Stock market records have a way of enthralling everyone. However, the stock market is not currently reflecting the economy or the corporate backdrop. For example, one may hear that the job market is strong. Yet job growth and job openings are both fading. One may be told that the consumer is spending. On the other hand, year-over-year retail sales (2.88%) are well below last year (4.58%). In a similar vein, The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell to a nine-month low…
Six weeks ago, I made the case that the “ex-U.S.” stock bear began in January of 2018. It was a relatively easy case to make. After all, the MSCI World Ex USA Index fell more than 20% from its all-time high and has yet to recover. Even though the S&P 500 and the Dow did not fall 20% from their January 2018 peak, there has been minimal stock progress across 20 months. The Wilshire 5000 provides clear evidence that the…
According to Jay Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. economy is performing well. It is difficult to take the assessment seriously. After all, as recently as mid-December, the Fed intended to raise interest rates three to four times in 2019. By January, central bank committee members wiped away the possibility of any rate hikes during the year. And now? The Fed is preparing the world for rate cuts as soon as July. “We will act as needed including promptly if that’s…
