Jason Geopfert of SentimenTrader.com recently explained that a three-month view of the S&P 500’s upside persistence (closing near a daily high) has reached an extreme seen in 4 other instances over the last decade. On each of those occasions, the market hammered risk assets with a significant pullback. In the last 30 years, the only [...] Continue Reading...
Extraordinary rallies off bear market bottoms are typical. Bullish run-ups in March of 2003 as well as March of 2009 registered enviable unrealized gains of 35% and 65% respectively; each advance experienced little resistance for roughly 9-10 months. Powerful moves off minor corrections are less typical, if not downright suspicious. Investors in the S&P 500 SPDR [...] Continue Reading...
The relative strength of the primary U.S. benchmarks — the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 — distorts the true picture for risk assets today. In fact, we do not even need to look closely to see the cracks all along the wall. For example, the most important metal to the world’s economy appears destined for [...] Continue Reading...
For the first time in 2013, investors do not appear to be tripping over themselves to buy every fractional percentage dip. Here on 4/15, the media have blamed the accelerated selling on commodity price depreciation and a disappointing GDP reading (7.7%) out of China. So we’re supposed to believe that a manic Monday where the domestic [...] Continue Reading...
Over the course of the 4-year bull market, I’ve kept an eye on the percentage of S&P 100 stocks that reside above a long-term 200-day trendline. Market pressures always seemed to develop when the level approached 86%-90%. Similarly, when the 50-day moving average for the S&P 100 reached 85%, you could pretty much count on [...] Continue Reading...
Prior to the 2007-2009 financial meltdown in the U.S., risk-takers thoroughly embraced the idea that emerging markets would regularly trounce the developed economies. At times, this simply meant that emerging market stocks would outperform on the upside. At other times, this referred to the ability of “emergers” to hold on to gains… even if U.S. [...] Continue Reading...
Daily sentiment can change on a “Susan B. Anthony.” For instance, in the time that Prime Minister Mario Monti has held the reins of control in Italy, global markets have felt better about the prospect of the European Union holding itself together. At the start of Monday’s trading, in fact, stock assets around the world [...] Continue Reading...
U.S. stocks (S&P 500) have packed on Olympic-sized gains through the initial eight weeks of 2013. Fed policy uncertainty aside, 6%-plus capital appreciation on low volatility is impressive by any measure. The bulk of the run-up is attributable to industries tied to economic growth and enhancement. Sector ETFs that represent financials, industrials, technology and energy have [...] Continue Reading...
What are the alternatives for an investor when a large majority of assets are fundamentally overvalued and technically overbought? One can wait to participate, of course. Even if there are no obvious reasons for sellers to enter the marketplace, they always do. On the other hand, stock fund managers are being flooded with cash that they [...] Continue Reading...
There are scores of erroneous beliefs that mislead the investing public. However, few are as dangerous to one’s portfolio as the notion that economic growth correlates to stock market performance. Consider the inglorious ride for Chinese equities via SPDR S&P China (GXC). In 2010, China’s GDP growth rate topped 10%, while GXC managed a modest total [...] Continue Reading...
