The Economist polls a wide variety of economic forecasters to come up with consensus readings on inflation (consumer prices) and GDP growth. Similarly, Bloomberg has sought median forecasts on year-end changes on world currencies. Here’s a quick summation on what the business journalists found: 1. Nearly all consumers in the developed world will see rising prices (a.k.a. inflation), though [...] Continue Reading...
Legitimate criticism of leveraged ETFs is rapidly fading from the blogosphere. In fact, a number of my peers serve up “champagne-and-caviar-like” praise for Leveraged ETFs. There may be a reason for that… and that reason may be a direct or indirect advertising/financial arrangement. In fact, one wonders why there isn’t a warning label with, “Caution: Commentators receive compensation from Leveraged ETF provider.” There’s nothing [...] Continue Reading...
The Senate recently voted in favor of a health reform bill. Is this good or bad for medical insurers? November new home sales were no better than they were in April. Does that spell doom for homebuilders or serve up new opportunity? Congress raised the deficit debt ceiling to $12.4 trillion. Can the U.S. dollar really handle [...] Continue Reading...
At the end of September, the U.S. economy (GDP) grew at an unexpectedly fast clip of 3.5%. Yet this did little to push U.S. treasury yields higher. At the end of October, the Fed unceremoniously completed its $300 billion purchase of U.S. treasury bonds. In spite of the cessation in buying U.S. government debt, treasury yields remained flat. They [...] Continue Reading...
Remember the day when an exchange-traded fund was as easy to grasp as the sunshine is bright? No longer! On Monday, 11/16/09, iShares launched the Diversified Alternatives Trust (ALT). Its stated objective? Well… that’s too long for a gifted speaker to say aloud on a single breath of air. (Go ahead… try it for yourself!) “The objective of the Trust is to maximize absolute [...] Continue Reading...
The worldwide solution to fight deflation is/was government stimulus spending and coordinated rate decreases. Some world powers spent more than others and some spent less intelligently than others. In addition, different central banks cut rates more drastically than their counterparts. Regardless of political camp or economic orientation, there’s near unanimity that the dramatic efforts by the U.S. government are responsible for significant deterioration in the value [...] Continue Reading...
I usually enjoy articles by John Spence at CBS Marketwatch. And for that matter, Mr. Spence did a fine job representing Morningstar’s John Gabriel on the potential positives for the iShares DJ Broker Dealer Index Fund (IAI). Nevertheless, I’d like to offer an opposing viewpoint on the “high risk, high reward” stamp of approval. Analyst Gabriel is quoted as describing the [...] Continue Reading...
A 3-day bout of selling pressure? How far back do we need to look to find that short-term trend? Did 9/23 usher in the start of the correction? There are plenty of reasons for the sudden change in sentiment, even as U.S. consumer sentiment hit its highest levels since January of 2008; that is, we’ve got [...] Continue Reading...
Early Friday morning, 8/21/09, U.S. stocks hit intra-day 10 1/2 month highs. It took little more than a headline… “Existing Home Sales Fastest In 2 Years.” On the one hand, it appears the “quantitative easing” efforts by the Federal Reserve are working swimmingly. The Fed’s buying long-term treasuries. Interest rates on mortgages remain near historic lows. And foreclosure hunters, as well [...] Continue Reading...
Trade-ability is one of the premier features of exchange-traded funds. Yet studies on how investors choose to exercise the right to buy-n-sell, rather than buy-n-hold, are only now coming to light. Yan Zilbering and Donald Bennyhoff of the Vanguard Group recently came up with several intriguing observations on the trading of ETFs. Yet their conclusions focused on some of the [...] Continue Reading...
