Stocks haven’t quite “gone away” in May. In fact, the S&P 500 at 1346¬†remains within spitting distance of its multi-year peak of 1370.
In spite of¬†remarkable stock resilience,¬†the 10-year treasury bond yield has dropped to a jaw-droppingly low 3.14%. That has helped Bond ETFs hit 52-week highs for the fourth consecutive week. (Remember, it wasn’t that long ago that perceived economic strength had been pushing 10-year yields toward 4.0%.)
One might¬†be tempted¬†to attribute bond¬†gains and the corresponding ultra-low yields to the Fed’s QE2 program. However, Bond ETFs aren’t hitting¬†52-week highs¬†on Bernanke’s¬†back alone.¬†Many may recall that¬†PIMCO is abandoning U.S. debt in the largest bond mutual fund, PIMCO Total Return.¬†Moreover, the debt rating agency Moody’s fired an “outlook¬†downgrade”¬†across the bond bow. And April fund flow data¬†pointed to bond fund outflow.
It follows that¬†the most likely reason for Bond ETF gains¬†is that the¬†institutional money smells fear. Here is a list of popular Stock ETFs and Bond ETFs that hit fresh 52-week highs on Monday, May 9:
|Popular ETFs Hitting Brand New 52-Week Highs (5/9/11)||¬†|
|¬†||¬†||¬†||¬†||¬†||¬†||Approx 1 Month % Return|
|Select Sector SPDR Health Care (XLV)||¬†||¬†||7.0%|
|iShares DJ Health Providers (IHF)||¬†||¬†||6.9%|
|Rydex S&P Equal Weight Health Care (RYH)||¬†||¬†||6.6%|
|PowerShares Small Cap Utilities (PSCU)||¬†||¬†||5.4%|
|iShares DJ Aerospace Defense (ITA)||¬†||¬†||1.0%|
|iShares Corporate Credit Bond (CFT)||¬†||¬†||2.5%|
|SPDR Barclays Intermediate Corp Credit (ITR)||¬†||2.4%|
|iShares Barclays Intermediate Corp Credit (CIU)||¬†||2.2%|
|PowerShares Preferred (PGX)||¬†||¬†||¬†||1.3%|
|iShares High Yield Bond (HYG)||¬†||¬†||¬†||1.0%|
Utilities and health care stocks collectively comprise the ingredients for the¬†stock soup du jour. More specifically, the money that has been pouring into defensive stock¬†ETFs is¬†supporting an overall market that¬†appears vulnerable.
For instance, would¬†Dr.¬†Copper, the metal with a¬†Ph.D. in¬†Economics,¬†really fall below its 200-day long-term average in a self-sustaining recovery? Would home price declines really be accelerating?¬†Would the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index be at its lowest level in 9 months?
In summation, we’re seeing¬†52-week highs from high income producers (e.g, PGX, HYG,),¬†low-yielding corporate credit bond ETFs (e.g., CFT, CIU) and¬†defensive stocks (e.g., IHF, PSCU). The¬†trend¬†is not a big time endorsement of risk; rather, the trend seems more indicative of a holding pattern.
A noteworthy exception? Aerospace and Defense (ITA) has found a groove. James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, attributes¬†the success of industrials like Boeing and United Technologies¬†to a “manufacturing renaissance.” Indeed, it’s hard to deny that the weak dollar has benefited U.S. manufacturers… maybe even at the expense of non-manufacturers and consumer purchasing power.
Disclosure Statement: ETF Expert¬†is a web log (‚ÄĚblog‚ÄĚ) that makes the world of ETFs easier to understand. Gary Gordon, MS, CFP is the president of Pacific Park Financial, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC. Gary Gordon, Pacific Park Financial, Inc, and/or its clients may hold positions in the ETFs, mutual funds, and/or any investment asset mentioned above. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities. At times, issuers of exchange-traded products compensate Pacific Park Financial, Inc. or its subsidiaries for advertising at the ETF Expert web site. ETF Expert content is created independently of any advertising relationships. You may review additional ETF Expert disclosure details here.