Archive | ETF Philosophy

What the Federal Reserve’s Policy Guidance Means For ETF Investors

The market supposedly climbs a “Wall of Worry,” at least until those concerns overwhelm participants. Yet the only apprehension that might send stock investors for the exit doors today relates to the timing and the pace of central bank rate hikes. When it comes to a number of the traditional alarms – geopolitical struggles, global [...] Continue Reading...


Bond ETFs: Selling the Rumor, Buying The News

The appetite for stock risk is softening, yet few people are talking about it. Take a look at the “Advance-Decline Line” – one of the more popular technical analysis tools for identifying potential trend reversals. It dropped below a short-term moving average (50 SMA) in early August; it is now below the key trendline in [...] Continue Reading...


Currency Hedged Stock ETFs Can Protect A Diversified Portfolio

The U.S. economy has been growing at an annualized pace of roughly 2% since the current expansion began in June of 2009. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first half of 2014 hovered around a paltry 1%. And while many contend that 2nd quarter growth at approximately 4% is signaling better times ahead, members of [...] Continue Reading...


How ETF Investors Can Prepare For A 10% Correction

What is the longest period of time that the S&P 500 has traded without a 10% correction? According to Bespoke Investment Group, the record is a blissful 1,127-day run from July 1984 to August 1987. The current rally? 1,069 days. The waters are so calm, in fact, that only 13.3% of respondents to the most [...] Continue Reading...


Choosing Your Domestic and Foreign Stock Allocation

There are times when an important statistic simply does not pack a punch. For instance, the percentage of working-aged individuals employed in the labor force sits at 62.8%. This percentage dwells in a 36-year low cellar. Why is it so troubling? The lack of workers adversely affects middle-class consumption capability – the supposed engine that [...] Continue Reading...


Emerging Market ETFs Are Taking Back The World

More often than not, if you tell me that an asset is roughly 20% above its long-term trendline, I will tell you that the investment is overbought. I might even explain that a pullback to the 200-day moving average is a necessary prerequisite before buying the asset or, at the very least, an 8%-10% sell-off [...] Continue Reading...


Why Overvalued Stock ETFs Still Offer Opportunity

Let us recall that every significant economist and every major U.S. investment firm predicted interest rates would climb in 2014. The primary basis for the assessment? U.S. economic growth would accelerate and encourage the Federal Reserve to end ultra-easy monetary measures. Well, now that we’ve seen a so-called acceleration in the second quarter – now [...] Continue Reading...


Profit Margins And ‘Fairly Valued’ U.S. Stock ETFs

Money managers like myself may not discuss it often, but they probably have an “Uh Oh Indicator.” What is it? When certain clients ask why any amount of cash rests in money market accounts – why more of the money is not being committed to the stock benchmark du jour (i.e., NASDAQ in 1999, MSCI [...] Continue Reading...


Record Setting Stock ETFs: It’s About The Stimulus, Not The Economy

At the beginning of the year, analysts and economists explained why interest rates would climb significantly. They anticipated a year-end 10-year yield of 3.4%, not 2.4%. Only a few bond fund managers, doom-n-gloomers and contrarians dared to suggest that rates would drop. (For more on the topic, review my January commentary, “Against The Herd: Lower Rates, [...] Continue Reading...


Questions For U.S. Stock ETF Bulls

Have you studied the history of stocks in the U.S? Most people are aware of the crash in 1929 as well as the capital depreciation that occurred through 1932. Yet many may not be aware of the government stimulus in 1933 that helped the market soar 200% over the next four years. While the stimulus [...] Continue Reading...


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