Currency ETFs

May 12

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Real Risk Taking Will Not Return Until The Fed Flip-Flops

By Gary Gordon | Asia ETFs, Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs, Utilities ETFs | No Comments

In a strong bull market, higher volatility stocks tend to outperform lower volatility stocks. The PowerShares S&P 500 High Beta (SPHB):iShares USA Minimum Volatility (USMV) price ratio demonstrates how the bull market in equities has been giving way since the highs in the Dow and the S&P 500 one year ago (May 2015). Similarly, in a strong bull market, growth-oriented assets tend to outperform value-oriented holdings. Instead, the iShares Core Growth (IUSG):Vanguard Value (VTV) price ratio illustrates a shift in preference…

May 10

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What Happens To ‘Hold-N-Hope’ Portfolios When An Economy Struggles To Expand?

By Gary Gordon | Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Some analysts may dismiss 115 years of economic data. I do not. In particular, if one averages the results of four respected stock valuation methodologies, one finds that stocks are wildly expensive. Greater irrationality in stock price exuberance only existed during conditions prior to the Great Depression circa 1929 and the tech wreck of 2000. Consider the chart below. Based on the analysis by Doug Short, the widely cited Vice President of Research at Advisor Perspectives, the U.S. stock market is overvalued by…

May 05

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Are You Considering “Sell In May, Go Away?”

By Gary Gordon | Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

One of the signs that a stock market may be transitioning from a bull to a bear? Participants dismiss exorbitant valuations, cast aside disturbing shifts in technical trends, disregard economic stagnation and scoff at historical comparisons. For instance, it has been 352 days since the Dow Jones Industrials Average registered an all-time record high in May of 2015. Since the 1920s, when the Dow has surpassed 350 calendar days without recovering a bull market peak, the index has dropped at least…

Apr 21

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Why Should Stock Investors Pay 2016 Prices For 2012 Profits?

By Gary Gordon | Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Since the S&P 500 logged an all-time record (2130.82) 11 months ago, there have been two violent price sell-offs of more than 10%. On both occasions, the popular index rallied back to recapture the 2100 mark. Yet the unknowable question still remains; that is, will the bull market demonstrate its durability by notching a new closing high, or did U.S. stocks hit a plateau in May of 2015? My contention is that U.S. stocks topped out last May. Primarily, the downward sloping…

Apr 05

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No Bull. Economic Weakness Continues To Pressure Corporate Profitability

By Gary Gordon | Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Is the U.S. economy really in great shape? The U.S. Federal Reserve does not seem to think so. They started the year with an intention of raising the overnight lending rate four times – from 0.25% to 1.25%. In March, they announced that it would more likely be a mere two. And today, the Atlanta Fed downgraded its Q1 estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) to a new low for the year (0.4%). Granted, GDP for the fourth quarter of…

Mar 31

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No Sales, No Profits, No Bull: What Happens When Valuations And Central Banks Collide

By Gary Gordon | Asia ETFs, Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Latin America ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Total business sales – sales by wholesalers, manufacturers and retailers – have fallen 5% from their July 2014 peak of $1.365 trillion. At $1.296 trillion for January 2016, total business sales have dropped back to where they were in January of 2013 ($1.293 trillion). In fact, the erosion of total sales by American businesses are even uglier when one takes inflation into account. Over the last 20 years, whenever total business sales continued on an upward trajectory, the U.S. economy steered clear…

Mar 22

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Are U.S. Stocks Really The Only Game In Town?

By Gary Gordon | Bond ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Industrial ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Mid Cap ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs, Utilities ETFs | No Comments

The S&P 500 notched an all-time record high of 2130 on May 21, 2015. That was 10 months ago. Since that date, the popular gauge has suffered two faith-rattling corrections – a 12% decline in August of 2015 and a 14% pullback in February of 2016. Granted, U.S. stocks rallied back to respectable levels after each sell-off. On the other hand, the index has yet to make any bull market progress for the better part of a year. Regrettably, news providers have…

Feb 25

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Are Stocks Cheap Now? Get GAAP If You Want To Get Real

By Gary Gordon | Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Energy ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

The times they are a changin’. In the ’80s as well as the ’90s, corporations reported quarterly results that corresponded to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). These days, the vast majority of companies report “pro-forma” earnings that adjust for unusual, special or one-time circumstances. Take a look at the dramatic rise in the percentage of companies serving up adjusted profits per share rather than GAAP-based results. In June of 2010, 70% provided adjusted earnings. However, as the pressure to engineer…

Feb 02

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If Investors Get More Stimulus, Will They Take More Risk?

By Gary Gordon | Bond ETFs, Currency ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Mid Cap ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

The U.S. economy continues to show signs of frailty. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at a feeble pace of just 0.7% in the 4th quarter. In the same vein, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP forecast for the first quarter of 2016 is just 1.2%. There’s more. The manufacturing segment of the economy has contracted for four consecutive months. Meanwhile, year-over-year growth for total business sales as well as retail have steadily eroded. Also, year-over-year activity for corporate spending on tangible assets…

Jan 20

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Why Good News And Bad News Are Not Helping Stocks Anymore

By Gary Gordon | Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Short ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Since the Great Recession’s inception, whenever the stock market dropped like a steel anvil or the U.S. economy showed signs of weakness, the Federal Reserve acted to inspire investor confidence. For example, in November of 2008, when the Fed announced its first quantitative easing (QE1) program to buy mortgage-backed securities (MBS), stocks rocketed 10% in two weeks. The enthusiasm wore off quickly. In March of 2009, the central bank of the United States “doubled down” on the MBS dollar amount…