ETF Expert

Imagine if your favorite football team put 14 points on the board in the 4th quarter of every game. You’d feel pretty good about your team’s chances, wouldn’t you?

Technology has scored big in the 4th quarter (Oct 1-Dec 31) in each of the last 5 years (2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006). The Powershares Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ), often viewed as a tech proxy with a 2/3 weighting in tech stocks, put up 17.6%, 12.5%, 14.6%, 2.6% and 6.4% respectively. Consider… these are gains occurring in a 3-month period!

We haven’t yet reached the final quarter of 2007. Nevertheless, there are many compelling arguments to expect a sixth season of tech profits.

The P/E price tag for tech is typically much higher than the current "multiple" of 20. Most of the CEOs at major technology firms, particularly John Chambers at Cisco, have been noticeably upbeat about corporate forecasts. And technically, you couldn’t ask for a better bounce off the long-term 200-day moving average.

Will it be smooth sailing? That’d be anyone’s guess. Yet if you had to go with one segment of the economy for the October-December time frame, you’d probably come here. (And by extension… it might be Vanguard’s Information Technology Index Fund (VGT).

If you are interested in a previous review of the Internet sub-sector, I explain your exchange-traded fund choices here. You may also want to read about country funds that have heavy tech exposure.

Disclosure Statement:  As a Registered Investment Advisor, Pacific Park Financial, Inc. may hold positions in the ETFs, mutual funds and/or index funds mentioned above. Investors who are interested in money management services may visit the Pacific Park Financial, Inc. web site.