The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its survey of manufacturing activity on 9/1/10. The August Manufacturing Report on Business gave us its thirteenth consecutive month of expansion with a surprisingly robust reading of 56.3. Index readings higher than 50 indicate growth. “Boo-bears” are busy scouring the report for negative headlines to embrace. Construction spending decreased [...] Continue Reading...
Permabears love to talk about a “lack of conviction” on the part of the share purchasing public. Specifically, when upward momentum in stocks occurs on “low volume,” they dismiss the price movement outright. On Monday, 8/30/10, Dow stocks experienced a triple-digit pullback. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ both gave up more than 1.5%. However, with the trading [...] Continue Reading...
The financial media continue to perpetuate a “risk trade on, risk trade off” myth. Yet a better representation of what’s taking place in market-based securities is “developed market risk off, emerging market risk on.” Is it true that nearly every U.S. Treasury Bond ETF has been hitting 52-week highs on a daily basis? Absolutely. Yet you shouldn’t [...] Continue Reading...
Permabears will probably point to Thursday’s volatile stock sell-off as proof of a double-dip recession. They’ll also suggest that the market’s action is indicative of a major decline ahead. The problem that I have with ”get-me-noticed” predictions of devastation is the permanency of the position. For instance, when stocks move higher, permabears explain that it is either a [...] Continue Reading...
There’s a lot being made about crude oil settling below $75 per barrel again. On Wednesday, 8/18/2010, the commodity fell to a 3-week low. Yet there’s a larger trend that may be developing and that the mainstream media may be missing. Emerging market growth throughout Asia means an uptick in the demand for commodities… particularly, oil and agricultural products. [...] Continue Reading...
A wide variety of gold miners served up sparkling Q2 reports during the recent earnings season. Newmont Mining posted a 34% year-over-year sales increase, and promptly raised its dividend. TheStreet.com noted that precious metal miner Goldcorp (GG) increased its net income over 2009’s 2nd quarter by 457%. Meanwhile, Canadian miner Kinross Gold (KGC) posted 25% earnings per share growth. In spite of what [...] Continue Reading...
Drought and fire have severely damaged crops in Russia this week. Moreover, the country has responded by issuing a temporary, two-week ban on the export of grains like barley, wheat and rye. (Obligatory beer joke… insert here.) In spite of the fact that scores of analysts are warning about a glut of wheat from harvests in 2008 and 2009, wheat prices [...] Continue Reading...
Even a devout follower of financial news may have missed it; that is, the real engine behind renewed bullishness is the continuation of the China growth story. Granted, there’s been a variety of exceptional earnings reports, including UPS, 3M, Apple, Qualcomm and Pepsico. However, plenty of others expressed ”unusual uncertainty,” such as Amazon, Google, Starbucks and Bank of [...] Continue Reading...
There are times when the talking heads in the financial media are myopic. Naturally, everyone wants to know if tech bellwethers like IBM, Yahoo, TI and Apple will beat top-line revenue estimates. Undoubtedly, Goldman Sachs and BP are headline-grabbers due to the recent SEC settlement and the never-ending “spill.” Yet, I’m startled by the fact that you couldn’t find a decent feature on Halliburton’s earnings triumph. [...] Continue Reading...
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Report could not have been more dismal. The gauge fell to its lowest level of confidence since the 2009 start of the Obama Administration. The news weighed heavily on stocks, pushing the S&P 500 back into solid correction territory… roughly 12.5% off its April high. And yet, consumers and investors are as frightened [...] Continue Reading...
