Recession In 2017 For Clinton, Trump Or Johnson?

20 October 2016 at 1:37 pm by Gary Gordon

Recessions occurring in a new president’s first year in office? Over the last 100 years, they have taken place three times as often as in other periods. In fact, the initial year of a president’s tenure has dovetailed with eight of the previous eleven economic contractions. George W. Bush had to deal with the fallout [...] Continue Reading...

Ignore The Election Cycle… Be Conscious Of The Stock Market Cycle

17 October 2016 at 8:26 am by Gary Gordon

Here are a number of incontrovertible facts: 1. A bull market in stocks ends every bear market 2. A bear market in stocks ends every bull market 3. The Federal Reserve cannot prevent a bear market in stocks from eventually occurring A new stock market bull in October of 2002 terminated the tech wreck (3/10/00-10/09/02) that [...] Continue Reading...

October 16, 2016 – ETF Expert Radio Podcast

16 October 2016 at 3:00 am by Staff

ETFs & the Labor Market, US Dollar ETFs, Large Cap Stock ETFs, ETFs & Corporate Profits Click here to listen to the show Continue Reading...

Wondering What Stocks Are Going To Do? Watch The Greenback

12 October 2016 at 11:45 am by Gary Gordon

Last week, I wrote about the deteriorating employment picture. This week, investors received additional evidence that the “job growth is solid” crowd is inattentive. Consider the Federal Reserve’s own Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) – a dynamic factor model that incorporates data from 19 labor market indicators (e.g., wages, unemployment rates, layoffs, business surveys, etc.). The [...] Continue Reading...

October 9, 2016 – ETF Expert Radio Podcast

09 October 2016 at 8:00 am by Staff

The Fed & ETFs, ETFs & Employment Numbers, U.S. Stock ETFs, ETFs & GDP Growth, Dividend ETFs, Investment Grade Bond ETFs Click here to listen to the show Continue Reading...

What Job Growth? Weak Employment Trends Kept The Fed Sidelined For Eight Years

07 October 2016 at 2:12 pm by Gary Gordon

Loretta Mester, President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, described the weaker-than-anticipated September employment report as “solid.” She went on to say that “the unemployment rate is about what my estimate of full employment is.” Meanwhile, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer explained that the 156,000 jobs created was pretty close to a “Goldilocks” number. The 156,000 [...] Continue Reading...

Why Ultra-Low Rates Cannot Help U.S. Stocks The Way That They Used To Help Them

05 October 2016 at 3:30 pm by Gary Gordon

There’s no doubt that stocks have recovered handsomely from their January lows. And there has been precious little stress on the road to stock asset recovery since the start of 2016. Nevertheless, the fact that equities have toiled for the better part of two years… that’s not something that the media talk about in the [...] Continue Reading...

October 2, 2016 – ETF Expert Radio Podcast

02 October 2016 at 8:00 am by Staff

U.S. GDP & ETFs, ETFs & Interest Rates, Fed Policy & ETFs, ETFs & European Banks, Muni Bond ETFs, Dividend ETFs, ETFs & Cash Equivalents, Financial ETFs Click here to listen to the show Continue Reading...

The Fed Will Buy Stocks During QE4. What’s Your Plan In The Meantime?

30 September 2016 at 11:39 am by Gary Gordon

The U.S. economy is barely expanding. Not only has growth slipped to 1.3% over the last 12 months, it has failed to reach the sub-par bar of 2% in three consecutive quarters. The big hope? 3rd quarter GDP could show modest improvement in hitting 2% – the deeply disappointing “New Normal.” (Note: There was a [...] Continue Reading...

Probability: Should It Play A Part In Your Asset Allocation?

27 September 2016 at 11:32 am by Gary Gordon

We live in the moment. We have short attention spans (and shorter memories). For the most part, we want to know how stocks will perform over the next few weeks or months. 2026? 2027? Few “long-term” investors have the fortitude to regard today’s equity market decisions the way that a red wine vintner treats a [...] Continue Reading...

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