On Monday, April 29, the S&P 500 may close at an all-time record peak. Yet very few folks seem to be talking about “selling high, and buying low.” If anything, a number of respectable analysts cheerily predict that any efforts to sell into market strength in May will be met quickly with a steady demand [...] Continue Reading...
The relative strength of the primary U.S. benchmarks — the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 — distorts the true picture for risk assets today. In fact, we do not even need to look closely to see the cracks all along the wall. For example, the most important metal to the world’s economy appears destined for [...] Continue Reading...
For the first time in 2013, investors do not appear to be tripping over themselves to buy every fractional percentage dip. Here on 4/15, the media have blamed the accelerated selling on commodity price depreciation and a disappointing GDP reading (7.7%) out of China. So we’re supposed to believe that a manic Monday where the domestic [...] Continue Reading...
U.S. stocks have been resilient in their response to bad news throughout the year. They may sink at the start of a trading day, but they’ve been able to recover quickly and finish strong. Consider the most important headlines on Friday, April 12. Consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped to its lowest level in 9 months. Retail sales [...] Continue Reading...
Treasury bonds are rocketing, commodities are reeling and the euro-zone’s economy is contracting. That is hardly the backdrop for continued equity price appreciation. Yet the U.S. stock market has had little resistance in capturing all-time records. Regardless of region, asset classes typically move in the same direction. It follows that one would not expect unabashed buying [...] Continue Reading...
Flare-ups in the euro-zone refuse to disappear entirely. On the heels of a disastrous Italian election and a full-fledged banking crisis in Cyprus, a Portuguese court has ruled that some of the austerity requirements for bailout dollars are discriminatory. Prime Minister Coelho hopes to find a workaround, but alas… securing bailout money in the near [...] Continue Reading...
I came across an interesting fact on the news wires recently. The S&P 500 has corrected at least 5% at least one time in the first 5 months of every year since 1996. What does that mean? It implies that the probability of seeing the benchmark fall to 1485 from 1565 is greater than any [...] Continue Reading...
Non-cyclical stock sectors (e.g., consumer staples, health care, utilities, etc.) often do well when there are concerns about economic growth. Indeed, exchange-traded funds representing one or more components of the non-cyclical arena have been the key drivers in the broader U.S. market’s run toward all-time records. Nevertheless, it is still a bit surprising that the potential [...] Continue Reading...
With S&P 500 stocks approaching all-time highs daily, it may be more instructive to look at potential hedges and “diversifiers.” Here are 3 ETFs that are less likely to receive accolades when investors are smitten with Google (GOOG) and Gilead (GILD). 1. iShares Silver Trust (SLV). Over the last year, SLV has served as a fine [...] Continue Reading...
In a “Then and Now” piece, the Wall Street Journal published a number of fascinating statistics. “Then” represented October of 2007… the last time that the Dow Jones Industrials Average notched nominal highs. “Now” represents March of 2013… the first time that the price-weighted index ever closed above 14,250. Household income has slipped 5.6% since October [...] Continue Reading...
