Is the American consumer genuinely spending? While the combination of rising home prices and higher 401k values may contribute to a temporary wealth effect, higher payroll taxes may begin to exact a toll. Consider the curious case of SPDR Retail (XRT). Its year-to-date 16.2% haul is better than most large and mid-cap benchmarks. Equally impressive, XRT [...] Continue Reading...
The relative strength of the primary U.S. benchmarks — the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 — distorts the true picture for risk assets today. In fact, we do not even need to look closely to see the cracks all along the wall. For example, the most important metal to the world’s economy appears destined for [...] Continue Reading...
For the first time in 2013, investors do not appear to be tripping over themselves to buy every fractional percentage dip. Here on 4/15, the media have blamed the accelerated selling on commodity price depreciation and a disappointing GDP reading (7.7%) out of China. So we’re supposed to believe that a manic Monday where the domestic [...] Continue Reading...
Eighteen months ago, Jim Rogers explained that “everybody is having a wonderful time running the printing presses.” His answer? Protect yourself by owning real assets. In fact, the popular investing guru has publicly denounced equities for years while simultaneously expressing a preference for precious metals and agricultural commodities. Whenever you listen to Mr. Rogers, you may [...] Continue Reading...
Non-cyclical stock sectors (e.g., consumer staples, health care, utilities, etc.) often do well when there are concerns about economic growth. Indeed, exchange-traded funds representing one or more components of the non-cyclical arena have been the key drivers in the broader U.S. market’s run toward all-time records. Nevertheless, it is still a bit surprising that the potential [...] Continue Reading...
What exactly makes an exchange-traded fund in a given economic segment “cheap?” I am beginning to think that the concept is as arbitrary and as disobliging as the automatic spending cuts in Washington D.C. For example, Russ Koesterich is the Chief Investment Strategist for Blackrock. I genuinely enjoy reading his perspectives on “everything iShares.” Indeed, every [...] Continue Reading...
Prior to the 2007-2009 financial meltdown in the U.S., risk-takers thoroughly embraced the idea that emerging markets would regularly trounce the developed economies. At times, this simply meant that emerging market stocks would outperform on the upside. At other times, this referred to the ability of “emergers” to hold on to gains… even if U.S. [...] Continue Reading...
U.S. stocks (S&P 500) have packed on Olympic-sized gains through the initial eight weeks of 2013. Fed policy uncertainty aside, 6%-plus capital appreciation on low volatility is impressive by any measure. The bulk of the run-up is attributable to industries tied to economic growth and enhancement. Sector ETFs that represent financials, industrials, technology and energy have [...] Continue Reading...
Investing in stock assets when the S&P 500 is hitting fresh highs can be as dangerous as driving on a yet-to-be-plowed stretch of highway. You may get to your destination without a hitch. Then again, you might spin out of control and crash. At present, both the Eurozone’s ongoing recession and “Snowmageddon” on the East Coast [...] Continue Reading...
Rising stock prices often have a way of covering up significant woes. Many journalists and market prognosticators had all but buried the Eurozone debt crisis, declaring that bankrupt member nations had discovered a viable path forward. Not surprisingly, the facts are starting to trip up the rhetoric. Spain’s economy shrank 0.7% in the final quarter of [...] Continue Reading...
