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Why Dividend ETFs, REIT ETFs and Low Volatility ETFs Still Work

By | Bond ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Financial ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts | No Comments

Many investors are aware that the current economic expansion is the longest in U.S. history. 10 years and six months. Some believe that the growth does not need to end. Ever. They quip, “Economic expansions don’t die of old age.” Others wonder if the business cycle will end soon. After all, every decade on record has experienced at least one recession. The problem with focusing on when the next recession will occur? It assumes that asset prices decline dramatically because…

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Just A Manufacturing Recession? Stocks and Bonds Think There’s More To It

By | Asia ETFs, China ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Global ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs | No Comments

Six weeks ago, I made the case that the “ex-U.S.” stock bear began in January of 2018. It was a relatively easy case to make. After all, the MSCI World Ex USA Index fell more than 20% from its all-time high and has yet to recover. Even though the S&P 500 and the Dow did not fall 20% from their January 2018 peak, there has been minimal stock progress across 20 months. The Wilshire 5000 provides clear evidence that the…

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2020 Election: More Than Another Brick In The Wall Of Worry

By | Bond ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Energy ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, Global ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Real Estate ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Near the bottom of the 2008 financial collapse, many investors convinced themselves that Barack Obama’s left-leaning ideology would only make things worse for the stock market. They were wrong. Indeed, those folks missed a remarkable opportunity to acquire equities at phenomenal bargains. Leading into the 2016 election, plenty of people believed that Donald Trump’s unpredictable nature and tempestuous style would result in a stock market disaster. They were wrong too. Wall Street quickly warmed up to the prospect for dramatic…

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Large U.S. Stocks May Be Underestimating the Worldwide Manufacturing Recession

By | Asia ETFs, Bond ETFs, China ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, Global ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Mid Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Transportation ETFs, US Markets and ETFs, Utilities ETFs | No Comments

Global manufacturing data have been exceedingly grim. One would be hard-pressed to find a country in Europe, Asia or North America that is exporting products with little difficulty. If the United States wishes to export products at a higher clip, we’d require partners with the means to afford our products. Yet the U.S. dollar’s strength alongside foreign tariffs are impeding the process. One might think that the dollar’s strength would be helpful in importing products from other countries. At the moment, however, a wide…

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Here Comes The Fun (And The Fed Says, “It’s Alright”)

By | Consumer ETFs, Currency ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Global ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Real Estate ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

One might define absurdity as the quality or state of being ridiculous. Or one can glance at the global quantity of negative-yielding debt. The total? Nearly $14 trillion. Holding a bond to maturity that pays a negative return is insane. Wouldn’t risk-averse folks prefer a 0% return that would come with the embrace of physical cash? Unfortunately, central banks do crazy things. The euro deposit rate is at -0.4%. That means savers and investors could lose more money at a…

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How Will You Keep the Stock Wealth That You Created?

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Global ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Bond yields have been collapsing clear across the world. And if history is any guide, the rapid decline is a function of undeniable economic weakness. Consider the correlation between bond yields and time-tested measures like the Institute for Supply Management’s PMI. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield tends to follow in the indicator’s footsteps. As the chart shows, waning economic growth and falling bond yields occurred in 2012 and 2016. During those periods, corporate earnings struggled immensely. What about today? Not…

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What The Bond Market And Real Estate Market Are Telling Investors

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Trade wars. Tariffs. Trump. One might think that the “Ts” are solely responsible for financial market volatility. In truth, a wider variety of cross-currents are at work. Some have been bubbling up for a number of years. Consider the debt profiles of investment grade corporations. Cash on the books relative to debt has deteriorated markedly, while gross leverage (debt-to-earnings) is sitting near an all-time peak. The trend for interest coverage is equally concerning. In 2015, roughly 8.3% of corporate income went toward…

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All-Time Stock Highs: Why Modest Risk-Renting Will Outshine Extreme Risk-Taking

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Internet ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Leveraged ETFs, Mid Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

There has been a great deal of media hype surrounding new all-time highs in the U.S. stock market. For that matter, there has been a fair amount of puffery when it comes to how well stocks are performing overall. In actuality, we have seen similar levels for the S&P 500 twice before. The S&P 500 traded around the 2925 level in September of 2018 and the 2875 level back in January of 2018. The last 16 months, then, have not…

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Why Do Bond Investors Doubt The Stock Market Recovery?

By | Bond ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Financial ETFs, Global ETFs, Health ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs, Utilities ETFs | No Comments

Is a recession in the U.S. around the bend? Few economists are predicting one. On the other hand, longer-term Treasury bond yields continue to slide below shorter-term maturities. Bond investors are gobbling up long-term government debt because they believe that the economy will slow dramatically. Normally, the longer an investor allows the U.S. government to keep capital, the more that an investor would expect in annual interest from Uncle Sam. That is what transpires in a healthy economy. This past…

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Will The ‘Fed Put’ Work On The Next Go-Around?

By | Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Real Estate ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

The Federal Reserve’s “180-degree turn” has worked swimmingly for borrowers and risk-takers alike. The 10-year yield has dropped from 3.24% to 2.62%. That may encourage households and businesses to lever up with more debt. Meanwhile, stocks are surging upward, reaching for the record heights experienced during the September-October peak. The question investors need to ask themselves now is, “Will the ‘Fed Put’ work on the next go-around? It depends. And it likely depends on whether or not the U.S. is…

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