Archive | ETF Strategy

3 ETF Investing Themes For A Wobbly U.S. Bull

Presumably, the Great Recession ended in June of 2009. Three months earlier on March 9, the stock market anticipated the modest recovery that is still intact. In essence, stocks began to rally well in advance of the actual turnaround in the U.S. economy. Similarly, the 10/09/2002-10/09/2007 bull market ended roughly three months before the start of [...] Continue Reading...


Relative Value The Reason To Keep Buying Munis and Long Bond ETFs

Since the Reserve Bank of New Zealand first formerly targeted inflation rates roughly 25 years ago, other central banks around the globe have followed suit; that is, many banks have been setting medium-term rates that prices should rise on an annualized basis, and then presenting those percentages publicly. Two-and-a-half years back, the U.S. Federal Reserve, placed [...] Continue Reading...


Europe’s QE Experiment: Adding Stock ETF Exposure And Hedging Against The Unforeseen

The scope (current euro-zone member nations) and size ($1.1 trillion euros) of the European Central Bank’s latest stimulus effort has delighted the worldwide investing community. In fact, many began betting on a monumental quantitative easing “project” the minute that Europe registered year-over-year deflation of -0.2% for the month of December. This can be seen in [...] Continue Reading...


State of Disunion: Safer Haven Investments Diverge From Stocks

The S&P 500 soared 29.6% and 11.4% in 2013 and 2014 respectively, pushing the broad market benchmark to unimaginable heights. Net inflows into U.S. stock funds, including ETFs, also set records. Unfortunately, that is not always a positive sign for the asset class. The increased participation by the world’s investors in U.S. stocks may not be [...] Continue Reading...


Late Stage Bull Markets: The Myth Of Stock Superiority?

I recently received an e-mail from a “wannabe” hold-n-hope investor. This particular investor expressed a belief that selling positions through stop-limit loss orders or with the benefit of a 200-day moving average only proved beneficial in 1929 and 2008. I countered with the reality that reducing stock exposure via selling or hedging benefited investors in every [...] Continue Reading...


How Long Before “They’re Raising Rates” To “They’re Considering QE4?”

The media are telling us that U.S. stocks have been under pressure this January due to global growth fears and an accompanying rout across the entire commodity space. Yet that only tells a small part of the story. After all, the S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY) has performed quite admirably over the past three years, [...] Continue Reading...


Bears Growl At Bonds And Energy… So Buy Both

Over the previous six years, the stock market is not the only thing that has gone up. Total U.S. debt has catapulted from roughly $10.5 trillion – give or take $100 billion – to $18.0 trillion. That’s a 70% increase in the country’s outstanding obligations since the start of 2009. Perhaps ironically, I have spent the [...] Continue Reading...


Proof Positive That U.S. Stock ETFs Are Not The Only Place To Be

Financial professionals are blaming the latest round of risk asset uncertainty on a variety of factors, from the continuing sell-off in oil to the possibility of Greece being kicked out of the euro-zone. Still others are pointing to anxiety over the U.S. Federal Reserve’s intention to raise its overnight lending rate target in mid-2015 – [...] Continue Reading...


ETFs For The Unquestioned “Wall Of Worry”

The crises of yesteryear almost seem quaint. Did investors really need to fret the possibility of the world’s 44th economy (Greece) exiting the euro-zone back in 2011? The stock market ultimately prevailed. Why did the fiscal cliff, sequestration and government shutdown concerns cause so much anxiety in 2012? U.S. stocks eventually powered ahead by roughly [...] Continue Reading...


Are Rate-Sensitive ETFs Suggesting Economic Weakness Ahead?

Lost in the bull market euphoria is the reality that economists have been dead wrong about the direction of asset prices, particularly bond prices. Last December, when 55 of the most prestigious economists across a wide range of institutions had been polled by Bloomberg about where the 10-year yield (3.0%) would end the year, each [...] Continue Reading...


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