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Currency ETFs

Why Some Investors Are Selling the ‘Fiscal Stimulus’ News

By | Bond ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

I came across an interesting data set for stock market performance for incoming Presidents of the United States. In their initial month, the results might be described as underwhelming. Upon the November election of Trump, investor hope reigned supreme on everything from corporate tax reduction to Dodd-Frank regulatory restructuring to monumental spending on infrastructure enhancement. Six weeks later? Many may be troubled by the haziness surrounding the specifics. Take the “unaffordable” Affordable Care Act (ACA). A large percentage of citizens and…

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Strong Jobs Report? Depends Upon Whom You Ask

By | Bond ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Bespoke Investment Group provides some of the best investment insight to individual and institutional investors alike. That said, their “tweet” this morning described Friday’s job report as a definitive sign of a tight labor market. The implication? Employment in America is firing on all cylinders. I beg to differ. Let’s begin with several key particulars. Media outlets reported that U-3 unemployment ticked higher from 4.6% to 4.7%. When the “headline” U-3 number goes down, most commentary focuses on a lower…

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Predictions: 3 Things That Will NOT Happen in 2017

By | Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Popular Posts, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Media personalities love to play the prediction game, particularly in January. Where will the S&P 500 wind up at year’s end? What will happen to interest rates? And after Mariah Carey’s infamous New Year’s Eve non-performance, which celebrity will have the next public meltdown? I enjoy the prognostication pastime as much as any individual. It helps to clarify what matters to me as an investor (as well as what doesn’t). In particular, no matter what happens to the world at…

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Bought the Super-Charged Growth Rumor? Prepare to Sell the Mediocre Growth News

By | Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

If I had to identify a half-dozen of my favorite movies, The Shawshank Redemption would definitely make the cut. It may even be on your Top Five list. Why am I bringing it up? In essence, the film produced one of the more inspirational quotes in motion picture history. The hero pens a letter to his incarcerated friend and he included, “Remember, Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies.” Ironically, hope is not particularly…

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You’re Gonna Pay How Much? Valuation Extremes Are No Longer ‘Justified’ By Ultra-Low Rates

By | Bond ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

For several years, ultra-low interest rates “justified” paying higher stock prices for anemic earnings growth. The 10-year Treasury yield traded in a tight range between 2.0%-2.5%. Borrowing costs remained stable or continued to fall. Indeed, the notion that rates would remain extremely low for a very long time encouraged many to pony up for a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 19. Throughout the first ten months of 2016, though, a sub-2% 10-year Treasury prompted investors to pay even higher equity valuations….

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‘Member 3.5% Mortgages? ‘Member Low Priced Stocks? I ‘Member!

By | Bond ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Assume for the moment that the corporate profit recession is finally over. In addition, presuppose that the earnings per share (EPS) growth rate for S&P 500 companies will approximate its median rate (11%) over the coming year. Moreover, imagine that a Forward P/E of 17.0 represents “fair value” for stocks in an era of ultra-low interest rates. (Note: The 35-year average is approximately 13.0). Now let’s check data from from S&P Dow Jones Indices. The 12-month estimate of operating earnings for…

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No Soup For You! Companies Will Slow Down Their Dividend Payouts And Stock Buybacks

By | Bond ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Public companies seldom distribute more to shareholders than what they earn in a given year. It is categorically uncommon for those corporations to pay out more in dividends and share buybacks than what they earn for two years in a row. Three years? That’s never happened. Take a look at the total payout ratio dating back to 1964. The ratio (dividends + buybacks/corporate earnings) surpassed 100% for two consecutive years as the U.S. dealt with the early ’90s economic downturn…

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What Is The Most Opportunistic Asset Class Right Now?

By | Bond ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Financial ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Materials ETFs, Natural Resources ETFs, Real Estate ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Are the new all-time highs in U.S. large cap stocks as big a deal as the media would have you believe? On a year-over-year basis, other asset classes have been more impressive. Bonds via Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND), gold via SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and the “risk-off” Japanese yen via Currency Shares Yen Trust (FXY) have all outperformed the S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY). Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ) that captures a wide range of real estate investment trusts has…

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Stocks and Bonds: Which Asset Class Balloon Will Pop First?

By | Asia ETFs, Bond ETFs, Currency ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, Global ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

In 2013, the S&P 500 closed at a record high at the same time that the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield closed at a record low. The reason? The Federal Reserve had been buying hundreds of millions of government bonds as part of its quantitative easing (QE) program. Indeed, back in 2013, Fed leaders determined that the country still required emergency-level economic stimulus. Here in 2016, the S&P 500 may close at a record high above 2130 at the same…

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Bonds Say To Stocks, “We’re Just Not That Into You.”

By | Actively Managed ETFs, Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Five years ago, several European countries (e.g., Portugal, Italy, Greece, etc.) appeared as if they might default on their sovereign debt obligations. Gold prices spiked. The Japanese yen soared. U.S. Treasury bond yields plummeted. And the S&P 500 fell nearly 20% before globally coordinated central bank activity resuscitated investor appetite for U.S stocks. Today, Europe appears to be on the verge of another euro-zone crisis. This time, the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union has threatened to destabilize the…

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