Archive | Currency ETFs

Are The Media Exaggerating The Bull Market?

Notorious bears like Peter Schiff and John Hussman have been warning about the bull market’s inevitable demise for many years. Ignoring their gloom-n-doom predictions has been the better way to go. After all, six years of zero percent interest rate policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve successfully reflated portfolios heavily tilted toward U.S. equities. On the [...] Continue Reading...


U.S. Large Cap Stocks: The Only Risky Asset Class Capable of Avoiding a Chaotic World?

It should not be too difficult for investors to remember the financial media’s general recommendation for stock exposure in the previous decade. Based primarily on the enormous success of emerging markets and developed foreign markets – talking heads on CNBC regularly talked about total market cap of world equities being a 50% split between the [...] Continue Reading...


Three December Charts Are Emulating The September-October Swoon

I may expect a few bad trading days. I may even believe that we are likely to see a modest pullback of 3%-4% in U.S. equities before Santa reinvigorates the rally. Nevertheless, a variety of indicators are foreshadowing danger – the same coal mine canaries that preceded the September-October sell-off. For example, high yield corporate bonds [...] Continue Reading...


Discussing the Role of Volatility in Asset Allocation and Risk Management Strategies

I just returned home from the 20th Annual Global Indexing & ETFs Conference in Scottsdale, Arizona. Popular topics included moving beyond cap-weighted index funds, the growing search for yield and the increasing role of volatility in the management of risk. The conference organizers had asked me to participate on the volatility panel and the moderator kicked [...] Continue Reading...


Are Stocks Really The Only Game In Town?

Contrarians must be thinking about the sustainability of the year-end stock rally after six weeks of remarkable gains. The most recent AAII Investor Sentiment Survey discovered that a whopping 52 percent of respondents were bullish, far surpassing the long-term trend of 39 percent. Meanwhile, nearly $43 billion of inflows poured into U.S. equity ETFs in [...] Continue Reading...


A Diversified, Safer Way To Hedge Against Stocks Using ETFs

There are plenty of ways that you can hurt a man and bring him to the ground. You can beat him, you can cheat him, you can treat him bad and leave him when he’s down. Queen – Another One Bites The Dust Over the last 12 months, most efforts to hedge against U.S. stock risk have proven [...] Continue Reading...


3 Seemingly Crazy ETF Ideas

Japan has now registered two consecutive quarters of economic contraction – a persistent absence of growth that defines most recessions. For worse or for better, the world’s third largest economy will simply commit additional electronic money printing resources to acquire more Japanese stock and bond assets. This activity weakens the yen which, in turn, emboldens [...] Continue Reading...


Three Critical ETF Trends That Require Monitoring

When influential managers (e.g., large financial institutions, hedge funds, etc.) borrow low-yielding assets to invest in higher-appreciating, higher-yielding ones, they are engaging in a speculative art. What is the nature of the artwork here in 2014? Borrow as much yen and euro at negligible rates as possible to finance the acquisition of U.S. stocks and [...] Continue Reading...


ETF Flows: Nobody Believes In Europe, Everyone Believes In North America

The SPDR S&P 500 Trust (SPY) trades at a P/E (trailing 12 months) of 18.64 and a P/B of 2.7. The average P/E ratio since the 1870’s is roughly 15, while the current P/B is higher than 82% of the bull market tops since the mid-1920s. Although several may try to describe the U.S. stock market [...] Continue Reading...


Are Energy ETFs The Key To A Sustainable Bull Market?

Theoretically, the prospect for investing in riskier assets should be dim. Consider the weakness in real estate – a major component of the U.S. economy. Mortgage application volume recently fell to its lowest level since 1995. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks are expensive on nearly all of the traditional measures. Cyclically-adjusted P/E ratios suggest that stocks may be [...] Continue Reading...


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