Archive | Bond ETFs

The Risk Of Owning Stock Assets and Holding Stock Assets Right Now

Hold-n-hope advocates believe that greater gains with stocks over investment grade bonds require nothing more than a commitment to accepting increased volatility. In other words, if you accept the occasional craziness of stock prices, then your rewards will be far more robust than lower yielding debt instruments. But is that even accurate? In the 15-year period [...] Continue Reading...


Allocating Assets When the Fed Talks Out Of Both Sides Of Its Mouth

One year ago, each of the 17 members of the Federal Reserve provided an expectation of where the fed funds rate would be at the end of 2015. The average came in at 1.1%. That might have required four to five rate hikes this year alone. By March, the expected year-end rate dropped to 0.65%. [...] Continue Reading...


Sky High Valuations? Lusterless Economy? It Just Doesn’t Matter!

Several years ago, Rolling Stone ranked the 10 best movies by former cast members of Saturday Night Live. Bill Murray barely made the list with Rushmore – an offbeat comedy from the late 90s. I remember thinking that Murray had been cheated in the editorial; he should have received additional nods for Caddyshack, Stripes, Lost [...] Continue Reading...


Rate-Sensitive, Energy-Sensitive Sectors Now Down 10%-Plus

Bullish borrowers have increased their margin debt to invest in stocks from $445 billion in January to $507 billion today. And why not? The overall price movement for growth sectors of the stock market remains healthy. Flashy sub-segments like cyber-security and biotech continue to soar. For example, I allocated a small portion of moderately aggressive [...] Continue Reading...


‘Taper Tantrum’ Round 2? It’s More Serious For Stocks This Time Around

By definition, a recovery is the regaining of something lost. Homeowners have partially (and in some instances, entirely) recovered the equity in their property since the start of the Great Recession. Similarly, market-based securities investors have regained their capital and even accumulated additional paper wealth. The jobs recovery is a bit more challenging to quantify. For [...] Continue Reading...


Why Greece Still Matters To Financial Markets

In recent commentary, I suggested that the inability for Greece to repay its debts can still have an adverse impact on stocks. Not everyone agrees with my assessment. Most in the media maintain that the euro-zone has already inoculated itself from the threat of a “Grexit.” Similarly, anonymous comments underneath my previous article(s) jokingly refer [...] Continue Reading...


Is It Too Early To Think About 2016?

The average economic expansion since the 1940s is roughly five years. The current recovery? We are now at the six year mark. Yet there’s a problem with the current environment that few are willing to talk about; that is, historically, the Federal Reserve raises overnight lending rates to slow economic growth and suppress inflationary tensions. [...] Continue Reading...


Weakness In Corporate Revenue Is A Bad Sign For ‘Buy-n-Hold’ Investors

There is one thing that has always nagged me during the 2nd longest bull market run in U.S. history. Corporations have roughly the same revenue per share today as they did halfway through 2007. And yet, sales growth per stock share has only recovered to the pre-crisis levels of 2007, whereas the S&P 500’s price [...] Continue Reading...


Should You Consider Making Tactical Changes To Your Asset Allocation Mix?

Yesterday, the S&P 500 logged in as the 3rd longest bull market in the benchmark’s history. Yes, yes… bull market’s don’t die of old age. Yet, what about health-restoring corrections of 10%? Shouldn’t they appear more regularly than 45 months (1371 days)? The current period of equanimity now registers as the 3rd longest without a [...] Continue Reading...


The Debt-Driven Expansion Requires Tweaks To Your Portfolio

The U.S. government spent $7.50 trillion above the country’s budget over the last six years to encourage economic growth as well as fulfill pre-existing obligations (e.g., defense/military, agriculture, Medicare/health, Social Security, education, transportation, interest on the federal debt, etc.). Yet the economy still only grew at annualized 2.1% in the period – a growth rate [...] Continue Reading...


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