In truth, I originally anticipated that we’d see some “sell-the-news” profit-taking in late January… somewhere in the midst of the corporate earnings barrage. I did not think that I’d be cautioning on the bull market’s near-term viability here in late December. Why am I concerned about stock assets in the immediate-term? Did the recent rate hike by China give me pause to reflect, [...] Continue Reading...
The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq offer 3 different ways to look at the U.S. market’s health. Even with the monumental start to December trading, however, none of the broad market indexes are hitting new 52-week peaks. (Not yet, anyway.) It’s not like certain sectors haven’t been pulling their weight. SPDR Select Energy (XLE) and SPDR Select Consumer Discretionary (XLY) have [...] Continue Reading...
Is it just me, or has the permanently glum Nouriel Roubini become a “softy?” The good professor has received more accolades than any other analyst or economist for predicting the demise of market-based securities in 2008. Never-mind the horrific calls he made the following year: 1. In April 2009, near Dow 7950, Roubini predicted the markets would [...] Continue Reading...
When the Beatles sang, “Can’t Buy Me Love,” who would have thought that the chorus might some day apply to U.S. stimulus spending. Indeed, the $862 billion hasn’t purchased much in the way of love for new employees. And as it currently stands, longer-term economic growth hinges on love for human resources. Consider an example that involves actual dollars. As part [...] Continue Reading...
The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) conducts a popular bull-bear survey. The most recent results? Only 1/5 of respondents expect stocks to rise over the next 6 months. When’s the last time that the AAII survey only found 20% bullishness among its participants? Just 4 days before the March 9, 2009 bottom for the U.S. market. It’s a [...] Continue Reading...
Permabears will probably point to Thursday’s volatile stock sell-off as proof of a double-dip recession. They’ll also suggest that the market’s action is indicative of a major decline ahead. The problem that I have with ”get-me-noticed” predictions of devastation is the permanency of the position. For instance, when stocks move higher, permabears explain that it is either a [...] Continue Reading...
What if determining stock market direction was as simple as wetting your finger in the outdoors and holding it up to the sky? A cool breeze telling you if the wind was coming out of the northwest? Not surprisingly, it has never been quite that easy. While we have trendlines that we base on moving averages — 50-day, 100-day, 200-day [...] Continue Reading...
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Report could not have been more dismal. The gauge fell to its lowest level of confidence since the 2009 start of the Obama Administration. The news weighed heavily on stocks, pushing the S&P 500 back into solid correction territory… roughly 12.5% off its April high. And yet, consumers and investors are as frightened [...] Continue Reading...
There may be more than 1000 ETFs worth $850 billion in assets. However, when you remove leveraged “long”/”short” investments, and when you discard those with limited assets under management (i.e., less than $100 million), you pare that list down to 380 ETFs. Most of the themes for 2010 are readily recognizable in this ETF roll call. Current [...] Continue Reading...
The S&P 500 is more than 15% off its April peak. In fact, nearly all sector and industry investments have fallen more than a corrective 10% from the top. Yet there may be another approach for assessing the damage. For example, the S&P 500 index itself hasn’t been at this price level since October of 2009… more than eight months [...] Continue Reading...
