Archive | Currency ETFs

Do Not Blame China For Your Missed Opportunity To Reduce Risk

Some are crediting me with calling the 6-day mini-crash. On the contrary. When I wrote “15 Warning Signs Of A Market Top” on August 18, the intent was to discuss micro-economic (corporate), macro-economic, fundamental and technical reasons for reducing one’s overall allocation to riskier assets. I did not predict the epic fall from grace for [...] Continue Reading...


There’s Still Time To Lower Your Exposure To Riskier ETFs

A fair number of commenters, callers and perma-bulls were relatively tough on me in May when I suggested a strategic decision to raise cash levels. They were even tougher on me when I mentioned the possibility of picking up safer havens like intermediate treasuries via iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond (IEF) and intermediate-to-long duration municipal [...] Continue Reading...


The Great Recalibration: The Appearance Of Risk Aversion In Credit Spreads And Equity ETFs

Investors have seen a great deal of volatility in U.S. treasuries over the past six months. Early in the year, the combination of recessionary data stateside as well as quantitative easing (QE) measures in Europe helped propel demand for U.S. sovereign debt. Then came the massive unwind, alongside Fed hints at upcoming rate hikes; treasury [...] Continue Reading...


Weak Wages and Weaker Manufacturing, But How ‘Bout Those Rate Hike Expectations!

I started working at the age of 13. I wanted to be productive. I wanted to make money. Gardener, golf caddy, food deliverer, waiter, bartender, entrepreneur, researcher, analyst, writer, planner, adviser, money manager – I probably spent as much time cursing and complaining as I did whistling. Nevertheless, thirty five years of work contributed to [...] Continue Reading...


Allocating Assets When the Fed Talks Out Of Both Sides Of Its Mouth

One year ago, each of the 17 members of the Federal Reserve provided an expectation of where the fed funds rate would be at the end of 2015. The average came in at 1.1%. That might have required four to five rate hikes this year alone. By March, the expected year-end rate dropped to 0.65%. [...] Continue Reading...


Is It Too Early To Think About 2016?

The average economic expansion since the 1940s is roughly five years. The current recovery? We are now at the six year mark. Yet there’s a problem with the current environment that few are willing to talk about; that is, historically, the Federal Reserve raises overnight lending rates to slow economic growth and suppress inflationary tensions. [...] Continue Reading...


3 Reasons June Gloom Is Already Hitting The Markets

The theme of maintaining a sunny disposition in spite of genuine concerns has always been prevalent in music. Bobby McFerrin told people not to fear cash flow troubles or paying the rent late in his 80’s chart-topper “Don’t Worry, Be Happy.” Similarly, an animated meerkat from 1994’s The Lion King sang about ignoring one’s worries [...] Continue Reading...


International Stock ETFs: One Way Or Another

As much as investors might like to believe that the U.S. stock market is still “grinding higher” in 2015, the reality is that it may be grinding to a halt. S&P 500 stocks have been stuck in a 4% trading ranged for the last 10 weeks; they’ve been stuck in a 2% trading range for [...] Continue Reading...


Is Waning Enthusiasm For U.S. Dollar-Denominated Assets Temporary?

The U.S. economy is in trouble. After expanding at a modest 2.2% in the 4th quarter, economic growth dimmed to a scant 0.2% in Q1 of 2015. Yet privately, many are acknowledging the likelihood that revisions to first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) will indicate a trend toward contraction. Should investors actually concern themselves with [...] Continue Reading...


How Much Faith In The Fed Is Too Much Faith?

What if the U.S. economy fails to pick back up from its dismal first quarter? Then the U.S. Federal Reserve will push off the frequency and the magnitude of any increases in overnight lending rates. That’s what the U.S. stock market is telling investors, as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ break above record highs. That’s [...] Continue Reading...


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