Less than two weeks ago, a large number of media writers and analysts were expressing their exuberance for higher stock market highs. Most seemed to ignore the possibility that fewer and fewer corporations were participating in the S&P 500’s accomplishments. Sell in May and go away? The smart money may have already rebalanced in March… and it’s not like [...] Continue Reading...
Wasn’t it just a week ago when the 10-year treasury yield pushed 2.3%? Wasn’t it just a few days back when bond vigilantes piled into ETFs like ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)? Apparently, fearful investors needed little more than a single unimpressive jobs report to justify returning to a favorite safe haven. In fact, iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury (TLT) recovered a key short-term (50) [...] Continue Reading...
Virtually everyone acknowledges that Federal Reserve monetary policy (e.g., 0%-0.25% rate, QE 1, QE II, “Operation Twist,” etc.) has been extremely kind to stocks since early 2009. Yet, bulls and bears debate the impact of Fed policy going forward. For example, many bulls believe that stocks will continue to excel due to the Fed’s promise to keep rates at exceptionally low levels [...] Continue Reading...
We can all agree that the first 3 months were wonderful for risk takers. What’s more, we can all feel good that U.S. stocks ran at their fastest percentage clip since 1998. Of course, what happened in the summer of 1998 is pretty intriguing as well. The infamous hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management helped exacerbate the spread of an Asian currency [...] Continue Reading...
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan Chase, believes that the housing market has bottomed and that there’s virtually no risk of recession. However, the head of the most profitable U.S. financial corporation may be banking too much on the Federal Reserve alone. Granted, Bernanke is unlikely to step away from the electronic money printing press until job growth is double what [...] Continue Reading...
In the first two months of the year, SPDR Dow Jones Industrials (DIA) garnered 6.5% and the underlying benchmark made a successful run at 13000. It was a phenomenally fast start that persuaded many investors with cash on the sidelines to reconsider. Perhaps surprisingly, foreign stock ETFs dramatically outperformed domestic counterparts in January and February. For example, Vanguard Emerging Markets (VWO) raked [...] Continue Reading...
There are many times when it makes sense to choose an unconventional investing path. For example, last year, scores of prominent voices insisted that interest rates would rise. “Bond King” Bill Gross denounced U.S. government debt. Heck, S&P even downgraded it. And yet, investors who gobbled up U.S. Treasury bonds benefited from the “contrary-to-public-opinion” upside. The reasons for the unanticipated direction of yields are well-documented (e.g., expansion of the [...] Continue Reading...
Approximately one month ago, Standard & Poor’s placed 15 European nations on review for potential credit downgrades. In spite of the implications, Italian bonds began to climb and their yields began to fall, as many were hopeful that an upcoming summit between European Union leaders might put an end to the region’s spreading debt crisis. Indeed, on [...] Continue Reading...
Let’s face it. Maybe you weren’t cut out for volatility. And the stock market isn’t about to let you garner remarkable rewards in 2012… at least not without monstrous price swings. Can you turn to U.S. treasuries next year? Even if record-low yields didn’t rise, your return may not even keep up with inflation. It doesn’t look [...] Continue Reading...
By several measures, investors are every bit as afraid today as they were in the first week of October, when U.S. stocks had reached 52-week lows. Yet the S&P 500 is 11.5% higher than it was on 10/3/11. How can we tell that investors are still petrified? They’re flocking back to the perceived safety of the U.S. dollar and piling back into [...] Continue Reading...
