Archive | Special Sectors ETFs

Is It Over? 3 ETF Signals You May Use For Confirmation

Is the global economic landscape healing? Far from it. Does that typically signal good things for the U.S. stock market? No… but the U.S. Federal Reserve is extremely likely to keep overnight lending rates near zero for years to come. That discourages saving, yet encourages borrowing for the purposes of consumption and investment. Zero percent [...] Continue Reading...


Are All ETF Correlations Barreling Towards 1.0?

Since the S&P 500 hit 2011 on September 18, it has forfeited 4.1%. That may not represent a significant decline. Yet, the year-to-date damage across an array of 18 popular asset classes is a bit more vexing. Depreciation Across 18 Unique Asset Classes % Off 2014 High 200 Day MA Vanguard Total International Bond (BNDX) 0.0% Above Vanguard [...] Continue Reading...


The Barbell Approach To ETF Portfolio Allocation Continues To Shine

I did not invent the barbell strategy. At the start of the year, I simply offered readers a glimpse into the way that I would be managing ETF assets in the late-stage bull market. First, let me take you back to January when I explained that long-term rates would fall, not rise. The contrarian call had [...] Continue Reading...


Is The S&P 500 Now Safer Than A Diversified Portfolio?

Both the media and a wide array of financial advisers preach owning a diversified portfolio. Below, I have created a hypothetical asset mix that a moderate growth investor might employ: 30% iShares S&P 500 (IVV) 25% Vanguard Total Bond (BND) 12.5% iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA) 7.5% SPDR S&P Mid-Cap 400 (MDY) 5% SPDR High Yield (JNK) 5% Vanguard Short-Term Bond (BSV) 5% [...] Continue Reading...


What The Daily 1% Price Swings Mean For ETF Investors

In the first half of the U.S. stock market bull (i.e., 2009-2011), 10%-19% corrections occurred annually. That has not been the case in the second half of the bull market. Instead, the frequency as well as the duration of setbacks lessened. There were several 7% sell-offs in 2012, a couple of 5% pullbacks in 2013 [...] Continue Reading...


When Canaries Stop Singing, Riskier ETFs Can Croak

In a recent article at WSJ.com, the author interviews Michael Hartnett, a primary investment guru at Merrill Lynch. The top strategist explains that commodities, emerging markets, high-yield bonds and small-cap U.S. stocks are the “four classic canaries” in the investment mines. Moreover, he warns, the archetypal canaries have stopped singing. Yet Hartnett simply views the absence [...] Continue Reading...


Preparing Your ETF Portfolio For Increased Volatility

HSBC’s most recent Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the Chinese economy rose to 50.5 from a final reading of 50.2 in August. The manufacturing sector may be expanding, but the growth is noticeably restrained. Meanwhile, German factories registered their slowest growth in 15 months and the French manufacturing segment continues to shrink. Equally disconcerting, the [...] Continue Reading...


Bond ETFs: Selling the Rumor, Buying The News

The appetite for stock risk is softening, yet few people are talking about it. Take a look at the “Advance-Decline Line” – one of the more popular technical analysis tools for identifying potential trend reversals. It dropped below a short-term moving average (50 SMA) in early August; it is now below the key trendline in [...] Continue Reading...


Currency Hedged Stock ETFs Can Protect A Diversified Portfolio

The U.S. economy has been growing at an annualized pace of roughly 2% since the current expansion began in June of 2009. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first half of 2014 hovered around a paltry 1%. And while many contend that 2nd quarter growth at approximately 4% is signaling better times ahead, members of [...] Continue Reading...


How ETF Investors Can Prepare For A 10% Correction

What is the longest period of time that the S&P 500 has traded without a 10% correction? According to Bespoke Investment Group, the record is a blissful 1,127-day run from July 1984 to August 1987. The current rally? 1,069 days. The waters are so calm, in fact, that only 13.3% of respondents to the most [...] Continue Reading...


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