Archive | ETF Philosophy

What Is The Most Opportunistic Asset Class Right Now?

Are the new all-time highs in U.S. large cap stocks as big a deal as the media would have you believe? On a year-over-year basis, other asset classes have been more impressive. Bonds via Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND), gold via SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and the “risk-off” Japanese yen via Currency Shares Yen Trust [...] Continue Reading...


How To Avoid Harsh Consequences When Borrowing Stock Gains From The Future

According to Blackrock, since the S&P 500 hit its October 2007 peak of 1565, it has produced a total return of approximately 60%. The market gains are three times the increase in the growth of the U.S. economy itself (GDP); they are also three times the increase in the growth of corporate earnings. What does [...] Continue Reading...


Stocks and Bonds: Which Asset Class Balloon Will Pop First?

In 2013, the S&P 500 closed at a record high at the same time that the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield closed at a record low. The reason? The Federal Reserve had been buying hundreds of millions of government bonds as part of its quantitative easing (QE) program. Indeed, back in 2013, Fed leaders determined [...] Continue Reading...


Bonds Say To Stocks, “We’re Just Not That Into You.”

Five years ago, several European countries (e.g., Portugal, Italy, Greece, etc.) appeared as if they might default on their sovereign debt obligations. Gold prices spiked. The Japanese yen soared. U.S. Treasury bond yields plummeted. And the S&P 500 fell nearly 20% before globally coordinated central bank activity resuscitated investor appetite for U.S stocks. Today, Europe appears [...] Continue Reading...


Record Low Interest Rates: Is This Thing Getting Out Of Control?

Some New Yorkers may hate me for saying so, but I did not care for Joe Namath. I never liked Mark Gastineau either. I am (and have always been) a devout fan of the New York Giants. And if you love “Big Blue” – if you revere the “New York Football Giants” – there’s a [...] Continue Reading...


Why You May Want To Sell Into The Post-Brexit Rally

For the better part of six years, between December of 2008 and December of 2014, the Federal Reserve created hundreds of billions of electronic dollar credits to pump up asset prices (e.g., stocks, bonds, real estate. etc.). Theoretically, the subsequent wealth effect would encourage businesses to invest in their growth, consumers to spend on discretionary items [...] Continue Reading...


Correlation Does Not Imply Causation, But It Does Mean ‘Lower Your Stock Allocation’

If you are fortunate enough to have $750,000 equity in a $1,000,000 home, and a fire ravages the property, what is your number one concern? The protection of the equity. Granted, you might be extremely curious about how the fire started. You may even want to know whether or not there was something you could [...] Continue Reading...


Lower Rates For Longer: Will It Genuinely Benefit Stock Investors?

If the price that one pays for an asset is “fair” or “reasonable,” then one should not doubt having made the transaction. He/she might need to reevaluate whether the current price still reflects a reasonable value at a later date. After all, if a company’s share price has risen dramatically in relation to declining sales [...] Continue Reading...


Zero Rate Hikes In 2016? It Still Won’t Be Enough To Help The Economy Or Stocks

According to the Goldman Sachs Current Activity Indicator (CAI), economic well-being peaked in November of 2014. The erosion from 4.1% down to 1.3% over the last 18 months demonstrates just how vulnerable the U.S. economy currently is. Not surprisingly, economic weakness has taken its toll on stock assets. The S&P 500 has not gained meaningful ground [...] Continue Reading...


Time In The Markets, Not ‘Timing’ The Markets? At Least Know The Facts

What do China, Japan, India, England, Germany… heck, most of the significant economies around the globe, share in common? Bear market declines in stock prices of 20% or more. Several ETFs demonstrate the breadth of the global depreciation in equities. For example, SPDR EURO STOXX 50 (FEZ) illustrates the doggedness of the downtrend in Europe. [...] Continue Reading...


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