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Commodity ETFs

So Goes Apple, So Goes The U.S. Market

By | Asia ETFs, Bond ETFs, China ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, Energy ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, Global ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Semiconductor ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Apple (AAPL) has been one of my largest individual holdings for the bulk of the post-recession stock bull. I believed in it when it was trading for one-tenth of its current value back in 2009. I even believed in it when it plummeted 40% in the winter of 2012-2013. Back then, though, Apple’s troubles did not adversely affect the broader equity rally. On the contrary. The S&P 500 exhibited all of the signs of a powerful uptrend. More recently, Apple…

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Marching Orders: Key Indicator Issues Signal To Reduce Stock Risk

By | Asia ETFs, China ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Financial ETFs, Health ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, Transportation ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Financial stocks should benefit from phenomenal employment trends as well as rising rates. Yet the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) is down roughly 12% from a 2018 high and down nearly 5% year-to-date. Cyclical stocks should excel in a strong economic environment. Nevertheless, the iShares Transportation Average ETF (IYT) is down approximately 11% from its 2018 peak and down 3.5% this year. Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google? Market-driving FANG stocks? Tech leadership is off anywhere from 16%-30% from record-breaking tops….

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Is The World’s Largest Hedge Fund Wrong About Stock Assets?

By | Bond ETFs, China ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, Global ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Bridgewater Associates has roughly $160 billion under management, making it the largest hedge fund on the planet. Exchange traded funds like Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets (VWO) the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and the S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY) head the list of top holdings. Last week, Bridgewater said, “We are bearish on financial assets as the U.S. economy progresses toward the late cycle, liquidity has been removed, and the markets are pricing in a continuation of recent conditions despite the…

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Why Are Investors Considering Alternatives To Stocks?

By | Commodity ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Natural Resources ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Telecom ETFs, US Markets and ETFs, Utilities ETFs | No Comments

Mortgage interest payments as well as non—mortgage interest payments are costing consumers more and more of their disposable income. Consider the non-mortgage variety. Personal interest payments have already recovered levels not seen since the financial crisis. To be sure, interest payments are not the only thing taking a bite out of the cost of living. Oil prices have moved meaningfully higher. According to a 2005 study by the Federal Reserve, oil price increases adversely affect aggregate consumer spending. Is it…

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The Big Bad Bull Gets Meeker And Weaker

By | Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Financial ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Can the U.S. economy grow without the federal government overspending? Apparently not. Since the financial crisis in 2008, GDP has only grown alongside massive Treasury debt issuance. Some might argue that it does not matter how the economy expands as long as it is expanding. After all, the U.S. is still capable of paying the interest on its mushrooming obligations. On the flip side, the bond market does not believe that the near-term economic picture will be quite so rosy. The paltry 0.18%…

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Don’t Put All Of Your Eggs In The ‘Tax Cuts Are Coming’ Basket

By | Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Short ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

It does not matter what you call it or how you explain it. The Trump trade. A tax reform rally. Heck, you can attribute the longest uptrend in history without a 3% pullback to global quantitative easing (QE). It makes very little difference. Stocks have been stupendous. Does a record number of trading days without a 3% correction mean anything? Not in isolation. The second-longest streak occurred between January 1995 and January 1996. And yet, back then, the phenomenal ’90s…

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Bonds Say To Stocks, “We’re Just Not That Into You.”

By | Actively Managed ETFs, Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Five years ago, several European countries (e.g., Portugal, Italy, Greece, etc.) appeared as if they might default on their sovereign debt obligations. Gold prices spiked. The Japanese yen soared. U.S. Treasury bond yields plummeted. And the S&P 500 fell nearly 20% before globally coordinated central bank activity resuscitated investor appetite for U.S stocks. Today, Europe appears to be on the verge of another euro-zone crisis. This time, the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union has threatened to destabilize the…

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Zero Rate Hikes In 2016? It Still Won’t Be Enough To Help The Economy Or Stocks

By | Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

According to the Goldman Sachs Current Activity Indicator (CAI), economic well-being peaked in November of 2014. The erosion from 4.1% down to 1.3% over the last 18 months demonstrates just how vulnerable the U.S. economy currently is. Not surprisingly, economic weakness has taken its toll on stock assets. The S&P 500 has not gained meaningful ground since the Fed officially stopped its bond purchases on December 18, 2014. Smaller company stocks in the Russell 2000? A bit of depreciation over the…

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Are You Willing To Be The ‘Greater Fool’ By Acquiring More Stocks Today?

By | Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs, Utilities ETFs | No Comments

It does not matter if stocks are insanely overvalued, as long as there’s a more foolish participant who is willing to pay a higher price. That’s the essence of the “greater fool theory.” And right now, there are more foolish buyers that want “in the game” than risk-reducing sellers who want to scale back. It does not even seem to matter that corporate profits have slumped roughly 18.5% from their peak on 9/30/2014. Certainly, earnings per share growth has not…

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Real Risk Taking Will Not Return Until The Fed Flip-Flops

By | Asia ETFs, Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs, Utilities ETFs | No Comments

In a strong bull market, higher volatility stocks tend to outperform lower volatility stocks. The PowerShares S&P 500 High Beta (SPHB):iShares USA Minimum Volatility (USMV) price ratio demonstrates how the bull market in equities has been giving way since the highs in the Dow and the S&P 500 one year ago (May 2015). Similarly, in a strong bull market, growth-oriented assets tend to outperform value-oriented holdings. Instead, the iShares Core Growth (IUSG):Vanguard Value (VTV) price ratio illustrates a shift in preference…

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