Treasury bonds are rocketing, commodities are reeling and the euro-zone’s economy is contracting. That is hardly the backdrop for continued equity price appreciation. Yet the U.S. stock market has had little resistance in capturing all-time records. Regardless of region, asset classes typically move in the same direction. It follows that one would not expect unabashed buying [...] Continue Reading...
Flare-ups in the euro-zone refuse to disappear entirely. On the heels of a disastrous Italian election and a full-fledged banking crisis in Cyprus, a Portuguese court has ruled that some of the austerity requirements for bailout dollars are discriminatory. Prime Minister Coelho hopes to find a workaround, but alas… securing bailout money in the near [...] Continue Reading...
I genuinely expected the primary media outlets to spin the 7.6% unemployment rate as cause for celebration. Instead, many finally chose to explain the reality behind employment in America; that is, the number of potential employees in the labor force is at 63.3% — the lowest percentage of workers in the workforce since 1979. Psychologically, it [...] Continue Reading...
Here in the first week of April of 2013, an overwhelming number of folks believe one truth to be unassailable. For worse or for better, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s unconventional interest rate easing has pushed dollars into riskier assets, including higher-yielding debt, equities and real estate. Beyond crediting the Fed with a modern-day “wealth effect,” however, [...] Continue Reading...
Over the course of the 4-year bull market, I’ve kept an eye on the percentage of S&P 100 stocks that reside above a long-term 200-day trendline. Market pressures always seemed to develop when the level approached 86%-90%. Similarly, when the 50-day moving average for the S&P 100 reached 85%, you could pretty much count on [...] Continue Reading...
Investors may be heartened to discover that the Cyprus bailout is back on track. I am not sure how that will prevent Europeans in Italy and Spain from slowly moving their money out of beleaguered banks, but that is an issue for another day. Right now, broad-based U.S. large cap stocks are trading at record levels [...] Continue Reading...
People are feeling better about spending money. Similarly, investors are feeling better about risking it. The problem is, whenever people begin to feel wealthy due to a faulty premise (i.e., the U.S. Federal Reserve can keep buying bonds to depress interest rates without longer-term implications), they may spend more than they have. Others may blindly [...] Continue Reading...
Non-cyclical stock sectors (e.g., consumer staples, health care, utilities, etc.) often do well when there are concerns about economic growth. Indeed, exchange-traded funds representing one or more components of the non-cyclical arena have been the key drivers in the broader U.S. market’s run toward all-time records. Nevertheless, it is still a bit surprising that the potential [...] Continue Reading...
In a “Then and Now” piece, the Wall Street Journal published a number of fascinating statistics. “Then” represented October of 2007… the last time that the Dow Jones Industrials Average notched nominal highs. “Now” represents March of 2013… the first time that the price-weighted index ever closed above 14,250. Household income has slipped 5.6% since October [...] Continue Reading...
U.S. stocks (S&P 500) have packed on Olympic-sized gains through the initial eight weeks of 2013. Fed policy uncertainty aside, 6%-plus capital appreciation on low volatility is impressive by any measure. The bulk of the run-up is attributable to industries tied to economic growth and enhancement. Sector ETFs that represent financials, industrials, technology and energy have [...] Continue Reading...
