The broader S&P 500 may not have fallen far enough to have met the technical definition of a stock market correction. Yet we shouldn’t dismiss an intra-day, high-to-low pullback of 7% as unremarkable. (For that matter, there may be more selling pressure ahead.) On the flip side, what if the worst of the selling has passed [...] Continue Reading...
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed more than 10% above its long-term 200-day moving average. That hasn’t happened since August of 2010, back when investors fretted the possibility of a double-dip recession. Today, the worries are more cumulative in nature. Uncertain job growth, depressed home values, debt troubles in Europe, rising commodity prices, the threat of rising rates, inflation in Asia, [...] Continue Reading...
There are many times when commentators bash Japanese equities. After all, the Nikkei benchmark has been a losing proposition for buy-n-holders over the past 20 years. Yet there are few times when you’ll hear anybody question the resolve of Japanese people. Japan was the world’s first modern superpower in the Far East. Even after losing its control [...] Continue Reading...
For the past eleven trading days, the S&P 500 sported an average daily trading range of 1.3%. That’s a far cry from the 7% intra-day swings of late ‘08. On the other hand, it’s significantly more volatile than what we had been experiencing before the rebellion in Libya. Indeed, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has traded above its 50-day trendline since February 22. What’s [...] Continue Reading...
Jim Stack, editor of InvesTech Research, is giving bull market enthusiasts reason to remain optimistic. According to Jim, 80% of bull markets over the last 8 decades lasted more than 2 years and 50% lasted more than 3 years. (Note: The current bull market will turn “2″ on March 9, 2011.) While bullishness has regained its charm, the [...] Continue Reading...
What’s the sound of an inflation-minded financial writer typing? Does anyone hear the “tap-tap-tap” on your keyboard? There’s no definitive answer to the lead question with Zen Koan-like appeal, let alone the follow-up. However, I do know that if you write about something long enough, others will follow. Here are a few examples of inflation-tracking features: 1. December 22, 2010. In this column, [...] Continue Reading...
The first round of earnings reports gave investors plenty of reasons to smile – from Tiffany’s outlook to Alcoa’s expectation-beater to KB Home’s profit. And yet, in spite of the S&P 500 visiting the 1276-1278 level on virtually every day of the New Year, resistance has kept stocks in check. Perhaps it’s not enough that Japan has joined China in offering to buy European debt. [...] Continue Reading...
For the better part of 2010, most economists had suggested that global GDP would decelerate into 2011. Over the last 3 months, however, worldwide forecasts have been revised; many now believe that developed economies like the U.S. and Germany are accelerating, while scores of emerging countries will continue to grow in the 6%-8% range. With more economic expansion, particularly in the [...] Continue Reading...
“The rich get richer,” you hear from those who demonize the creation of wealth. Nevermind the fact that the freedom to keep the fruits of your labor… the rewards of your work product… is one of the biggest reasons that so many people around the world have wanted to live in the United States. In decades of conversations with investors — from the [...] Continue Reading...
Silver, gold, copper, nickel, timber, oil, coal, corn, wheat– these are just a handful of the natural resources needed in the real world. Investors in resource-related corporations are seeing price appreciation in nearly every arena with the exception of natural gas. (And hey, who knows… winter may just change fortunes for the other fossil fuel.) In contrast, [...] Continue Reading...
