Archive | Large Cap ETFs

Tactical Asset Allocation Changes? Track the Exchange’s A/D Line

I listen to sports talk radio in the morning for entertainment. Today, a popular broadcaster went off script to chat about the ridiculous nature of political correctness, surmising that Americans obsess over social issues when they have few concerns about the economy. He went so far as to describe the economic environment as exceptional, after [...] Continue Reading...


China’s ‘Slowdown’ May Be Your Opportunity To Buy Low

Chinese leaders already anticipate that the country’s economic expansion in 2015 will be its slowest in 25 years. The gross domestic product (GDP) projection? 7%. Analysts have ridiculed everything about the world’s 2nd largest economy from the nation’s extraordinary debt build-up to the modern-day ghost towns of empty apartment complexes. Ironically, these same critics barely [...] Continue Reading...


An Energy ETF Resurgence Defies The Naysayers

Maybe you do not know who Rex Tillerson is. Maybe you did not realize that Tillerson, a dinosaur in the energy sector, is the chairman and CEO of Exxon Mobil (XOM) – one of the largest corporations on the planet. The company that he runs had been the largest in the world by market capitalization [...] Continue Reading...


Paper Wealth In Your Accounts Is Great, But Only If You Know How To Protect It

One of the more challenging tasks in high finance is making the distinction between “paper wealth” and economic health. Are the two related? Sure. Are they positively correlated. Sometimes, particularly on the downside. Does one matter more than the other? That depends upon who you are. Too frequently, writers will talk about paper wealth like [...] Continue Reading...


50% Recession Possibility Calls For A ‘Higher-Than-Usual’ Allocation To Non-Stock ETFs

Other than permanently bearish writers and investors, few address the possibility of the U.S. falling into a recession. Many conclude that the Federal Reserve’s ultra-low rate policy completely altered the landscape such that the idea of a business cycle no longer exists. Others merely ignore warning signs until, unfortunately for them, the opportunity to reduce [...] Continue Reading...


Three Implications Of “Shifts” In Fed Policy

A large number of stocks in the Dow Jones Industrials Average have moved lower since theĀ Federal Reserve ended its quantitative easing (QE) program in late October. Telecom giants AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) have toiled. Consumer champs Procter & Gamble (PG) and Coca-Cola (KO) have struggled. Commodity-related kings like Chevron (CVX) and Caterpillar (CAT)? They’ve [...] Continue Reading...


ETF Risk Management In The Face Of A Surging U.S. Dollar

Historically, when the U.S. dollar surges, forward S&P 500 earnings plummet. In the same vein, the last two times that the world’s reserve currency skyrocketed, theĀ U.S. economy slipped into a recession. Come on, Gary. Do you really think that we have already dipped into recession territory? No, I do not. Yet the idea that the [...] Continue Reading...


Everything Is Awesome? Time To Rethink Your ETF Asset Mix

Less than three months ago, analysts everywhere argued a case for economic acceleration. It was almost as if financial authorities big and small had held a convention at LEGOLAND in California to declare that, “Everything Is Awesome.” Everything is not awesome. Jobless claims hit 10-month highs, factory orders have dropped for six consecutive months, consumer [...] Continue Reading...


What the NASDAQ’s Round-Trip To 5000 Really Means

When the NASDAQ Composite Index hit 5000 in March of 2000, jubilant investors celebrated the milestone. Shortly thereafter, however, scores of individuals lost their collective shirts. Many witnessed losses of 50%, 60% or 80% of their account values on names like Cisco, JDS Uniphase and Pets.com. Back then, the euphoria was akin to unchecked greed. [...] Continue Reading...


Scarcity and Stocks: How to Follow (Or Avoid) A Late ’90s “New Economy” Playbook

For the better part of 15 months, I have pounded the table for longer-term U.S. treasuries. Most financial pundits thought that I was nuts in December of 2013; they debated my scarcity premise throughout 2014 and they dismiss my relative value argument here in 2015. About the only concession? The talking heads have often acknowledged [...] Continue Reading...


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