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Short ETFs

Buy U.S. Stocks Today? Graham Thinks You’re Nuts

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Mid Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Short ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Would Warren Buffett’s mentor buy domestic stocks today? Probably not. The father of value investing, Benjamin Graham, would have trouble recommending a single U.S. company’s shares across thousands of possibilities. Need proof? In the fourteenth chapter of The Intelligent Investor, a classic that Mr. Buffett regarded as “…the best book on investing ever written,” Graham offered a seven-step test for stock selection. The criteria include: (1) adequate size with respect to revenue, (2) strong financial condition with respect to liquidity, (3) reasonable…

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Here Is What You Should Know About The Last Three Bear Markets

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Short ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Earnings per share (EPS) for the S&P 500 for Q2 came in at $87. Those results are no better than the EPS data from four years earlier. Worse yet, the $87 GAAP-based earnings are 18% lower than the $106 reached in Q3 of 2014. Now look at the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio chart below. For the better part of three years (circa 2013 -2016), the traditional metric held relatively stable between 18x-21x previous 12 months earnings. Since the start of 2015…

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Allocation Strategy During The Corporate Debt Hangover

By | Bond ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Latin America ETFs, Short ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Are corporations in great shape? Three consecutive quarters of declines in earnings suggest that they are not. Worse yet, record high leverage coupled with close-to-record low interest coverage indicate stress within corporate balance sheets. Beginning with the “profit recession,” it has become fashionable to describe the deterioration as a function of the price collapse in oil and gas. However, that assessment fails the sniff test on three different levels. One, six of the ten S&P 500 economic segments share in…

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Why Good News And Bad News Are Not Helping Stocks Anymore

By | Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Short ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Since the Great Recession’s inception, whenever the stock market dropped like a steel anvil or the U.S. economy showed signs of weakness, the Federal Reserve acted to inspire investor confidence. For example, in November of 2008, when the Fed announced its first quantitative easing (QE1) program to buy mortgage-backed securities (MBS), stocks rocketed 10% in two weeks. The enthusiasm wore off quickly. In March of 2009, the central bank of the United States “doubled down” on the MBS dollar amount…

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The Great Recalibration: The Appearance Of Risk Aversion In Credit Spreads And Equity ETFs

By | Bond ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Short ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Investors have seen a great deal of volatility in U.S. treasuries over the past six months. Early in the year, the combination of recessionary data stateside as well as quantitative easing (QE) measures in Europe helped propel demand for U.S. sovereign debt. Then came the massive unwind, alongside Fed hints at upcoming rate hikes; treasury yields spiked. More recently, the Greece default and the market meltdown in China gave treasuries their groove back. At present, the 10-year yield (2.25%) sits…

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50% Recession Possibility Calls For A ‘Higher-Than-Usual’ Allocation To Non-Stock ETFs

By | Actively Managed ETFs, Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Short ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Other than permanently bearish writers and investors, few address the possibility of the U.S. falling into a recession. Many conclude that the Federal Reserve’s ultra-low rate policy completely altered the landscape such that the idea of a business cycle no longer exists. Others merely ignore warning signs until, unfortunately for them, the opportunity to reduce investment risk has passed them by. Until recently, I have only discussed the possibility of a recession in the context of a Fed policy mistake….

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Technical Breakouts For Popular ETFs On The World Stage

By | Asia ETFs, China ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, Frontier Market ETFs, Global ETFs, International ETFs, Short ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

The current bull market for U.S. stocks is the fourth longest in history. Two others journeyed into a seventh year, while one other (1990s) enjoys the distinction as having traveled into an eighth year. Even if one subscribes to the idea that “bull markets never die of old age,” probability alone suggests that we are closer to the end than the beginning. Many market-watchers enjoy finishing the thought on what eventually kills a powerful bull run. “Excessive valuations,” some argue….

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Why “TBT” Doesn’t Have A Prayer

By | Actively Managed ETFs, Bond ETFs, ETF Philosophy, Leveraged ETFs, Short ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

When Jack Nicholson won his third Best Actor award in 1997’s “As Good As It Gets,” he may have chuckled at the knowledge that he’d never have it so good again. Who wins four Academy Awards for Best Actor in a motion picture? Nobody. (Yes, I checked… and Katherine Hepburn won four Oscars for Best Actress.) The problem with reaching a pinnacle, of course, is that your options are limited. You might be able to hang out on top of…

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3 ETF Investing Themes For A Wobbly U.S. Bull

By | Asia ETFs, Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, Global ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Short ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Presumably, the Great Recession ended in June of 2009. Three months earlier on March 9, the stock market anticipated the modest recovery that is still intact. In essence, stocks began to rally well in advance of the actual turnaround in the U.S. economy. Similarly, the 10/09/2002-10/09/2007 bull market ended roughly three months before the start of the mammoth economic collapse (12/2007). In a sense, stock barometers were (and are) leading indicators of things to come. For those who wish to…

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Europe’s QE Experiment: Adding Stock ETF Exposure And Hedging Against The Unforeseen

By | Bond ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Global ETFs, International ETFs, Short ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

The scope (current euro-zone member nations) and size ($1.1 trillion euros) of the European Central Bank’s latest stimulus effort has delighted the worldwide investing community. In fact, many began betting on a monumental quantitative easing “project” the minute that Europe registered year-over-year deflation of -0.2% for the month of December. This can be seen in dollar-denominated ETF performance since the start of the 2015. The Anticipation Game: Investors Bet On Most Recent “QE” Beneficiaries Approx YTD% iShares Hedged German Equity…

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