Citigroup’s Tom Fitzpatrick asserted that the U.S. market is emulating the pattern of a 1970s-style bear. The company’s chief technical analyst suggested that stocks would likely fall 20% or more on economic factors like sky-rocketing oil, declining economic activity, rising unemployment and a collapse in housing.
There are quite a few problems with Mr. Fitzpatrick’s assertion. Unemployment is woefully high due to a [...] Continue Reading...
There are times when the U.S. dollar tells investors all they need to know… at least in the short term. For example, the fact that the PowerShares DB US$ Dollar Bullish Fund (UUP) gained ground for 9 consecutive days is an expression of serious doubt in Europe’s finances as well as its leadership. Indeed, the almighty buck [...] Continue Reading...
Until recently, investors showed little interest in hedging against a potential collapse in the S&P 500. Some might have even described the environment as complacent with the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) spending most of the year in the “mid-teens.”
Now the VIX is back above 20. At that level, options participants anticipate an “annualized” change of 20% over [...] Continue Reading...
Foreign stocks returned to their winning ways in the first 10 weeks of 2012. By mid-March, however, economic data out of China started to demonstrate sluggishness. A rapid rise in Spanish bond yields began threatening the country’s ability to manage its own finances. And European interbank lending ground to a halt.
Nevertheless, as recently as Tuesday (May 1), many commentators [...] Continue Reading...
On Tuesday, 5/1/2012, CNBC trumpeted the Dow’s highest close since December of 2007. On Wednesday, the media giant celebrated the price-weighted index’s ability to shrug off weaker-than-anticipated employment data in the United States.
There are reasons to be pleased with the progress of U.S. stocks in 2012. My clients continue to benefit from exposure to risk assets like Vanguard High [...] Continue Reading...
Last year, world equity markets obsessed over the movement of sovereign debt yields in Portugal and Greece. Here in 2012, Spanish and Italian bond yields have risen enough to scare investors back into the perceived safety of U.S. treasuries. In fact, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund (IEF) is near 52-week highs.
Unfortunately, concerns about the 3rd and 4th [...] Continue Reading...
It’s a funny thing managing money for families, small businesses and high net worth individuals. One minute, you can be helping them overcome the terror of a 5% portfolio pullback in a world that appears bent on self-destruction. (”OMG… Greece is going to default…war is going to erupt in the Middle East!”) The next minute, you [...] Continue Reading...
Renewed fears over Thursday’s deadline for Greece’s debt swap with private bondholders served as the excuse. The truth is… the price of the S&P 500 had lived more than one standard deviation above a 50-day moving average since the last trading day of 2011; stocks were nearly certain to pull back.
And it’s not like warning lights [...] Continue Reading...
There are many times when it makes sense to choose an unconventional investing path. For example, last year, scores of prominent voices insisted that interest rates would rise. “Bond King” Bill Gross denounced U.S. government debt. Heck, S&P even downgraded it. And yet, investors who gobbled up U.S. Treasury bonds benefited from the “contrary-to-public-opinion” upside.
The reasons for the unanticipated direction of yields are well-documented (e.g., expansion of the [...] Continue Reading...
There’s been a great deal of discussion about the NASDAQ’s ability to log an 11-year high this past week. What hasn’t been mentioned, however, is that the tech-heavy composite remains 42.5% below its 12-year high. In fact, the composite would need to pole vault 74% from the current 11-year peak to recover the losses incurred from the bursting of [...] Continue Reading...
