Archive | Short ETFs

The Great Recalibration: The Appearance Of Risk Aversion In Credit Spreads And Equity ETFs

Investors have seen a great deal of volatility in U.S. treasuries over the past six months. Early in the year, the combination of recessionary data stateside as well as quantitative easing (QE) measures in Europe helped propel demand for U.S. sovereign debt. Then came the massive unwind, alongside Fed hints at upcoming rate hikes; treasury [...] Continue Reading...


50% Recession Possibility Calls For A ‘Higher-Than-Usual’ Allocation To Non-Stock ETFs

Other than permanently bearish writers and investors, few address the possibility of the U.S. falling into a recession. Many conclude that the Federal Reserve’s ultra-low rate policy completely altered the landscape such that the idea of a business cycle no longer exists. Others merely ignore warning signs until, unfortunately for them, the opportunity to reduce [...] Continue Reading...


Technical Breakouts For Popular ETFs On The World Stage

The current bull market for U.S. stocks is the fourth longest in history. Two others journeyed into a seventh year, while one other (1990s) enjoys the distinction as having traveled into an eighth year. Even if one subscribes to the idea that “bull markets never die of old age,” probability alone suggests that we are [...] Continue Reading...


Why “TBT” Doesn’t Have A Prayer

When Jack Nicholson won his third Best Actor award in 1997’s “As Good As It Gets,” he may have chuckled at the knowledge that he’d never have it so good again. Who wins four Academy Awards for Best Actor in a motion picture? Nobody. (Yes, I checked… and Katherine Hepburn won four Oscars for Best [...] Continue Reading...


3 ETF Investing Themes For A Wobbly U.S. Bull

Presumably, the Great Recession ended in June of 2009. Three months earlier on March 9, the stock market anticipated the modest recovery that is still intact. In essence, stocks began to rally well in advance of the actual turnaround in the U.S. economy. Similarly, the 10/09/2002-10/09/2007 bull market ended roughly three months before the start [...] Continue Reading...


Europe’s QE Experiment: Adding Stock ETF Exposure And Hedging Against The Unforeseen

The scope (current euro-zone member nations) and size ($1.1 trillion euros) of the European Central Bank’s latest stimulus effort has delighted the worldwide investing community. In fact, many began betting on a monumental quantitative easing “project” the minute that Europe registered year-over-year deflation of -0.2% for the month of December. This can be seen in [...] Continue Reading...


How Long Before “They’re Raising Rates” To “They’re Considering QE4?”

The media are telling us that U.S. stocks have been under pressure this January due to global growth fears and an accompanying rout across the entire commodity space. Yet that only tells a small part of the story. After all, the S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY) has performed quite admirably over the past three years, [...] Continue Reading...


Are The Media Exaggerating The Bull Market?

Notorious bears like Peter Schiff and John Hussman have been warning about the bull market’s inevitable demise for many years. Ignoring their gloom-n-doom predictions has been the better way to go. After all, six years of zero percent interest rate policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve successfully reflated portfolios heavily tilted toward U.S. equities. On [...] Continue Reading...


Are Stocks Really The Only Game In Town?

Contrarians must be thinking about the sustainability of the year-end stock rally after six weeks of remarkable gains. The most recent AAII Investor Sentiment Survey discovered that a whopping 52 percent of respondents were bullish, far surpassing the long-term trend of 39 percent. Meanwhile, nearly $43 billion of inflows poured into U.S. equity ETFs in [...] Continue Reading...


Stick With Stock ETFs, But Consider A Multi-Asset Hedge

According to updated GDP reports, the U.S. economy grew at its fastest back-to-back quarterly rate since 2003. Yet few would attribute the U.S. dollar’s surge against competing currencies to the upbeat news. Rather, the dollar’s ascent is mostly a function of declining economies in Europe and Asia. Even the most ardent optimists realize that the [...] Continue Reading...


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