McKinsey & Company, a multinational consulting firm, recently compiled data on global debt and economic growth. The company determined that worldwide debt has reached nearly $200 trillion dollars, up from roughly $140 trillion at the time of the 2008 crisis. Gross world product grew approximately $15 trillion to $70 trillion in the same time frame. In other words, IOUs grew roughly 41% over the last seven years in a period when the global economy expanded at a more modest 27%….
Lost in the bull market euphoria is the reality that economists have been dead wrong about the direction of asset prices, particularly bond prices. Last December, when 55 of the most prestigious economists across a wide range of institutions had been polled by Bloomberg about where the 10-year yield (3.0%) would end the year, each of the 55 professionals anticipated higher rates. The average of those estimates? 3.41%. And yet, the 10-year will finish the year closer to 2.25%. That…
Talk about doom and gloom. Oil bears are predicting $40 per barrel, even $30 per barrel. Meanwhile, a whole lot of folks are treating the chatter like it is a foregone conclusion. What would need to happen for oil to go from $110 per barrel at the height of Russia-Ukraine tensions down to $30 per barrel and stay there? Oil-producing exporters would need to vow never to cut production… ever. Countries exceptionally dependent on oil revenue (a la Russia) would…
I have not been able to sell my house. I have lowered the original asking price ($1,139,000) by more than 5%. I have jacked up the commission for buyer agents. None of it matters – million dollar homes throughout Orange County, California are not receiving a whole lot of offers. Granted, real estate is local. What’s more, I may be fortunate enough to rent out the residence. (My family already has a new home to move into in November.) Yet…
In spite of a stock market sell-off that nearly set the S&P 500 back 10%, some stock ETFs have already recovered. That’s right. A handful of funds barely trembled during last week’s frightful liquidation. Shortly thereafter, this intrepid group ascended to record heights. Here are the more notable stock ETFs on the latest 52-Week High list. Do the 1-month and 3-month performance intervals hint at a pattern? New Highs: Least Volatile ETFs Are Shining The Brightest 1 Month % 3…
In the first half of the U.S. stock market bull (i.e., 2009-2011), 10%-19% corrections occurred annually. That has not been the case in the second half of the bull market. Instead, the frequency as well as the duration of setbacks lessened. There were several 7% sell-offs in 2012, a couple of 5% pullbacks in 2013 and a number of shake-ups here in 2014. At the present moment, the NYSE High-Low Index suggests that our collective assets may be banging on…
The Wall Street media may celebrate the 35% intra-day jump in Alibaba shares. They may tout the record highs in the Dow and the S&P 500. However, they are missing the boat on both the economy as well as key stock market divergences. Let us start with the economic environment. The all-important Conference Board’s Leading Indicators Index (LEI) rose a meager 0.2%. That is indicative of an economy that has little chance of repeating its 4% 2nd quarter expansion. Even…
The S&P 500 has served up a 7%-plus return through the first six-and-a-half months of the year. That’s remarkably impressive when one considers the depth of geopolitical conflict, the implication of structural under-employment, the October end of quantitative easing (QE3) and the strong possibility of a significant change to the legislative branch this November. Naturally, some investment sectors of the economy have outperformed others. Here’s a peek at the 2014 year-to-date results: Sector ETF Performance (1/1-7/21) in 2014 …
Many of the word’s most respected economists projected the direction of interest rates at the start of the year. The average assessment? Experts collectively anticipated that the 10-year Treasury bond yield would rise from 3.03% to 3.41% by the end of 2014. I didn’t see it. For one thing, the well-being of real estate in a below-trend recovery largely depends on rate containment. Yet rising interest rates adversely impacted home sales in the 2nd half of 2013. Second, the Federal Reserve…
Most folks experience anxiety about carrying any kind of debt load. Many of us do not even distinguish between the different types of debt that we owe. Of course, some debts may be “better” than others. A subsidized Stafford loan from the Federal government allows a student to defer his/her principal and interest during college, pay back a low fixed rate of roughly 3.86% after school, as well as achieve a degree that increases one’s salary potential. Similarly, a first…
