Archive | Natural Resources ETFs

What Is The Most Opportunistic Asset Class Right Now?

Are the new all-time highs in U.S. large cap stocks as big a deal as the media would have you believe? On a year-over-year basis, other asset classes have been more impressive. Bonds via Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND), gold via SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and the “risk-off” Japanese yen via Currency Shares Yen Trust [...] Continue Reading...


ETF Relationships That May Tell You When The Worst Is Over

Businesses, consumers and the federal government have taken on enormous amounts of debt since the Great Recession. Optimists argue that total debt is irrelevant; that is, they believe the only thing that matters is the cost of servicing those debts. Fair enough. Then what happens when interest expense does rise? Assuming total debt remains the [...] Continue Reading...


A Stock Market Breather Before a Big-Time Bullish Breakout? Not Bloody Likely

It is unsettling to deal with the probability that we are closer to a bearish decline in stocks than a bullish reboot. Investment account values will wane. Household net worth will diminish. And when stock prices near their lowest ebb, the typical investor will decide that buying is impractical. However, if one prepares for inevitable [...] Continue Reading...


Risk Asset Update: Vast Majority Agonize Since The S&P 500’s August Lows

Weren’t lower oil prices supposed to act like a “tax cut” for U.S. households? If families spend less at the gas pump, then they will spend more of their dollars at the mall. At least that’s what mainstream media cheerleaders like CNBC’s Jim Cramer have insisted throughout the year. In contrast, the S&P SPDR Retail [...] Continue Reading...


Why The U.S. Stock Market Never Completely Recovered

Some things go unnoticed. For example, the S&P 500 rallied 13% off its closing lows (1867) set in late August. Lost in the shuffle? The popular benchmark has yet to revisit its closing highs (2130) registered back in May. In essence, the corrective activity that began in the springtime as a function of a faltering [...] Continue Reading...


All About Nothing: Stock ETFs Celebrate Zero Percent Rate Policy

About a year ago, I was meeting a client at a restaurant in Marina Del Rey, California. The traffic had been mild by Los Angeles County standards, so I arrived in the area early. I stopped in a local coffee shop and sat down in a booth. Lo and behold, in the booth next to [...] Continue Reading...


Is A Recession Necessary For The S&P 500 To Fall 20% From All-Time Highs?

Is it possible for a bear market to occur when the U.S. economy is expanding? Certainly. In fact, most bear markets are already well on their way to becoming 20% price declines long before a recession is formerly identified. Consider the most recent bearish retreat (10/07 – 3/09). The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) [...] Continue Reading...


A Market Top? 15 Warning Signs

Stocks are tumbling in Russia, Brazil, Chile, South Africa, Australia and Canada due to economic weakness in China. Meanwhile, the Vanguard Europe ETF (VGK) remains roughly 5.5% off of its May high, as the feel-good effect of $1.3 trillion in European Central Bank stimulus subsides. In truth, risk assets from across the spectrum are fading. Exchange-traded [...] Continue Reading...


3 Reasons Why Risk Is Exiting The Debate Stage

More than a handful of people asked me if I would be watching the big debate. 10 candidates. One stage. Which politician will emerge as the clear-cut favorite to win the Republican party nomination? It may surprise some folks, but I have zero interest in the made-for-television event. Each individual will receive about as much air [...] Continue Reading...


Rate-Sensitive, Energy-Sensitive Sectors Now Down 10%-Plus

Bullish borrowers have increased their margin debt to invest in stocks from $445 billion in January to $507 billion today. And why not? The overall price movement for growth sectors of the stock market remains healthy. Flashy sub-segments like cyber-security and biotech continue to soar. For example, I allocated a small portion of moderately aggressive [...] Continue Reading...


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