a national talk radio show in 2000, tech stock inquiries came furious and fast. JDSU or Sun Micro? Powerwave or Cisco? Webvan or theGlobe.com? Few expressed concern about a recession. Few wondered if they might lose money by investing in the New Economy’s Internet favorites. Even fewer callers believed that they might want to take less risk rather than more. Granted, tech stocks may not be as wildly overvalued as they were in 2000. That said, the U.S….

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