Citigroup’s Tom Fitzpatrick asserted that the U.S. market is emulating the pattern of a 1970s-style bear. The company’s chief technical analyst suggested that stocks would likely fall 20% or more on economic factors like sky-rocketing oil, declining economic activity, rising unemployment and a collapse in housing.
There are quite a few problems with Mr. Fitzpatrick’s assertion. Unemployment is woefully high due to a [...] Continue Reading...
Until recently, investors showed little interest in hedging against a potential collapse in the S&P 500. Some might have even described the environment as complacent with the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) spending most of the year in the “mid-teens.”
Now the VIX is back above 20. At that level, options participants anticipate an “annualized” change of 20% over [...] Continue Reading...
Last week, I wrote a piece on ETFs with remarkably positive trends in relative strength. Specifically, I highlighted 3 successful investments that rarely garner media coverage, yet deserved a bit more of the limelight. (See “Three ETFs With Momentum That You Probably Don’t Know Exist.”)
I received a great deal of direct feedback on this particular article. [...] Continue Reading...
There are a variety of ways to interpret stock market volatility. A rising CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) often typifies greater fear on the part of “options” investors such that they require protection against a monstrous sell-off. A widening of the daily trading range on a popular benchmark may also be indicative of explosive moves to the downside or upside. Moreover, upward revisions to the [...] Continue Reading...
Financial stocks rocketed ahead in the first quarter and Bank of America (BAC) recently received a high-profile upgrade. So why is the SPDR Select Sector Financials Fund (XLF) one of the worst performers over the last 5 days?
Aluminum giant, Alcoa, surprised Wall Street with its stronger-than anticipated earnings report. So why is the SPDR Select Sector [...] Continue Reading...
I realize that I may be jumping the March unemployment report gun, but job market conditions in the U.S. may soon hit an economic soft patch. Consider the following:
1. Real Estate Prices Continue To Fall. Even if we are very close to the proverbial bottom, this sobering fact prevents underwater homeowners from selling and relocating [...] Continue Reading...
My clients have benefited from a healthy slice of exposure to risk in 2012. Top ETF holdings include assets like SPDR S&P China (GXC), Vanguard Dividend Growth (VIG), iShares High Yield Corporate (HYG) and Vanguard Growth (VUG).
My income-oriented winners like JP Morgan Alerian MLP (AMJ) and PowerShares CEF Income (PCEF) have been noticably slower on the [...] Continue Reading...
In 2011, S&P 500 profits expanded 15%. And yet, the benchmark’s price finished in the very same place that it started the year. In essence, since prices flat-lined and earnings experienced double-digit growth, a fundamentally inexpensive stock market via the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) became even cheaper.
The most common reason cited for P/E contraction in 2011? The Euro Zone debt crisis.
Obviously, sovereign [...] Continue Reading...
The prospects for corporate earnings haven’t mattered much to the markets in 2011. Instead, European debt news drives stocks dramatically higher or lower.
Last week, stock assets tanked on less-than-anticipated demand for Italian bonds. This week, stocks skyrocket on better-than-expected desire for Spanish bonds.
Traders used to profit from this kind of volatility. They haven’t been doing [...] Continue Reading...
On the first day of December, 2011, a number of brand name corporations hit new 52-week highs. Here are a few that caught my eye: McDonalds (MCD), Phillip Morris (PM), Diageo (DEO), Kraft (KFT) and Treehouse Foods (THS).
Keep in mind, most of the media attention centers on the discretionary spending of the consumer (e.g., “Black Friday” widescreens, ”Cyber Monday” acquisitions of [...] Continue Reading...
