How many articles are going to emphasize how bad the month of August treated investors? The fact that U.S. stocks in the S&P 500 shed -5.7% speaks for itself. On the other hand, the reality that August had been down as much -13.3% eight trading days earlier is far more telling. Ironically, you still read how the U.S. credit downgrade [...] Continue Reading...
The S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY) has rocketed 8.0% in 7 trading sessions. Equally impressive, only one of those days logged a loss. On the flip side, ”fear trade faves” are hanging tough. SPDR Gold (GLD) is essentially flat over the same 7 days. Similarly, treasury bonds via iShares 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) are down a mere [...] Continue Reading...
Asia’s fight against inflation via tight monetary policy has curbed demand for natural resources. Meanwhile, the reduced demand for resources in both Asia and the developed world (Europe/U.S.) has resulted in less exporting from resource-rich countries like Russia and Brazil. In other words, those who have been “long” the emerging market growth story haven’t had much [...] Continue Reading...
Hurry! Hurry! Place your bets on the chances of another recession — 25%, 33%, 50%, 66%, 100%! How gloomy are some folks? Perma-bear David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff & Associates believes that a recession is a near certainty (99%), citing the weakness of the consumer and the double-dip in housing. Meanwhile, John Hussman, long-short billion dollar fund manager, expresses 100% certainty in [...] Continue Reading...
Oversold ETFs, Warren Buffett and Financial ETFs, Korean ETFs, Energy ETFs, Risk-Off ETFs, Toxic ETFs, Libor Rates and ETFs Click here to listen to the show: 08-28-2011 Continue Reading...
Most analysts believed that Bernanke would announce some form of additional Fed stimulus. That was the prevailing wisdom. Moreover, analysts also believed that the markets would falter without a Fed boost, or conversely, that markets would rise with a Fed injection. By Friday, when the Fed did nothing, the markets appeared panicky at first, but then they rose [...] Continue Reading...
Risk assets haven’t been the same since the end of April. Yet they didn’t begin to look feeble until one month ago, around the moment that the U.S. government was floundering over the debt ceiling. First, stocks and commodities debated whether or not Congress could agree on any type of legislation. Next, they struggled with sovereign debt contagion in [...] Continue Reading...
In this trading range environment, where the S&P 500 moves between 1100-1250, the volatility of domestic markets may be overshadowing activity in foreign markets. Then again, investors of international equities haven’t exactly been “winning” in 2011. Nevertheless, many believe that China will still be able to cool inflation and engineer a soft economic landing. When it does — when the People’s Bank takes [...] Continue Reading...
Nearly every investor would like to believe that Tuesday’s 300-point Dow performance was meaningful. In fact, with the SPDR S&P Gold Trust (GLD) shedding more than 3% in the single session — with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) falling close to 15% on the day – the Dow’s surge may have been legitimate. Still, you might not want [...] Continue Reading...
If Abby Joseph Cohen is/was the quintessential perma-bull for U.S. equities, Franklin Templeton’s Mark Mobius is her perma-twin for emerging markets. In fact, it may not be possible to find a moment in time when Mobius wasn’t bullish on emerging countries. Today, Mobius isn’t even falling back on valuation-based arguments; he’s not talking about GDP growth or fiscal policy. He simply points to [...] Continue Reading...
