Category

ETF Philosophy

Are The Ultra-Rich Predicting A Stock Market Swoon?

By | Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Mid Cap ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

I readily acknowledge that I know precious little about the world of art. In fact, I would struggle to distinguish Picasso from Velazquez, Van Gogh from Monet, or DaVinci from Rembrandt. On the other hand, my brain has retained a bit of knowledge about several artists for one reason or another. Not only did I see the 2002 movie on the life of Frida Kahlo, but I attended a Kahlo exhibit in New York. Similarly, whenever I gaze upon a…

Read More

Have You Been Blinded By The Stock Light?

By | Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Mid Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

I may not be a passionate fan when it comes to America’s pastime. Still, baseball is serving up a seventh game of a World Series. It rarely gets better than that. Who would have believed that the Los Angeles Dodgers would be one win away from celebrating their greatest wire-to-wire season since Kirk Gibson’s 1988 team? Who would have imagined that the Houston Astros would be poised to claim their first World Series title in franchise history? In a similar…

Read More

Don’t Put All Of Your Eggs In The ‘Tax Cuts Are Coming’ Basket

By | Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Short ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

It does not matter what you call it or how you explain it. The Trump trade. A tax reform rally. Heck, you can attribute the longest uptrend in history without a 3% pullback to global quantitative easing (QE). It makes very little difference. Stocks have been stupendous. Does a record number of trading days without a 3% correction mean anything? Not in isolation. The second-longest streak occurred between January 1995 and January 1996. And yet, back then, the phenomenal ’90s…

Read More

Three Reasons Why The ‘FANG’ Phenomenon Will End Badly

By | Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Internet ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Those who do not wish to draw any parallels between today’s stock market and the 1999-2000 tech stock bubble typically claim that “All of those turn-of-the-century dot-coms weren’t making any money. Today’s 2017 superstars — Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX) and Google/Alphabet (GOOG) — make money hand over fist!” The problem with this rationalization is threefold. First, the 1999-2000 tech balloon was not an online-only phenomenon. The ‘Four Horsemen’ that controlled more than half of the market capitalization for the…

Read More

Is Warren Buffett Leading Investors Or Misleading Investors?

By | Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

There are no shortage of Warren Buffett quotes on successful investing. The one that never fails to reassure me? “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” If one of the greatest investors on the planet strongly suggests that one become risk averse when the herd is throwing caution at the proverbial wind, it makes sense to identify the extent of ill-advised risk taking. For example, the CBOE S&P 500 VIX Volatility index (a.k.a “fear gauge”) closed out September…

Read More

If Familiarity Breeds Contempt, What Do Debt And Complacency Breed?

By | Bond ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Back in 1999, low inflation and fabulous headline unemployment (<5%) warranted a Federal Reserve overnight lending rate of 5.0%. Today, low inflation and desirable headline unemployment (<5%) come with $3.75 trillion in electronic money credits still on the central bank’s balance sheet and a Fed Funds Rate of a mere 1.25%. That is 375 basis points lower than it was with similar economic fundamentals less than two decades ago, not to mention a whole lot of “electronic money printing” since the…

Read More

What Will Eventually Wobble The Stock Market?

By | Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

I asked my Vice President at Pacific Park Financial, Inc. if he thought that anything might wobble the stock market. Rob said, “Extra-terrestrials could invade the planet. That MIGHT send the Dow down 0.4% for a few hours in the middle of the day.” “I disagree,” I counter-punched. “If outer space beings visit Earth, they will share secrets on how to travel faster than the speed of light in exchange for shares of Amazon.” “They’ll want bitcoin,” Rob said matter-of-factly….

Read More

The Years 2000 And 2017: There’s A Whole Lot Of Rhyming Going On

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

This week, CNBC’s Kelly Evans interviewed one of the most well-respected billionaire hedge fund managers in history, Julian Robertson. The co-founder of Tiger Management discussed global central bank collusion to depress interest rates and the subsequent creation of a bubble. “A bubble in the stock market?” the journalist clarified. Robertson replied, “Yes, ma’am.” Billionaires from the investing world do not sport perfect track records. Nevertheless, when the .0001% speak, investors should take notice. Within the past few months, the list of billionaire…

Read More

Everything Is Wonderful… Ex-Energy, Ex-Retail And Ex-Banks

By | Biotechnology ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Energy ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Health ETFs, Materials ETFs, Popular Posts, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs, Utilities ETFs | No Comments

As long as central banks around the globe are creating monetary credits at a breakneck clip of $200 billion per month, assets from stocks to real estate to higher yielding securities may have a floor underneath them. In particular, saber rattling in North Korea, government shutdown threats, natural disasters from Harvey to Irma, slower job growth and/or the demise of big name retailers may not cause long-lasting stock declines. And therein lies a problem: extreme complacency. The masses are beginning…

Read More

The Slowdown in Lending May Become Problematic For Stock Investors

By | Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

In the current business cycle, the Treasury bond yield curve has rarely been flatter. The spread between 30s and 2s is a paltry 1.4% and the spread between 10s and 2s is a meager 0.8%. Historically, the yield curve has been close to flawless as an expansion-contraction indicator. When a flattening curve dipped below ‘zero,’ the inversion foreshadowed seven out of the last 8 recessions. However, the Federal Reserve’s creation of trillions in electronic dollar credits (a.k.a. “quantitative easing” or…

Read More