U.S. dollar strength has kept a¬†number of commodities range-bound, including gold, silver, copper and agricultural grains. Yet¬†industrial¬†metals¬†tied to economic expansion appear to be gaining strength on signs that China may loosen monetary and fiscal policy,¬†while oil/gasoline continue to surge on Middle East uncertainty.
In aggregate, commodity investing has been mildly beneficial in 2012.¬†The iPath DJ UBS Total Commodity¬†ETN (DJP)¬†is up 3% year-to-date, but that pales in comparison¬†to the¬†10%-plus¬†on¬†shares of corporate¬†stock.
One might be quick to assume that Jim Rogers has it all wrong. He has passionately argued against the U.S. dollar’s viability in a world where the Federal Reserve electronically creates currency out of thin air. Yet, the US. dollar has been hanging tough in the face of 0% rates and¬†quantitative easing. Moreover,¬†his¬†preference for¬†commodities over corporate shares¬†didn’t work out so well in 2011, nor¬†has it appeared beneficial here in 2012.
Of course, sometimes it pays to look a little bit closer. For example, over the last 3 months (12/14-3/13),¬†Gold (GLD) has¬†garnered about 6.5%.¬†The Gold Miners ETF (GDX)? Close to¬†0%. You can see the weakening of the miners relative to the metal in the price ratio (GDX:GLD).
Is it merely a precious metal problem? Hardly. PowerShares DB¬†Oil (DBO) has lifted¬†investor spirits by 20% over¬†a 6-month period.¬†SPDR Oil Exploration & Production (XOP) logged about 14% in the same time frame.¬†Once again, the price ratio¬†(XOP:DBO) demonstrates the¬†imperfect direction¬†of oil explorers relative to the underlying commodity.¬†¬†
These examples¬†do not conclusively support the notion that it is better to own the commodity than the corporations that mine/explore.¬†And while Mr. Rogers has been quoted¬†as preferring actual “stuff”¬†over owning¬†the shares of hard asset producers, he might be the first to say that different time frames may favor one asset type over the other.
That said, are we in a near-term period where underlying commodities may beat out resource-related exploration firms? Or is just a matter of time before commodity price inflation sends the shares of Gold Miners (GDX) and Oil Exploration/Production (XOP) skyrocketing?
Disclosure Statement: ETF Expert¬†is a web log (‚ÄĚblog‚ÄĚ) that makes the world of ETFs easier to understand. Gary Gordon, MS, CFP is the president of Pacific Park Financial, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC. Gary Gordon, Pacific Park Financial, Inc, and/or its clients may hold positions in the ETFs, mutual funds, and/or any investment asset mentioned above. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities. At times, issuers of exchange-traded products compensate Pacific Park Financial, Inc. or its subsidiaries for advertising at the ETF Expert web site. ETF Expert content is created independently of any advertising relationships. You may review additional ETF Expert disclosure details here.