Recently, I was speaking with one of the co-founders of the popular exchange-traded fund web site, ETF Database. He wanted to get my thoughts about the problems with “buy-n-hold.” I did not hesitate to give him an earful. Rather than chronicle my conversation in its entirety, or reiterate my commentary from dozens of previous articles on the topic, readers may wish to contemplate the risk of holding onto a permanent portfolio at this moment. Indeed, the risk of hold-n-hope at…
Nearly one-third of S&P 500 corporations have reported earnings and revenue from the third quarter. With 147 companies chiming in, profits are down -0.6% and sales are down -2.7% from a year earlier. One might have thought that several quarters of contraction in earnings and revenue (a.k.a. an “earnings recession” and a “revenue recession”) might have weakened stocks. After all, if robust sales and hearty profits are the primary drivers behind price appreciation for companies in the Dow and the…
Perma-bulls on the major networks routinely gloss over the reduction in stock market breadth. For example, 60% of the Dow 30 components currently sit below long-term moving averages. When companies like Coca-Cola, Wal-Mart, DuPont, Intel and Verizon are simultaneously suffering from rally fatigue, one might anticipate an eventual breakdown in the gravity-defying direction of popular benchmarks like the Dow and the S&P 500. It is not just companies in the Dow that are struggling. Most of the individual sector investments…
Bullish borrowers have increased their margin debt to invest in stocks from $445 billion in January to $507 billion today. And why not? The overall price movement for growth sectors of the stock market remains healthy. Flashy sub-segments like cyber-security and biotech continue to soar. For example, I allocated a small portion of moderately aggressive client assets to the Pure Funds ISE Cyber Security ETF (HACK) in early February. Its series of higher lows since its inception lent credibility to…
Lost in the bull market euphoria is the reality that economists have been dead wrong about the direction of asset prices, particularly bond prices. Last December, when 55 of the most prestigious economists across a wide range of institutions had been polled by Bloomberg about where the 10-year yield (3.0%) would end the year, each of the 55 professionals anticipated higher rates. The average of those estimates? 3.41%. And yet, the 10-year will finish the year closer to 2.25%. That…
Both the media and a wide array of financial advisers preach owning a diversified portfolio. Below, I have created a hypothetical asset mix that a moderate growth investor might employ: 30% iShares S&P 500 (IVV) 25% Vanguard Total Bond (BND) 12.5% iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA) 7.5% SPDR S&P Mid-Cap 400 (MDY) 5% SPDR High Yield (JNK) 5% Vanguard Short-Term Bond (BSV) 5% Vanguard Emerging Markets (VWO) 5% iShares Russell 2000 Small Cap (IWM) 2.5% Vanguard REIT (VNQ) 2.5% iShares TIPS…
Admit it. You are feeling a little bit edgy these days. While you understand that fear is the elixir of investment opportunity, you also recognize that there is little glory for the last person standing on a sinking aircraft carrier. Most in the media have been touting bull market accomplishments, job gains and economic progress. Writers regularly highlight the monster percentage gains that U.S. stocks have enjoyed since the lows hit in March of 2009 rather than discuss the reality…
My wife and I sold two condominiums near the tail end of 2005. We could not justify owning residences that were 40% more expensive to own than to rent. Simply put, it was time to cash in. Due largely to my comfort with the liquidity of market-based securities, I did not wade back into the real estate investment waters until 2012. I purchased a mixed-use property in a short sale. And today, I operate Pacific Park Financial, Inc. – a…
The S&P 500 has served up a 7%-plus return through the first six-and-a-half months of the year. That’s remarkably impressive when one considers the depth of geopolitical conflict, the implication of structural under-employment, the October end of quantitative easing (QE3) and the strong possibility of a significant change to the legislative branch this November. Naturally, some investment sectors of the economy have outperformed others. Here’s a peek at the 2014 year-to-date results: Sector ETF Performance (1/1-7/21) in 2014 …
Many of the word’s most respected economists projected the direction of interest rates at the start of the year. The average assessment? Experts collectively anticipated that the 10-year Treasury bond yield would rise from 3.03% to 3.41% by the end of 2014. I didn’t see it. For one thing, the well-being of real estate in a below-trend recovery largely depends on rate containment. Yet rising interest rates adversely impacted home sales in the 2nd half of 2013. Second, the Federal Reserve…
