Archive | Dividend ETFs

ETF Allocation When Stocks Are Stuck In A Moment

The cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (a.k.a CAPE, P/E10, Shiller’s P/E) evaluates the average inflation-adjusted earnings for the S&P 500 over the previous 10 years. The long-term CAPE average is 16.5. Today’s CAPE is north of 27. And despite numerous detractors on its predictive value, P/E10 led directly to a Nobel Prize for its creator, Robert Shiller. With [...] Continue Reading...


Risk Aversion Gains Momentum And Risk Taking Loses It

The case for investing in riskier assets has often been described as a sensible quest for yield and/or capital appreciation in a world with ultra-low interest rates. That helps to explain why the S&P 500 has defied the odds with respect to corrective activity, garnering double-digit percentage gains in 2012, 2013 and 2014. Yet the preference [...] Continue Reading...


3 ETF Investing Themes For A Wobbly U.S. Bull

Presumably, the Great Recession ended in June of 2009. Three months earlier on March 9, the stock market anticipated the modest recovery that is still intact. In essence, stocks began to rally well in advance of the actual turnaround in the U.S. economy. Similarly, the 10/09/2002-10/09/2007 bull market ended roughly three months before the start of [...] Continue Reading...


Relative Value The Reason To Keep Buying Munis and Long Bond ETFs

Since the Reserve Bank of New Zealand first formerly targeted inflation rates roughly 25 years ago, other central banks around the globe have followed suit; that is, many banks have been setting medium-term rates that prices should rise on an annualized basis, and then presenting those percentages publicly. Two-and-a-half years back, the U.S. Federal Reserve, placed [...] Continue Reading...


The Best ETFs For Positioning Your Portfolio In 2015

At the beginning of each New Year, Seeking Alpha, the popular financial web portal, interviews Gary Gordon for its Positioning for 2015 series. Here is a transcript of that exchange. SA’s Carolyn Pairitz (CP): How would your clients describe your investing style/philosophy? Gary Gordon (GG): My clients would recite my mantra… There are four possible investing outcomes (i.e., [...] Continue Reading...


The 3 “Macro” Questions Investors Must Ask Heading Into 2015

I am ecstatic that the majority of my client base had 65%-70% long exposure in lower-volatility stock ETFs over the last two trading sessions. The S&P 500 picked up roughly 4.5%, which means that these portfolio balances rose approximately 3.0% since the U.S. Federal Reserve promised to be “patient” with respect to raising overnight lending [...] Continue Reading...


Are The Media Exaggerating The Bull Market?

Notorious bears like Peter Schiff and John Hussman have been warning about the bull market’s inevitable demise for many years. Ignoring their gloom-n-doom predictions has been the better way to go. After all, six years of zero percent interest rate policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve successfully reflated portfolios heavily tilted toward U.S. equities. On the [...] Continue Reading...


U.S. Large Cap Stocks: The Only Risky Asset Class Capable of Avoiding a Chaotic World?

It should not be too difficult for investors to remember the financial media’s general recommendation for stock exposure in the previous decade. Based primarily on the enormous success of emerging markets and developed foreign markets – talking heads on CNBC regularly talked about total market cap of world equities being a 50% split between the [...] Continue Reading...


Discussing the Role of Volatility in Asset Allocation and Risk Management Strategies

I just returned home from the 20th Annual Global Indexing & ETFs Conference in Scottsdale, Arizona. Popular topics included moving beyond cap-weighted index funds, the growing search for yield and the increasing role of volatility in the management of risk. The conference organizers had asked me to participate on the volatility panel and the moderator kicked [...] Continue Reading...


Are Stocks Really The Only Game In Town?

Contrarians must be thinking about the sustainability of the year-end stock rally after six weeks of remarkable gains. The most recent AAII Investor Sentiment Survey discovered that a whopping 52 percent of respondents were bullish, far surpassing the long-term trend of 39 percent. Meanwhile, nearly $43 billion of inflows poured into U.S. equity ETFs in [...] Continue Reading...


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