Archive | ETF Philosophy

Do Celebrated Fund Managers Know More About the Credit Balloon Than You Know?

There was a time when hedge funds may have offered something unique in the way of performance. You may have been able to make a case for them alongside a mix of stocks and intermediate-term treasury bonds. Over the last three years, however, hedge funds have been downright abysmal. Consider the IQ Hedge Multi-Strategy Index ETF (QAI). It [...] Continue Reading...


How Should You Address The Existing Risk Of Disastrous Loss In The Market?

The previous decade’s financial crisis did not begin in earnest until 2008. Bear Stearns. Lehman Brothers. AIG. And yet, the warning signs had appeared long beforehand. Real estate sales had turned negative on a year-over-year basis in 2006, even as prices kept climbing. Meanwhile, SPDR Select Sector Financials (XLF) logged -21% in 2007, even as [...] Continue Reading...


“It’s The Economy, Stupid.” Not According To Aggressively Allocated Stock Investors

In the 1980s and early 1990s, Japan’s economy was nothing short of spectacular. Countries around the globe endeavored to emulate it. Total Quality Management. Just-In-Time. Reengineering. Those “buzz words” for business had even found their way into the training practices for the U.S. Navy. Since 1992, however, Japan’s economy has stagnated. The value of goods [...] Continue Reading...


5 Inconvenient Stock Truths For The Bold And The Reckless

Here are five big-league reasons to evaluate your current asset mix: 1. Credit Fundamentals Are Deteriorating. What do you remember about the financial crisis in 2008? Perhaps you think about a term like “subprime mortgage.” Or maybe you recall the way home values and stock prices collapsed. Either way, most would agree that households and [...] Continue Reading...


Stock Market Gains: A Vote Of Confidence For The Economy?

Wall Street analysts may regard the U.S. economy in a favorable light. Indeed, many believe that higher stock prices reflect optimism about the country’s economic future. Yet¬†Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index portrays an entirely different picture. More and more Americans believe the economy is getting worse. In fact, even as U.S. stocks push upward to [...] Continue Reading...


What Is The Most Opportunistic Asset Class Right Now?

Are the new all-time highs in U.S. large cap stocks as big a deal as the media would have you believe? On a year-over-year basis, other asset classes have been more impressive. Bonds via Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND), gold via SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and the “risk-off” Japanese yen via Currency Shares Yen Trust [...] Continue Reading...


How To Avoid Harsh Consequences When Borrowing Stock Gains From The Future

According to Blackrock, since the S&P 500 hit its October 2007 peak of 1565, it has produced a total return of approximately 60%. The market gains are three times the increase in the growth of the U.S. economy itself (GDP); they are also three times the increase in the growth of corporate earnings. What does [...] Continue Reading...


Stocks and Bonds: Which Asset Class Balloon Will Pop First?

In 2013, the S&P 500 closed at a record high at the same time that the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield closed at a record low. The reason? The Federal Reserve had been buying hundreds of millions of government bonds as part of its quantitative easing (QE) program. Indeed, back in 2013, Fed leaders determined [...] Continue Reading...


Bonds Say To Stocks, “We’re Just Not That Into You.”

Five years ago, several European countries (e.g., Portugal, Italy, Greece, etc.) appeared as if they might default on their sovereign debt obligations. Gold prices spiked. The Japanese yen soared. U.S. Treasury bond yields plummeted. And the S&P 500 fell nearly 20% before globally coordinated central bank activity resuscitated investor appetite for U.S stocks. Today, Europe appears [...] Continue Reading...


Record Low Interest Rates: Is This Thing Getting Out Of Control?

Some New Yorkers may hate me for saying so, but I did not care for Joe Namath. I never liked Mark Gastineau either. I am (and have always been) a devout fan of the New York Giants. And if you love “Big Blue” – if you revere the “New York Football Giants” – there’s a [...] Continue Reading...


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