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ETF Philosophy

Have We Reached The Emotional Stage Of Euphoria For Stocks?

By | Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

In what world can aggregate debt of a country/business/household grow faster than its economy/income indefinitely? A world where math and logic no longer exist. Consider the circumstances for the United States. Economic growth as measured by the pace of gross domestic product (GDP) used to move in lockstep with the expansion of the country’s debt. However, in 1971, the growth rates began decoupling in earnest. That was the year President Nixon terminated gold’s relationship with the U.S. dollar. Not surprisingly, once…

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Markets Priced For Perfection Rarely Get What They ‘Price In’

By | Bond ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Global ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

It is almost inconceivable. Just 10 years ago, you could purchase a 3-year Treasury and sock away a risk free rate of return of nearly 6%. Right now? A paltry 1.5%. It follows that, today, one must take enormous chances to generate an income stream up and above the pace of inflation. And that’s only if you believe inflation gauges placing the annual rate in the neighborhood of 2%. For example, let’s assume an individual purchases a 5-year Treasury for…

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Does The Stock Investor Feel Lucky? “Well, Do Ya, Punk?”

By | Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | One Comment

The broadest definition of a bear market? Stocks descend 20% (rounding up) on a closing-price basis without an intervening bull market (20%) rally. Since 1929, there have been 25 bears with an average top-to-bottom return of -35%. Some analysts prefer to exclude the Great Depression. (Should they?) Since World War II, the average bearish demise has been -30%. A quick perusal of the percentage losses reveals a curious truth. The last two bears? The “tech wreck” and the “financial collapse?”…

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Should Stock And Bond Investors Continue Their ‘Hop of Hope?’

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Financial ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Stock investors have made a “hop of hope” since the election of Donald J. Trump. Specifically, the new administration’s dedication to the repatriation of foreign profits, the lowering of corporate tax rates and the reduction of onerous regulations may create impressive wage growth as well as momentous economic growth. Keep in mind, year-over-year wage growth and annual GDP growth during the nearly eight years of recovery fell way short of pre-Great Recession growth rates. Wages have grown at a sub-par…

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What Happens When A Weakening Economy Meets Fed Tightening, Asset Valuation Extremes And Political Unpredictability?

By | Bond ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

We are now entering the 3rd longest economic expansion since World War II. The growth of the last 12 months, however, came in at the slowest pace since the recessionary transition year of 2009. Specifically, gross domestic product (GDP) for calendar year 2016 was only 1.6%. And it is the third time since the financial collapse that annual economic growth sank below 2%. Keep in mind, when economic weakness threatened to derail financial markets in 2011 as well as 2013,…

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Why Some Investors Are Selling the ‘Fiscal Stimulus’ News

By | Bond ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

I came across an interesting data set for stock market performance for incoming Presidents of the United States. In their initial month, the results might be described as underwhelming. Upon the November election of Trump, investor hope reigned supreme on everything from corporate tax reduction to Dodd-Frank regulatory restructuring to monumental spending on infrastructure enhancement. Six weeks later? Many may be troubled by the haziness surrounding the specifics. Take the “unaffordable” Affordable Care Act (ACA). A large percentage of citizens and…

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Is The Trump Rally Over? Or Is It Merely Taking A Breather?

By | Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Inflation-adjusted credit card purchasing recently eclipsed inflation-adjusted wage growth by 2.8%. According to Danielle DiMartino Booth, that is the widest margin in the seven years and eight months of economic recovery. Some explain that the above-mentioned reliance on credit for consumption is a sign of confidence – an indication of a healthy desire to spend. Me? I believe middle-class Americans are struggling to get by. Consider the popular notion that America is near “full employment” and that wage growth is…

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Threat Assessment: Perils Are Pointing To The Possibility Of Heartbreaking Losses

By | Current Affairs and ETFs, Energy ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Popular Posts, Real Estate ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Stocks rocketed to all-time highs between October 1990 and March of 2000 to register the longest bull market ever (9 years, 5 months). No matter how ridiculous the price-per-stock share – no matter the mindlessness associated with owning U.S. tech stocks at 65 times trailing profits (rather than 15) – the popular view had been that the Internet’s “New Economy” had changed the rules of the game. Unfortunately, it hadn’t. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gave up 80% of its…

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Strong Jobs Report? Depends Upon Whom You Ask

By | Bond ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Bespoke Investment Group provides some of the best investment insight to individual and institutional investors alike. That said, their “tweet” this morning described Friday’s job report as a definitive sign of a tight labor market. The implication? Employment in America is firing on all cylinders. I beg to differ. Let’s begin with several key particulars. Media outlets reported that U-3 unemployment ticked higher from 4.6% to 4.7%. When the “headline” U-3 number goes down, most commentary focuses on a lower…

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Predictions: 3 Things That Will NOT Happen in 2017

By | Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Popular Posts, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Media personalities love to play the prediction game, particularly in January. Where will the S&P 500 wind up at year’s end? What will happen to interest rates? And after Mariah Carey’s infamous New Year’s Eve non-performance, which celebrity will have the next public meltdown? I enjoy the prognostication pastime as much as any individual. It helps to clarify what matters to me as an investor (as well as what doesn’t). In particular, no matter what happens to the world at…

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