Category

Currency ETFs

Why Should Stock Investors Pay 2016 Prices For 2012 Profits?

By | Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Since the S&P 500 logged an all-time record (2130.82) 11 months ago, there have been two violent price sell-offs of more than 10%. On both occasions, the popular index rallied back to recapture the 2100 mark. Yet the unknowable question still remains; that is, will the bull market demonstrate its durability by notching a new closing high, or did U.S. stocks hit a plateau in May of 2015? My contention is that U.S. stocks topped out last May. Primarily, the downward sloping…

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No Bull. Economic Weakness Continues To Pressure Corporate Profitability

By | Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Is the U.S. economy really in great shape? The U.S. Federal Reserve does not seem to think so. They started the year with an intention of raising the overnight lending rate four times – from 0.25% to 1.25%. In March, they announced that it would more likely be a mere two. And today, the Atlanta Fed downgraded its Q1 estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) to a new low for the year (0.4%). Granted, GDP for the fourth quarter of…

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No Sales, No Profits, No Bull: What Happens When Valuations And Central Banks Collide

By | Asia ETFs, Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Latin America ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Total business sales – sales by wholesalers, manufacturers and retailers – have fallen 5% from their July 2014 peak of $1.365 trillion. At $1.296 trillion for January 2016, total business sales have dropped back to where they were in January of 2013 ($1.293 trillion). In fact, the erosion of total sales by American businesses are even uglier when one takes inflation into account. Over the last 20 years, whenever total business sales continued on an upward trajectory, the U.S. economy steered clear…

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Are U.S. Stocks Really The Only Game In Town?

By | Bond ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Industrial ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Mid Cap ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs, Utilities ETFs | No Comments

The S&P 500 notched an all-time record high of 2130 on May 21, 2015. That was 10 months ago. Since that date, the popular gauge has suffered two faith-rattling corrections – a 12% decline in August of 2015 and a 14% pullback in February of 2016. Granted, U.S. stocks rallied back to respectable levels after each sell-off. On the other hand, the index has yet to make any bull market progress for the better part of a year. Regrettably, news providers have…

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Are Stocks Cheap Now? Get GAAP If You Want To Get Real

By | Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Energy ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

The times they are a changin’. In the ’80s as well as the ’90s, corporations reported quarterly results that corresponded to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). These days, the vast majority of companies report “pro-forma” earnings that adjust for unusual, special or one-time circumstances. Take a look at the dramatic rise in the percentage of companies serving up adjusted profits per share rather than GAAP-based results. In June of 2010, 70% provided adjusted earnings. However, as the pressure to engineer…

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If Investors Get More Stimulus, Will They Take More Risk?

By | Bond ETFs, Currency ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Mid Cap ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

The U.S. economy continues to show signs of frailty. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at a feeble pace of just 0.7% in the 4th quarter. In the same vein, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP forecast for the first quarter of 2016 is just 1.2%. There’s more. The manufacturing segment of the economy has contracted for four consecutive months. Meanwhile, year-over-year growth for total business sales as well as retail have steadily eroded. Also, year-over-year activity for corporate spending on tangible assets…

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Why Good News And Bad News Are Not Helping Stocks Anymore

By | Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Short ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Since the Great Recession’s inception, whenever the stock market dropped like a steel anvil or the U.S. economy showed signs of weakness, the Federal Reserve acted to inspire investor confidence. For example, in November of 2008, when the Fed announced its first quantitative easing (QE1) program to buy mortgage-backed securities (MBS), stocks rocketed 10% in two weeks. The enthusiasm wore off quickly. In March of 2009, the central bank of the United States “doubled down” on the MBS dollar amount…

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Asset Class Update: Is Diversification Still A Free Lunch?

By | Biotechnology ETFs, Bond ETFs, China ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Defense & Aerospace ETFs, Dividend ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, Energy ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, Financial ETFs, Frontier Market ETFs, Global ETFs, Industrial ETFs, International ETFs, Internet ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Mid Cap ETFs, Retail ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

According to Barry Ritholtz of Ritholtz Wealth Management, a frequent contributor to CNBC as well as Bloomberg, “the beauty of diversification is that it’s about as close as you can get to a free lunch in investing.” Since 2011, however, investors who diversified in stocks outside of the U.S. and who diversified across other asset types (e.g., commodities, currencies, gold, pipeline partnerships, etc.) have consistently underperformed the plain vanilla approach of owning the S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY) alongside a modest…

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Why The U.S. Stock Market Never Completely Recovered

By | Biotechnology ETFs, Bond ETFs, China ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, Energy ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, Global ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Natural Resources ETFs, Retail ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Some things go unnoticed. For example, the S&P 500 rallied 13% off its closing lows (1867) set in late August. Lost in the shuffle? The popular benchmark has yet to revisit its closing highs (2130) registered back in May. In essence, the corrective activity that began in the springtime as a function of a faltering global economy, overvalued equities and weakening market internals has yet to run its course. What’s more, these factors that led to the August-September sell-off in…

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The Markets Know What The Analysts And Economists Don’t

By | Bond ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

The best economists on the planet regularly hamper the investing community. For example, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) acknowledged in December of 2008 that a recession had started one year earlier (December 2007). Unfortunately, by December of 2008, the S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY) had already forfeited close to half of its value (46%). Similarly, by the time that NBER recognized the existence of the 2001 recession in November of that year, the S&P 500 had shed 29%…

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