Here in the first week of April of 2013, an overwhelming number of folks believe one truth to be unassailable. For worse or for better, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s unconventional interest rate easing has pushed dollars into riskier assets, including higher-yielding debt, equities and real estate. Beyond crediting the Fed with a modern-day “wealth effect,” however, [...] Continue Reading...
Eighteen months ago, Jim Rogers explained that “everybody is having a wonderful time running the printing presses.” His answer? Protect yourself by owning real assets. In fact, the popular investing guru has publicly denounced equities for years while simultaneously expressing a preference for precious metals and agricultural commodities. Whenever you listen to Mr. Rogers, you may [...] Continue Reading...
The warning signs for a stock market pullback are everywhere. Historically, a 17% move over 17 weeks (sans correction) is not only substantive in size, it may be “long in the tooth.” What’s more, the ultra-low levels on the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) demonstrate complacency. Seasonal patterns are another concern. Specifically, a wide variety [...] Continue Reading...
Wayne Lin manages money at Baltimore-based Legg Mason Inc. In a phone interview with the folks at Bloomberg, he explained that many investors have been surprised by the significant under-performance of emerging market equities in the global “risk-on” rally. How anemic have the upside gains for emergers been? Â Since the October lows of 2011, Vanguard Emerging [...] Continue Reading...
Over several decades, I have produced content for radio, television, magazines and web sites. And one of my longest-standing themes has been the silliness surrounding what constitutes a “bargain” in a stock market. Advocates for employing price-to-earnings ratios (P/Es) debate whether to use trailing 12 months or forward 12 months or trailing 10 years; some even [...] Continue Reading...
Prior to the 2007-2009 financial meltdown in the U.S., risk-takers thoroughly embraced the idea that emerging markets would regularly trounce the developed economies. At times, this simply meant that emerging market stocks would outperform on the upside. At other times, this referred to the ability of “emergers” to hold on to gains… even if U.S. [...] Continue Reading...
Over the last 3 months, U.S. small cap stocks as well as foreign and emerging market small caps logged spectacular profits. Moreover, they beat the pants off of larger-cap competition. Consider the recent highs in various price ratios. For instance, SPDR S&P Emerging Market Small Cap (EWX):iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) demonstrates increasing relative strength for [...] Continue Reading...
The S&P 500 has not merely been resilient in its six consecutive weeks of gains. The celebrated U.S. stock benchmark has been unstoppable in its 8.3% unrealized run-up. Granted, nearly everyone expects a period of mild selling activity (a.k.a. “a breather”). Indeed, history certainly suggests that unbridled enthusiasm usually gets a reality check or three. The [...] Continue Reading...
The S&P 500 set an all-time record high on 10/9/2007. Three weeks earlier, the iShares High Yield Corporate Bond Fund (HYG) had reached its pinnacle, and then promptly began falling from grace. Does this suggest that when low-rated bonds begin to struggle, stocks are not far behind? If so, what should we make of the fact [...] Continue Reading...
Las Vegas odds-makers believe that the San Francisco 49ers will beat the Baltimore Ravens to win Superbowl XLVII this Sunday, February 3. That’s what is implied by a 4-point spread. In contrast, if the professionals did not feel that the 49ers had a definitive edge, there would neither be a spread nor a so-called “favorite.” And [...] Continue Reading...
