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Small Cap ETFs

Just A Manufacturing Recession? Stocks and Bonds Think There’s More To It

By | Asia ETFs, China ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Global ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs | No Comments

Six weeks ago, I made the case that the “ex-U.S.” stock bear began in January of 2018. It was a relatively easy case to make. After all, the MSCI World Ex USA Index fell more than 20% from its all-time high and has yet to recover. Even though the S&P 500 and the Dow did not fall 20% from their January 2018 peak, there has been minimal stock progress across 20 months. The Wilshire 5000 provides clear evidence that the…

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Large U.S. Stocks May Be Underestimating the Worldwide Manufacturing Recession

By | Asia ETFs, Bond ETFs, China ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, Global ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Mid Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Transportation ETFs, US Markets and ETFs, Utilities ETFs | No Comments

Global manufacturing data have been exceedingly grim. One would be hard-pressed to find a country in Europe, Asia or North America that is exporting products with little difficulty. If the United States wishes to export products at a higher clip, we’d require partners with the means to afford our products. Yet the U.S. dollar’s strength alongside foreign tariffs are impeding the process. One might think that the dollar’s strength would be helpful in importing products from other countries. At the moment, however, a wide…

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The Last Ones To Add More Stock Risk Will Have Rotten Nest Eggs

By | Asia ETFs, Bond ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, Financial ETFs, Global ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Mid Cap ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Transportation ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

U.S. large company stocks may be celebrating the anticipation of rate cuts. After all, the S&P 500 has been toying with record highs. Yet a broader view demonstrates that the asset class is struggling more than advertised. For example, diversified investors might be aware of world index funds that exclude the U.S. In particular, the iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. (ACWX) sits in correction territory, nearly 10% below its January 2018 peak. What about the Russell 2000 – an index that…

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Stock Market Rally: You May Be Right, I May Be Crazy

By | Asia ETFs, Bond ETFs, China ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, Frontier Market ETFs, Global ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Latin America ETFs, Mid Cap ETFs, Middle East ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

According to Jay Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. economy is performing well. It is difficult to take the assessment seriously. After all, as recently as mid-December, the Fed intended to raise interest rates three to four times in 2019. By January, central bank committee members wiped away the possibility of any rate hikes during the year. And now? The Fed is preparing the world for rate cuts as soon as July. “We will act as needed including promptly if that’s…

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Buy The Dip In Long-Term Treasury Bonds To Hedge Stocks?

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Mid Cap ETFs, Short ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

The 10-year Treasury yield pays 15 basis points LESS than the 3-month Treasury yield. That’s rather nutty when you think about it. Even nuttier? 30-year sovereign yields across the globe are LOWER than the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) of 2.38%. Why are bond market investors demanding the safety of lower-yielding, longer-term, sovereign debt? Why do many crave it more than higher-yielding, shorter-term instruments? Investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve will need to slash its overnight lending rate in attempts to stimulate…

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The Silencing of the Bears

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Dividend ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Global ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Since 2015, I have been less than enthusiastic about risk assets. And while I do not short the market, nor have I ever been completely divested from equities, investors have been rewarded for “going long.” Nevertheless, a review of the previous four years must note the 22 months of sideways stock movement that preceded the November 2016 election. The assessment must also account for the calendar year losses in 2018, especially for smaller-cap equities and foreign equities. The reason that…

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So Goes Apple, So Goes The U.S. Market

By | Asia ETFs, Bond ETFs, China ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, Energy ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, Global ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Semiconductor ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Apple (AAPL) has been one of my largest individual holdings for the bulk of the post-recession stock bull. I believed in it when it was trading for one-tenth of its current value back in 2009. I even believed in it when it plummeted 40% in the winter of 2012-2013. Back then, though, Apple’s troubles did not adversely affect the broader equity rally. On the contrary. The S&P 500 exhibited all of the signs of a powerful uptrend. More recently, Apple…

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Conspicuous Weakness In Market Internals A Bad Omen For Stocks?

By | Asia ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, Financial ETFs, Global ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Real Estate ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

One week ago, FactSet revealed that 250 of the stocks in the S&P 500 had dropped more than 20% from all-time peaks. The index itself, however, had only declined a modest 5% from its record top. Today, there are more indications of market distress. The Russell 2000, a popular small cap barometer, has dropped 13% from its high. The Dow Jones Transportation Average has fallen 13% as well. And the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) is sitting at a 52-week…

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Higher Rates Will Hurt Stocks More Thank You Think (Part 2)

By | Bond ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, Emerging Market ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Europe ETFs, International ETFs, Large Cap ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

In my previous week’s commentary, I explained why higher interest rates will hurt stock assets more than many might think. Naysayers pointed to the fact that rate levels are still quite low on a historical basis. Unfortunately, these folks are neglecting to place their comprehension of borrowing costs in context. Take a look at the last 20 years of U.S. monetary policy via the Federal Funds Rate (FFR). The Federal Reserve’s tightening phase from the 4% level up to the…

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Corporations Set Records For Buybacks As Their Insiders Sell

By | Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Mid Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, Telecom ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Tax-cut infused earnings have been solid. The rapid-fire rise of longer-term borrowing costs has slowed considerably. And corporate share buybacks have dwarfed earlier records. In Q2 alone, corporations purchased a staggering $436.6 billion in stock buybacks. That brings the year-to-date total to $670 billion. Similarly, announced S&P 500 buybacks are practically leaping off of the chart. More than most factors influencing market direction, buybacks have kept large-cap stocks from succumbing to legitimate concerns about Federal Reserve policy error, China trade…

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