Category

Consumer ETFs

When You Exit The Stock Market, Don’t Let The Door Hit You On Your Way Out

By | Asia ETFs, Biotechnology ETFs, Bond ETFs, China ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, Financial ETFs, Global ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs, Utilities ETFs | No Comments

You cannot make this stuff up. The median stock in the S&P 500 has never been more overvalued on price-to-earnings growth (PEG) and price-to-sales (P/S). On a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) basis – where profitability expectations already reflect pie-in-the-sky speculation – the median company’s shares trade in the 96th percentile. That’s pretty darn pricey! Credit Goldman Sachs for the assessment. For that matter, give the financial conglomerate kudos for acknowledging the strong possibility that one might be wise to “sell in…

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Do You Have Rally Envy Or Bear Market Anxiety?

By | Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, Financial ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

For those who have paid attention, the last actual bond purchase by the Federal Reserve occurred on December 18, 2014. Why does the date matter? For one thing, research demonstrated that the expansion and manipulation of the Fed’s balance sheet (i.e., QE1, QE2, Operation Twist, QE3) corresponded to 93% of the current bull market’s gains. 93%! Secondly, stocks have struggled to make any tangible progress since the central bank of the United States ended six years of unconventional monetary policy…

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Should Investors Take Notice When Reward Prospects Diminish?

By | Asia ETFs, Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

The world’s central banks devise conventional and unconventional ways to depress interest rates. The impact? Consumers purchase goods and services on credit with favorable financing terms. Corporations issue low-yielding debt in order to buy back shares of their own stock. And governments issue low-yielding treasuries to continue spending far more than they generate in tax revenue. For some investors, then, the only thing that matters in the determination of whether to acquire assets like stock and real estate is ultra-low interest…

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No Bull. Economic Weakness Continues To Pressure Corporate Profitability

By | Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Is the U.S. economy really in great shape? The U.S. Federal Reserve does not seem to think so. They started the year with an intention of raising the overnight lending rate four times – from 0.25% to 1.25%. In March, they announced that it would more likely be a mere two. And today, the Atlanta Fed downgraded its Q1 estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) to a new low for the year (0.4%). Granted, GDP for the fourth quarter of…

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No Sales, No Profits, No Bull: What Happens When Valuations And Central Banks Collide

By | Asia ETFs, Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Latin America ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Total business sales – sales by wholesalers, manufacturers and retailers – have fallen 5% from their July 2014 peak of $1.365 trillion. At $1.296 trillion for January 2016, total business sales have dropped back to where they were in January of 2013 ($1.293 trillion). In fact, the erosion of total sales by American businesses are even uglier when one takes inflation into account. Over the last 20 years, whenever total business sales continued on an upward trajectory, the U.S. economy steered clear…

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Are U.S. Stocks Really The Only Game In Town?

By | Bond ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Industrial ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Mid Cap ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs, Utilities ETFs | No Comments

The S&P 500 notched an all-time record high of 2130 on May 21, 2015. That was 10 months ago. Since that date, the popular gauge has suffered two faith-rattling corrections – a 12% decline in August of 2015 and a 14% pullback in February of 2016. Granted, U.S. stocks rallied back to respectable levels after each sell-off. On the other hand, the index has yet to make any bull market progress for the better part of a year. Regrettably, news providers have…

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Seven Year Bull Market? It May Only Be Six Years and 2 Months After All

By | Asia ETFs, Biotechnology ETFs, Bond ETFs, China ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Financial ETFs, Retail ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

What do these 10 companies – Wal-Mart, Macy’s, Kohl’s, Sears, Target, Best Buy, Office Depot, K-Mart, J.C Penney, Gap – all have in common? Each one of them is closing down a slew of retail storefronts. The “talking heads” on CNBC want you to believe that brick-and-mortar woes are merely a reflection of the consumer’s preference to shop online. Maybe. Or perhaps shuttering the doors will help boost the bottom-line profitability of retail company shareholders. After all, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF…

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How Long Will “Risk-Off” Sectors Outperform Riskier Stock and Bond Segments?

By | Bond ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Financial ETFs, Industrial ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, US Markets and ETFs, Utilities ETFs | No Comments

Some stock sectors thrive when an economic recovery gains traction. Industrials tend to perform well due to increases in the demand for capital goods. In a similar vein, consumer discretionary companies spike alongside improvements in employment data, where people spend more of the money they make. One can visualize the above-described outperformance of cyclical sectors by charting corresponding ETFs over the initial six years of the current economic recovery. The Guggenheim S&P 500® Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary ETF (RCD) as well as the Guggenheim…

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Allocation Strategy During The Corporate Debt Hangover

By | Bond ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Latin America ETFs, Short ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Are corporations in great shape? Three consecutive quarters of declines in earnings suggest that they are not. Worse yet, record high leverage coupled with close-to-record low interest coverage indicate stress within corporate balance sheets. Beginning with the “profit recession,” it has become fashionable to describe the deterioration as a function of the price collapse in oil and gas. However, that assessment fails the sniff test on three different levels. One, six of the ten S&P 500 economic segments share in…

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Damage Control: Is It Too Late Too Become More Defensive?

By | Bond ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Retail ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

A manufacturing recession doesn’t matter… until it does. Consider industrial production. For the third straight month, industrial production, which includes mining, utilities, as well as manufacturing, contracted. How anemic is American industry right now? The year-over-year percentage change provides a helpful snapshot of the weakness. Not surprisingly, media mega-stars routinely dismiss manufacturers, miners and utility providers as relics of yesterday’s economy. They maintain that consumers are the only ones who count in a consumption-based society. The erosion of the high-paying…

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