Archive | Bond ETFs

Do Not Blame China For Your Missed Opportunity To Reduce Risk

Some are crediting me with calling the 6-day mini-crash. On the contrary. When I wrote “15 Warning Signs Of A Market Top” on August 18, the intent was to discuss micro-economic (corporate), macro-economic, fundamental and technical reasons for reducing one’s overall allocation to riskier assets. I did not predict the epic fall from grace for [...] Continue Reading...


A Market Top? 15 Warning Signs

Stocks are tumbling in Russia, Brazil, Chile, South Africa, Australia and Canada due to economic weakness in China. Meanwhile, the Vanguard Europe ETF (VGK) remains roughly 5.5% off of its May high, as the feel-good effect of $1.3 trillion in European Central Bank stimulus subsides. In truth, risk assets from across the spectrum are fading. Exchange-traded [...] Continue Reading...


Canaries In The Investment Mine Have Stopped Serenading

Eleven months ago, I talked about four classic canaries in the investment mines: (1) commodities, (2) high yield bonds, (3) small-cap stocks, (4) emerging market stocks. I explained that when all four of those canaries stop singing, riskier ETFs usually break down. Indeed, in September of 2014, commodities were tanking, high-yield bonds were plunging, small-cap [...] Continue Reading...


There’s Still Time To Lower Your Exposure To Riskier ETFs

A fair number of commenters, callers and perma-bulls were relatively tough on me in May when I suggested a strategic decision to raise cash levels. They were even tougher on me when I mentioned the possibility of picking up safer havens like intermediate treasuries via iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond (IEF) and intermediate-to-long duration municipal [...] Continue Reading...


3 Reasons Why Risk Is Exiting The Debate Stage

More than a handful of people asked me if I would be watching the big debate. 10 candidates. One stage. Which politician will emerge as the clear-cut favorite to win the Republican party nomination? It may surprise some folks, but I have zero interest in the made-for-television event. Each individual will receive about as much air [...] Continue Reading...


Economic Lethargy Continues To Bankroll The U.S. Stock Bull

Over the past century, the U.S. stock market typically turned down prior to the onset of a recession. You did not need to predict economic contraction; rather, you monitored the Dow and the S&P 500 because the benchmarks acted like leading indicators of bad times ahead. (Investors checked the market internals to get a sense [...] Continue Reading...


What’s So Bad About Kicking The Container Down The Road?

Every central banker and monetary authority understands economics. Each recognizes that debt-centric spending, interest rate repression and eye-popping additions to total government obligations will not sidestep inevitable defaults and/or worthless currencies in the future. So why has every influential central bank on the world stage – Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, People’s Bank of China, [...] Continue Reading...


The Great Recalibration: The Appearance Of Risk Aversion In Credit Spreads And Equity ETFs

Investors have seen a great deal of volatility in U.S. treasuries over the past six months. Early in the year, the combination of recessionary data stateside as well as quantitative easing (QE) measures in Europe helped propel demand for U.S. sovereign debt. Then came the massive unwind, alongside Fed hints at upcoming rate hikes; treasury [...] Continue Reading...


Greece, Puerto Rico, Or China? Debt-Fueled Excesses At The Heart Of Them All

Lately, I have been fielding a host of “which is worse” questions. Is it the possibility of Greece exiting the euro-zone or is it the potential for Puerto Rico to default on its debt? Is it the 25%-plus bearish retrenchment of China’s Shanghai SSE Composite or is it the likelihood of eventual rate hikes by [...] Continue Reading...


When Market Breadth Stinks, Cash Is The Mouthwash

Perma-bulls on the major networks routinely gloss over the reduction in stock market breadth. For example, 60% of the Dow 30 components currently sit below long-term moving averages. When companies like Coca-Cola, Wal-Mart, DuPont, Intel and Verizon are simultaneously suffering from rally fatigue, one might anticipate an eventual breakdown in the gravity-defying direction of popular [...] Continue Reading...


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