Archive | Commodity ETFs

ETF Risk Management In The Face Of A Surging U.S. Dollar

Historically, when the U.S. dollar surges, forward S&P 500 earnings plummet. In the same vein, the last two times that the world’s reserve currency skyrocketed, the U.S. economy slipped into a recession. Come on, Gary. Do you really think that we have already dipped into recession territory? No, I do not. Yet the idea that the [...] Continue Reading...


Saving Greece? What ETF Investors Should Really Be Focused On

February has been a terrible month for the U.S. economy, but a wonderful month for U.S. stocks. Translation? Investors do not believe that the Federal Reserve will raise overnight lending rates during an economic slowdown. Just how abysmal have the data been so far? Personal spending, construction spending, factory orders, international trade, business inventories, wholesale [...] Continue Reading...


Currency Wars Offer Unique ETF Opportunities

David Bowie and Mick Jagger may believe that people are dancing on every street corner around the world. In actuality, however, they’re desperately competing with neighbors by devaluing their currencies. The craziness in currency manipulation is occurring on every continent and in every region. Japan’s brazen quantitative easing (QE) program has seen the battered yen [...] Continue Reading...


ETF Allocation When Stocks Are Stuck In A Moment

The cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (a.k.a CAPE, P/E10, Shiller’s P/E) evaluates the average inflation-adjusted earnings for the S&P 500 over the previous 10 years. The long-term CAPE average is 16.5. Today’s CAPE is north of 27. And despite numerous detractors on its predictive value, P/E10 led directly to a Nobel Prize for its creator, Robert Shiller. [...] Continue Reading...


ETFs For An Ongoing Stimulus Bubble

Canada, India, Turkey, Australia, China and Denmark. What do all of these countries have in common? The central bank of each nation has eased monetary policy to stimulate respective economies in 2015. What’s more, none of these actions had been anticipated; rather, the media described rate cuts as “surprising” or diminished reserve requirements as “unexpected.” [...] Continue Reading...


Risk Aversion Gains Momentum And Risk Taking Loses It

The case for investing in riskier assets has often been described as a sensible quest for yield and/or capital appreciation in a world with ultra-low interest rates. That helps to explain why the S&P 500 has defied the odds with respect to corrective activity, garnering double-digit percentage gains in 2012, 2013 and 2014. Yet the [...] Continue Reading...


3 ETF Investing Themes For A Wobbly U.S. Bull

Presumably, the Great Recession ended in June of 2009. Three months earlier on March 9, the stock market anticipated the modest recovery that is still intact. In essence, stocks began to rally well in advance of the actual turnaround in the U.S. economy. Similarly, the 10/09/2002-10/09/2007 bull market ended roughly three months before the start [...] Continue Reading...


Europe’s QE Experiment: Adding Stock ETF Exposure And Hedging Against The Unforeseen

The scope (current euro-zone member nations) and size ($1.1 trillion euros) of the European Central Bank’s latest stimulus effort has delighted the worldwide investing community. In fact, many began betting on a monumental quantitative easing “project” the minute that Europe registered year-over-year deflation of -0.2% for the month of December. This can be seen in [...] Continue Reading...


State of Disunion: Safer Haven Investments Diverge From Stocks

The S&P 500 soared 29.6% and 11.4% in 2013 and 2014 respectively, pushing the broad market benchmark to unimaginable heights. Net inflows into U.S. stock funds, including ETFs, also set records. Unfortunately, that is not always a positive sign for the asset class. The increased participation by the world’s investors in U.S. stocks may not [...] Continue Reading...


Late Stage Bull Markets: The Myth Of Stock Superiority?

I recently received an e-mail from a “wannabe” hold-n-hope investor. This particular investor expressed a belief that selling positions through stop-limit loss orders or with the benefit of a 200-day moving average only proved beneficial in 1929 and 2008. I countered with the reality that reducing stock exposure via selling or hedging benefited investors in [...] Continue Reading...


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