ETF Expert

At the start of the week, analysts were wondering whether or not stocks could “hold the line.” Specifically, the bulls were simply hoping that the current price on the S&P 500 would stay above its 200-day moving average.

However, the S&P 500 had little trouble holding the 1263 level. In fact, by Thursday, June 30, the U.S. stock gauge rocketed skyward to 1320. That’s a staggering 4.1% in 4 days!

Should investors pop the champagne corks? Only if they celebrate success in 3-month calendar intervals. After all, the 4-trading-session rally had more to do with the absence of horrific news than the emergence of exciting news.

Specifically, Greece approved austerity measures that should ensure that the troubled nation doesn’t default this year. Jobless claims may not be decelerating, but they’ve stopped accelerating. And money managers made quarter-ending portfolio purchases for displaying popular positions in client reports (a.k.a. window dressing).

Is this this the stuff that propels a sustainable summertime surge? Probably not. In fact, as much as it pains me to use ”risk-on-risk-off” to describe the trading environment, the tiresome terminology is entirely accurate.

Consider the 4-day rally and 3-month momentum data for each of the 10 economc sectors:

The success of “steady Eddie” non-cyclicals across a 3-month time period reflects the general apprehension that investors have about the world at large. That success is likely to hold up in the summertime. After all, the U.S. debt ceiling game of chicken won’t end before a last minute deal is cut in late July or early August. High unemployment concerns will linger. Developing nations still have several more months of inflation-fighting ahead of them. And even with Greece on the back burner, other eurozone debtors are likely to face scrutiny in the coming months.

On the flip side, the success of economically sensitive cyclicals across the 4-day rally reflects the removal of a major macro-econ fear (i.e., sovereign debt default). With Greece not a threat to default in the immediate term, investors refocused on the micro-econ reality of corporate health; that is, valuations on share prices are exceptionally attractive. Forward P/Es of 13 for the Dow and the S&P 500? 11 for MSCI China? Earnings yields on stocks relative to comparable bond yields?

Expect earnings reports for cyclical stocks to keep on trucking. Yet, the uncertainty cyclical companies present about the future will keep these higher risk segments from breaking out in a big way. Moreover, expect earnings reports for non-cyclicals to be modest. Yet the reliability of future guidance may keep them at the top of the pack… at least until the debt ceiling is raised and the “soft patch” becomes less soft.

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