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Large Cap ETFs

Markets Priced For Perfection Rarely Get What They ‘Price In’

By | Bond ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Global ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

It is almost inconceivable. Just 10 years ago, you could purchase a 3-year Treasury and sock away a risk free rate of return of nearly 6%. Right now? A paltry 1.5%. It follows that, today, one must take enormous chances to generate an income stream up and above the pace of inflation. And that’s only if you believe inflation gauges placing the annual rate in the neighborhood of 2%. For example, let’s assume an individual purchases a 5-year Treasury for…

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Does The Stock Investor Feel Lucky? “Well, Do Ya, Punk?”

By | Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | One Comment

The broadest definition of a bear market? Stocks descend 20% (rounding up) on a closing-price basis without an intervening bull market (20%) rally. Since 1929, there have been 25 bears with an average top-to-bottom return of -35%. Some analysts prefer to exclude the Great Depression. (Should they?) Since World War II, the average bearish demise has been -30%. A quick perusal of the percentage losses reveals a curious truth. The last two bears? The “tech wreck” and the “financial collapse?”…

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Should Stock And Bond Investors Continue Their ‘Hop of Hope?’

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Financial ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Stock investors have made a “hop of hope” since the election of Donald J. Trump. Specifically, the new administration’s dedication to the repatriation of foreign profits, the lowering of corporate tax rates and the reduction of onerous regulations may create impressive wage growth as well as momentous economic growth. Keep in mind, year-over-year wage growth and annual GDP growth during the nearly eight years of recovery fell way short of pre-Great Recession growth rates. Wages have grown at a sub-par…

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Why Some Investors Are Selling the ‘Fiscal Stimulus’ News

By | Bond ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

I came across an interesting data set for stock market performance for incoming Presidents of the United States. In their initial month, the results might be described as underwhelming. Upon the November election of Trump, investor hope reigned supreme on everything from corporate tax reduction to Dodd-Frank regulatory restructuring to monumental spending on infrastructure enhancement. Six weeks later? Many may be troubled by the haziness surrounding the specifics. Take the “unaffordable” Affordable Care Act (ACA). A large percentage of citizens and…

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Is The Trump Rally Over? Or Is It Merely Taking A Breather?

By | Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Inflation-adjusted credit card purchasing recently eclipsed inflation-adjusted wage growth by 2.8%. According to Danielle DiMartino Booth, that is the widest margin in the seven years and eight months of economic recovery. Some explain that the above-mentioned reliance on credit for consumption is a sign of confidence – an indication of a healthy desire to spend. Me? I believe middle-class Americans are struggling to get by. Consider the popular notion that America is near “full employment” and that wage growth is…

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Strong Jobs Report? Depends Upon Whom You Ask

By | Bond ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Bespoke Investment Group provides some of the best investment insight to individual and institutional investors alike. That said, their “tweet” this morning described Friday’s job report as a definitive sign of a tight labor market. The implication? Employment in America is firing on all cylinders. I beg to differ. Let’s begin with several key particulars. Media outlets reported that U-3 unemployment ticked higher from 4.6% to 4.7%. When the “headline” U-3 number goes down, most commentary focuses on a lower…

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Debt Levels, Income Inequality and Why They Matter To The Stock Market

By | Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

In recent commentary, I expressed an opinion that president-elect Trump faces numerous obstacles in stimulating the economy via tax cuts, regulatory reduction and infrastructure spending. The incoming administration is looking at an existing deficit of roughly $700 billion, tighter monetary conditions, higher borrowing costs in the near-term, highly leveraged households, highly leveraged corporations and $20 trillion in federal debt. In other words, Trump does not have the kind of favorable set-up that Reagan enjoyed in 1982. Nevertheless, I received a…

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Pro-Business Tax Cuts And Fiscal Stimulus Will Not ‘Trump’ Tighter Financial Conditions

By | Asia ETFs, Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Global ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Small Cap ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

What is GDP per capita? It is the value of all goods and services produced in an economy divided by the number of people living in it. Why is it important? It is one of the premier ways to identify both the comfort level of a country’s citizens at a given moment in time as well as the well-being of citizens over time. At the present moment, people living in the United States have it pretty good. Not quite as…

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Do Stock Sellers Understand Something That Recent Buyers Do Not?

By | Biotechnology ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Small Cap ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Is the stock market going up because there are more buyers than sellers? No. There are a fixed number of shares in the marketplace. For every buyer of a share, there needs to be a seller of the asset. In fact, a transaction cannot occur without each participant – each buyer and each seller – playing a role in a trade. So why is the U.S. stock market relentlessly powering ahead? Shareholding sellers are only willing to accommodate eager buyers…

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A Secular Bull Market For Stocks? Not Without An Intimidating Bearish Interlude

By | China ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Latin America ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

I could not be any prouder of my 20-year old daughter. In the recent semester, she received “straight 7s” while studying abroad at the University of Queensland in Australia. (Those are “As.”) More impressively, within a week of arriving back in the United States this past November, she secured two part-time lab assistant positions. That’s right. My kid works while pursuing her biology degree at the University of California in San Diego. Why am I writing about my daughter’s triumphs?…

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