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ETF Philosophy

From 50 To Zero: Why Investors Are Shunning International Stocks

By | Asia ETFs, Bond ETFs, China ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, Frontier Market ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Leading into 2008, emerging market stocks and international stocks dominated financial shows. “Talking heads” agreed that investors should allocate as much as 50% overseas for a well-diversified portfolio. The reasoning? One should be aligned with the world’s stock market pie. After all, half of the world’s market capitalization belonged to U.S. stocks and half belonged to stocks from elsewhere around the globe. However, the real reason had little to do with market capitalization. In truth, foreign stocks were dramatically outperforming…

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The Silencing of the Bears

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Global ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Since 2015, I have been less than enthusiastic about risk assets. And while I do not short the market, nor have I ever been completely divested from equities, investors have been rewarded for “going long.” Nevertheless, a review of the previous four years must note the 22 months of sideways stock movement that preceded the November 2016 election. The assessment must also account for the calendar year losses in 2018, especially for smaller-cap equities and foreign equities. The reason that…

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Vive La Résistance? Investor Sentiment May Tell The Tale For Stocks

By | Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs, Utilities ETFs | No Comments

Have we already witnessed the bursting of a stock balloon? Or, in contrast, have we merely experienced a volatile corrective phase in the continuation of the longest bull market on record? According to research at GMO, the bubble has burst and there is more downside to come. The author of a recent GMO white paper, Martin Tarlie, establishes effervescent particulars in a historical context. Specifically, when valuations become temporarily explosive — 1929, the late 1990s, 2017-18 — they are “averting the mean.”…

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Gundlach Is Right About Junk Bonds And Stocks

By | Bond ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Stock enthusiasts think the worst is behind us. Of course, they appear to be ignoring the fact that bear market rallies are quite common, and that the current upswing may just fit the bill. The average bear rally in history is approximately 11%. We stand at roughly 11.5% off of the correction lows right now. What’s more, there’s a fair amount of technical resistance in and around the S&P 500 range between 2625 and 2650. Credit key players in the…

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Let’s Not Kid Ourselves… The Market Will Remain Under Pressure

By | China ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

High profile market watchers have pointed out that there have only been four times in the last nine decades when back-to-back calendar year stock declines occurred. The years? 1929-1932, 1939-1941, 1973-1974, and 2000-2002. This could be encouraging news for stock enthusiasts were it not for the fact that 1929-1932 and 2000-2002 are included in the list. Valuation levels today have some of the same features that they did leading into the Great Depression and heading into the turn-of-the-century tech bubble….

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When Banks Get Beat, Who Wins?

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

The chair of the Federal Reserve is one of the most powerful human beings on the planet. For one thing, he/she exerts an inordinate amount of influence on the cost of capital.  Consumers, businesses and governments make critical decisions based on the attractiveness as well as the ability to borrow money. For another, financial markets hang on both the specific actions as well as the verbal guidance of the Fed chair. Currencies, commodities, bonds, stocks. The movement of each market-based…

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How Long Before Powell Throws In The Rest Of The Towel?

By | Bond ETFs, China ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Real Estate ETFs, Semiconductor ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

It was only a few days ago when the stock market celebrated a Trump-Xi tariff delay. And it was only a few days before that when Federal Reserve Chairman Powell flip-flopped on the extent of rate hiking yet to come. Both of the above-mentioned actualities sent stocks and risk assets soaring higher. And both were expected to serve as tailwinds for a phenomenal December rally. So how did the Dow lose nearly 1600 points in two days, then recover roughly…

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Should You Buy the S&P 500 Dip Or Sell the S&P 500 Rips?

By | Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Until recently, the U.S. stock market had been taking Federal Reserve rate hikes and quantitative tightening (QT) in stride. The investment community had come to believe that corporate tax reform would compensate for the gradual removal of ultra-easy interest rate stimulus. Indeed, up through October, rising interest rates had been hurting bonds far more stocks. Corporate credit assets of all sizes and shapes have logged total return losses year-to-date. The last time this happened? 2008. Lately, however, sellers have been overwhelming…

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So Goes Apple, So Goes The U.S. Market

By | Asia ETFs, Bond ETFs, China ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, Energy ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, Global ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Semiconductor ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Apple (AAPL) has been one of my largest individual holdings for the bulk of the post-recession stock bull. I believed in it when it was trading for one-tenth of its current value back in 2009. I even believed in it when it plummeted 40% in the winter of 2012-2013. Back then, though, Apple’s troubles did not adversely affect the broader equity rally. On the contrary. The S&P 500 exhibited all of the signs of a powerful uptrend. More recently, Apple…

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Why The Economic Slowdown Will Rattle Stock Investors

By | Bond ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Energy ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Materials ETFs, Real Estate ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

The economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), grew at 4.2% in the second quarter. It slowed to 3.5% in the third quarter. Meanwhile, Q4 projections have been coming in closer to 2.9%. An optimistic “take” would be to exclaim that the 2% pace that has been the hallmark of the current expansion is now in the rear-view mirror. For 2018 and beyond, we have kicked it into a higher gear (3%) due to tax cuts and regulation curtailment. A…

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