On Tuesday, 5/1/2012, CNBC trumpeted the Dow’s highest close since December of 2007. On Wednesday, the media giant celebrated the price-weighted index’s ability to shrug off weaker-than-anticipated employment data in the United States. There are reasons to be pleased with the progress of U.S. stocks in 2012. My clients continue to benefit from exposure to risk assets like Vanguard High [...] Continue Reading...
Doug Kass, prominent helmsman at Seabreeze Partners and frequent commentator at CNBC, embraces social media. In fact, Mr. Kass tweets roughly 8-10 times throughout the day. Yesterday (4/30), Mr. Kass tweeted that his largest investment was short bonds, and he listed Inverse Bond ETFs like ProShares UltraShort 20+ Treasury (TBT) and ProShares Short 20+ Treasury (TBF). This morning (5/1), [...] Continue Reading...
Last year, world equity markets obsessed over the movement of sovereign debt yields in Portugal and Greece. Here in 2012, Spanish and Italian bond yields have risen enough to scare investors back into the perceived safety of U.S. treasuries. In fact, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund (IEF) is near 52-week highs. Unfortunately, concerns about the 3rd and 4th [...] Continue Reading...
It’s a funny thing managing money for families, small businesses and high net worth individuals. One minute, you can be helping them overcome the terror of a 5% portfolio pullback in a world that appears bent on self-destruction. (”OMG… Greece is going to default…war is going to erupt in the Middle East!”) The next minute, you [...] Continue Reading...
There are many times when it makes sense to choose an unconventional investing path. For example, last year, scores of prominent voices insisted that interest rates would rise. “Bond King” Bill Gross denounced U.S. government debt. Heck, S&P even downgraded it. And yet, investors who gobbled up U.S. Treasury bonds benefited from the “contrary-to-public-opinion” upside. The reasons for the unanticipated direction of yields are well-documented (e.g., expansion of the [...] Continue Reading...
If you watch violent television shows, are you more likely to kill somebody? Or, are those who have a predisposition towards violence more likely to view blood, guts and gore? (Watching the stock ticker on Thursday, September 22, was about as gory as it gets!) Too often, the mainstream media endeavor to attribute a rationale for the irrational. For instance, every participant [...] Continue Reading...
Hurry! Hurry! Place your bets on the chances of another recession — 25%, 33%, 50%, 66%, 100%! How gloomy are some folks? Perma-bear David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff & Associates believes that a recession is a near certainty (99%), citing the weakness of the consumer and the double-dip in housing. Meanwhile, John Hussman, long-short billion dollar fund manager, expresses 100% certainty in [...] Continue Reading...
U.S. bond yields keep moving lower. Gold prices keep moving higher. Even the 3-month LIBOR rate is climbing, now up to 0.30% from 0.25%. These aren’t signs that fear has abated. On the contrary! It seems that the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis is very much alive. And yet, the media are almost giddy. Not only are they highlighting the recovery of losses since [...] Continue Reading...
Every once in a while, I receive an e-message that makes me chuckle. Here’s one that caused me to snort Tejava tea out of my nose. “What’s a HOLDR? It sounds less like an investment and more like the messed-up character from The Catcher In The Rye.” In truth, the inquirer could readily unlock a suitable answer with a Google search. On the other [...] Continue Reading...
I want to believe that I am still a capable basketball player. I am 6′ 2″ with an ample frame. I’ve got a fair amount of skill with my left hand. And I genuinely enjoy the half-court offense. (Translation: I’m “bulky,” left-handed and I don’t particularly like to run.) The reality may be even more dismal. [...] Continue Reading...
