Archive | Bond ETFs

Three Implications Of “Shifts” In Fed Policy

A large number of stocks in the Dow Jones Industrials Average have moved lower since the¬†Federal Reserve ended its quantitative easing (QE) program in late October. Telecom giants AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) have toiled. Consumer champs Procter & Gamble (PG) and Coca-Cola (KO) have struggled. Commodity-related kings like Chevron (CVX) and Caterpillar (CAT)? They’ve [...] Continue Reading...


ETF Risk Management In The Face Of A Surging U.S. Dollar

Historically, when the U.S. dollar surges, forward S&P 500 earnings plummet. In the same vein, the last two times that the world’s reserve currency skyrocketed, the¬†U.S. economy slipped into a recession. Come on, Gary. Do you really think that we have already dipped into recession territory? No, I do not. Yet the idea that the Federal [...] Continue Reading...


Selling Winners In Your Portfolio Is Never Easy

It’s not an easy thing to sell an asset that you still believe has legs. I needed to reduce exposure to Vanguard Extended Duration (EDV)¬†for many of my clients, in spite of the reality that they were sitting on 14-plus months of remarkable capital appreciation and income gains. What transpired? The exchange-traded tracker hit a stop-limit [...] Continue Reading...


Everything Is Awesome? Time To Rethink Your ETF Asset Mix

Less than three months ago, analysts everywhere argued a case for economic acceleration. It was almost as if financial authorities big and small had held a convention at LEGOLAND in California to declare that, “Everything Is Awesome.” Everything is not awesome. Jobless claims hit 10-month highs, factory orders have dropped for six consecutive months, consumer spending [...] Continue Reading...


Scarcity and Stocks: How to Follow (Or Avoid) A Late ’90s “New Economy” Playbook

For the better part of 15 months, I have pounded the table for longer-term U.S. treasuries. Most financial pundits thought that I was nuts in December of 2013; they debated my scarcity premise throughout 2014 and they dismiss my relative value argument here in 2015. About the only concession? The talking heads have often acknowledged [...] Continue Reading...


Why The Fed Has Lost The Will To Normalize Rates (And What You Can Do About It)

McKinsey & Company, a multinational consulting firm, recently compiled data on global debt and economic growth. The company determined that worldwide debt has reached nearly $200 trillion dollars, up from roughly $140 trillion at the time of the 2008 crisis. Gross world product grew approximately $15 trillion to $70 trillion in the same time frame. In [...] Continue Reading...


Saving Greece? What ETF Investors Should Really Be Focused On

February has been a terrible month for the U.S. economy, but a wonderful month for U.S. stocks. Translation? Investors do not believe that the Federal Reserve will raise overnight lending rates during an economic slowdown. Just how abysmal have the data been so far? Personal spending, construction spending, factory orders, international trade, business inventories, wholesale inventories, [...] Continue Reading...


U.S. Stocks and U.S. Bonds: What the Heck?

Most people believe that Tom Cruise became an international superstar with the release of the action drama, “Top Gun” back in 1986. However, I remember the actor from an earlier film, “Risky Business.” The popular motion picture capitalized on teenage angst and harebrained ways to make money. In the film itself, the main character, Joel [...] Continue Reading...


Currency Wars Offer Unique ETF Opportunities

David Bowie and Mick Jagger may believe that people are dancing on every street corner around the world. In actuality, however, they’re desperately competing with neighbors by devaluing their currencies. The craziness in currency manipulation is occurring on every continent and in every region. Japan’s brazen quantitative easing (QE) program has seen the battered yen hurt [...] Continue Reading...


ETF Allocation When Stocks Are Stuck In A Moment

The cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (a.k.a CAPE, P/E10, Shiller’s P/E) evaluates the average inflation-adjusted earnings for the S&P 500 over the previous 10 years. The long-term CAPE average is 16.5. Today’s CAPE is north of 27. And despite numerous detractors on its predictive value, P/E10 led directly to a Nobel Prize for its creator, Robert Shiller. With [...] Continue Reading...


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