Archive | Financial ETFs

Against the Herd: Lower Rates Rather Than Higher Rates In 2014

Bloomberg News surveyed banks and securities companies on where the 10-year Treasury yield would finish 2014. Economist forecasts averaged 3.41%. With 2013 closing near 3.01%, perceived strength in the underlying U.S. economy, and the Federal Reserve reining in its controversial bond buying program (”QE3″), the predictions are hardly outlandish. On the other hand, where in the [...] Continue Reading...


What Current Federal Reserve Policy Will Mean For Stock ETFs in 2014

Stock markets initially plummeted on the notion that the Federal Reserve would print less money, buy less government debt and stand by as interest rates soared into the stratosphere. Very quickly, however, Fed officials extinguished fears of skyrocketing borrowing costs by simultaneously announcing that its policy of zero-percent overnight lending would continue “well beyond” the [...] Continue Reading...


Regional Banking ETFs Stronger, Diversified Financial Sector ETFs Weaker

Some analysts expected the United States Federal Reserve to finally begin reducing the size of its money printing program. Others, myself included, believed that the Fed would not take action in 2013. Either way, I would be surprised if tapering one month — December, January, March — is not followed by an increase in electronic [...] Continue Reading...


ETF Investor Implications Of An Absence In Sector Rotation

Over the last month, investors have witnessed a variety of strange events. The Republican party ungracefully bowed out of its bid to derail Obamacare during the tail end of the government shutdown. The Democrat party helplessly attempted to control damage associated with scores of consumers not being able to keep their health plans or their [...] Continue Reading...


Financial ETFs, Homebuilder ETFs: Casualties of the October Jobs Report

Working-aged adults are leaving the workforce at a faster rate than those who are entering. For all the hoopla surrounding the 200,000 jobs created last month, investors paid very little attention to the 930,000 people who left the labor force in October. These are not 930,000 new retirees; most of these folks have given up [...] Continue Reading...


Sector ETF Reaction to Budget Impasse

It has been five trading days since “no-taper” euphoria has passed. In that time, U.S. stock assets have been falling, though the declines have been modest. Most investors continue to believe that a last-minute deal will be struck and that a bearish retreat like the 2011 correction is improbable. Nevertheless, different economic sectors appear to be [...] Continue Reading...


Which Income ETFs Are Handling The “Taper Time” Pressure?

On Thursday, 8/15/2013, the 10-year yield broke through the psychological barrier of 2.75%. Since May, the intermediate-term 10-year Treasury has catapulted from a year-to-date low near 1.6% to a year-to-date high of 2.8%. Clearly, the U.S. Federal Reserve is having trouble persuading investors that — absent its $85-billion-per-month bond binge — they have the tools [...] Continue Reading...


Investors Take Another Look At Stock ETFs With Above-Average Yields

Morningstar offers its paid subscribers a premium service called, “ETF Valuation Quickrank.” The company offers price-to-fair value estimates for several hundred ETFs that are based upon a proprietary analysis of the underlying stock holdings. At present, each investment is being labeled as fairly valued or overvalued; you will not a find a single fund — [...] Continue Reading...


The Sector ETFs That “Dovetail” Best With The Fed Chairman’s Thinking

Is the current chairman of the Federal Reserve a genius, a knucklehead or a mere mortal? In late May, Ben Bernanke appeared to communicate that our central bank would soon be slowing down its bond purchasing program. Rate-sensitive assets from U.S. Treasury bonds to real estate investment trusts experienced a blood-letting that hardly seemed therapeutic [...] Continue Reading...


Choose ETFs With Relative Strength As Well As Defensive Attributes

The U.S. economy’s modest growth is attributable to the real estate market, corporate debt restructuring and big ticket consumption like auto. All of these areas are extremely rate sensitive. It follows that, with the Federal Reserve “taper talking” 10-year yields higher by 100 basis points (1%), the U.S. economy should slow in the coming months. [...] Continue Reading...


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