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Have You Been Blinded By The Stock Light?

By | Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Mid Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

I may not be a passionate fan when it comes to America’s pastime. Still, baseball is serving up a seventh game of a World Series. It rarely gets better than that. Who would have believed that the Los Angeles Dodgers would be one win away from celebrating their greatest wire-to-wire season since Kirk Gibson’s 1988 team? Who would have imagined that the Houston Astros would be poised to claim their first World Series title in franchise history? In a similar…

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Three Reasons Why The ‘FANG’ Phenomenon Will End Badly

By | Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Internet ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Those who do not wish to draw any parallels between today’s stock market and the 1999-2000 tech stock bubble typically claim that “All of those turn-of-the-century dot-coms weren’t making any money. Today’s 2017 superstars — Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX) and Google/Alphabet (GOOG) — make money hand over fist!” The problem with this rationalization is threefold. First, the 1999-2000 tech balloon was not an online-only phenomenon. The ‘Four Horsemen’ that controlled more than half of the market capitalization for the…

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What Will Eventually Wobble The Stock Market?

By | Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

I asked my Vice President at Pacific Park Financial, Inc. if he thought that anything might wobble the stock market. Rob said, “Extra-terrestrials could invade the planet. That MIGHT send the Dow down 0.4% for a few hours in the middle of the day.” “I disagree,” I counter-punched. “If outer space beings visit Earth, they will share secrets on how to travel faster than the speed of light in exchange for shares of Amazon.” “They’ll want bitcoin,” Rob said matter-of-factly….

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Everything Is Wonderful… Ex-Energy, Ex-Retail And Ex-Banks

By | Biotechnology ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Energy ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Health ETFs, Materials ETFs, Popular Posts, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs, Utilities ETFs | No Comments

As long as central banks around the globe are creating monetary credits at a breakneck clip of $200 billion per month, assets from stocks to real estate to higher yielding securities may have a floor underneath them. In particular, saber rattling in North Korea, government shutdown threats, natural disasters from Harvey to Irma, slower job growth and/or the demise of big name retailers may not cause long-lasting stock declines. And therein lies a problem: extreme complacency. The masses are beginning…

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Stocks Climb A ‘Wall Of Worry,’ Though Humpty-Dumpty Investors Can Fall Off The Wall

By | Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Energy ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, Transportation ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Macy’s, JC Penney, Sears. Does anyone seriously believe that these corporations will thrive in the years ahead? They’re far more likely to go belly up than to turn things around. Many investors seem unfazed by the probability that Amazon (AMZN) will terminate traditional retail. They see it as an opportunity to invest more in the stock shares of the wildly overvalued e-tailer. What they’re neglecting, however, are the people that brick-n-mortar companies employ. There are roughly 400,000 at these three “dead-in-the-water” businesses alone….

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Is ‘FAANG’ More Dangerous Than The ‘Four Horsemen’ Of The Late 1990’s And The ‘Nifty Fifty’ Of The Early 1970s?

By | Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

During the late 1990s tech boom, investors fell in love with the remarkable price appreciation of four mega-cap public corporations: Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC), Cisco (CSCO) and Dell (DELL). They became known as the ‘four horsemen’ for their unparalleled influence. In fact, at points in 1999 and 2000, the group accounted for as much as 55%-60% of the NASDAQ’s price movement. Perhaps ironically, some of these hold-forever stocks began losing a bit of their appeal as dot-com mania kicked into…

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Surging Corporate Profits? Not For The Rest Of This Economic Cycle

By | Bond ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Are corporate earnings genuinely wonderful? It may depend on your perspective. For example, after-tax corporate profits have grown at an annualized pace of less than 1% over the last 5 years. You won’t find many 5-year periods that have been as anemic as that. In the same vein, earnings per share (EPS) growth has been equally unimpressive. Yet stock prices have been climbing with or without corporate earnings support. One could make a case that corporate profits are just now…

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How Much Longer Should Stock Investors Dance Near The Fire Pit?

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs | No Comments

American consumers are financially strained. One indication? Card defaults rose from 2.81% back in November to 3.53% in May. Meanwhile, the expansion of credit by cards as well as by autos has slowed to the point of contraction. Some would have you believe that low headline unemployment (4.4%) is translating into increased consumption and increased demand for goods or services. Yet tepid GDP data demonstrate otherwise. One explanation is that nominal wage growth would need to grow in the 3.5%-4.0%…

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Are Stocks Adequately Compensating You For The Risk Of Financial Loss?

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Few predict that a recession is imminent. On the flip side, how should one reconcile the fact that the treasury yield curve is flatter than it has been since 2007? A diminishing spread between 30s and 2s has a history of alerting market watchers to economic difficulties. At the start of the current recovery in June of 2009, the spread between the longest-term maturities and shorter-term maturities clocked in at a relatively robust 3.5%. The yield curve was noticeably steep. Eight years later? The…

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Why You Will Lose Your Lovin’ Feeling For Central Banks

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, Global ETFs, Popular Posts, Real Estate ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Central banks across the globe have acquired $1.5 trillion in assets through the first five months of 2017. The monthly amount ($300 billion) has found its way into virtually every cranny and nook of the financial system. U.S. stocks, European stocks, emerging market equities, higher yielding junk bonds, convertibles, preferred shares, real estate investment trusts, real estate – you name it. Values have continued to climb in spite of inadequate economic growth. When a central bank buys assets with electronically printed…

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