The S&P 500 garnered as much as 5.4% in the first 3 months of 2011. What might we expect for the next quarter? Other than Jim Cramer, most would likely concede that the April-June period could be a bit tougher for U.S. stocks. “Almanac traders” would point to 100 years of data on Q2 underperformance. “Inflation fighters” would chronicle the directionality of core [...] Continue Reading...
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed more than 10% above its long-term 200-day moving average. That hasn’t happened since August of 2010, back when investors fretted the possibility of a double-dip recession. Today, the worries are more cumulative in nature. Uncertain job growth, depressed home values, debt troubles in Europe, rising commodity prices, the threat of rising rates, inflation in Asia, [...] Continue Reading...
State Street didn’t invent the concept of dividend-oriented exposure to emerging markets. The Matthews Fund family has been ultra-successful with its Matthews Asia Dividend Fund (MAPIX) for many years. What’s more, WisdomTree’s Emerging Market Equity Income ETF (DEM) tracks an emerging market dividend index and has been a mainstay since July of 2007. With that said, MAPIX focuses exclusively on [...] Continue Reading...
The media remain hell-bent on describing U.S. economic acceleration, Dow 12000 and marginal labor market improvements. The analysts seem equally giddy, reiterating quotable notables like “Don’t fight the Fed!” or “Don’t fight the tape!” I agree that there are reasons to be hopeful. We’ve been privy to robust corporate earnings as well as strong corporate balance sheets, share buybacks and [...] Continue Reading...
Some investors have been overweight emerging markets because industrializing countries account for the bulk of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP). Yet few of those investors may be aware that studies consistently show an absence of any relationship between a country’s GDP and stock performance. There are better reasons to invest in emerging countries. Most of them carry [...] Continue Reading...
Notre Dame’s Fighting Irish may have fans singing its football praises for pounding an Army squad 27-3. Yet the third weekend of November brought little cheer for Ireland itself, as the country conceded its need for a financial bailout. Meanwhile, the European Union and the world at large have been desperately trying to avoid the dreaded debt scare from spreading. The problem is… [...] Continue Reading...
“Change” is a lot like a pass interference call in American football. The penalty can drastically alter the outcome of the game, but it’s only a ”good” call if it helps your team win. In the 2008 election, independent voters decided that Barack Obama represented a change that they could believe in. Like pass interference, however, the changes appeared to penalize the country more than [...] Continue Reading...
Increasingly, investors have been asking that I put more cash to work. This includes new clients that have been sitting on the sidelines. It also includes current clients that are depositing checks from their banks into their brokerage accounts. Guarded optimism and restrained greed have returned. It’s not the kind of euphoria that… if experience serves… tends [...] Continue Reading...
Financial journalists, bloggers and wannabes have chimed in on the stock market implications of the Republican landslide. Unfortunately, many writers offered up ETF picks that arrived a little late to the idea table. For instance, with the Republicans taking over the U.S. House of Representatives, many are now touting oil-related investments. I don’t disagree. After all, the energy sector isn’t threatened by cap-n-trade [...] Continue Reading...
The last 30 days capped a U.S. rally that hasn’t been seen in 70 years. Yet investment managers had a larger hankering for emerging market country ETFs in the final week of September… a sign that “window dressing” is very much alive. During the last 3-5 days of a given month, investment professionals often adjust portfolio holdings so that asset management clients [...] Continue Reading...
