Archive | Special Sectors ETFs

A Stock Market Breather Before a Big-Time Bullish Breakout? Not Bloody Likely

It is unsettling to deal with the probability that we are closer to a bearish decline in stocks than a bullish reboot. Investment account values will wane. Household net worth will diminish. And when stock prices near their lowest ebb, the typical investor will decide that buying is impractical. However, if one prepares for inevitable [...] Continue Reading...


Risk Asset Update: Vast Majority Agonize Since The S&P 500’s August Lows

Weren’t lower oil prices supposed to act like a “tax cut” for U.S. households? If families spend less at the gas pump, then they will spend more of their dollars at the mall. At least that’s what mainstream media cheerleaders like CNBC’s Jim Cramer have insisted throughout the year. In contrast, the S&P SPDR Retail [...] Continue Reading...


5 Must-See Economic Charts Show Why Stocks May Stumble In 2016

Everyone has a guilty pleasure or three. Mine? I am addicted to Seth MacFarlane’s “Family Guy.” I cannot get enough of outrageously random references on everything from a pizza place’s version of a salad to writers plying their trade at Starbucks. Underneath it all are characters whose comments are outlandish and whose behaviors are impetuous [...] Continue Reading...


What Assets Should You Have In Your Moderate Portfolio?

Ibbotson Associates provides asset allocation guidelines that span the risk spectrum from conservative to aggressive. The moderate portfolio consists of roughly 42% in U.S. Stock, 18% in Non-U.S. Stock, 35% Fixed Income and 5% in Cash. It follows that investors interested in the static Ibbotson model might employ the following ETFs to achieve the model’s [...] Continue Reading...


Flatter Yield Curve, Narrow Stock Leadership Forewarn Extreme Risk Takers

How confident should diversified investors be that U.S. stocks can power ahead without the extraordinary stimulus of quantitative easing (QE) and zero percent interest rate policy (ZIRP)? Not too confident. Stocks that trade on the New York Stock Exchange are down roughly 7.0% from their May highs and down nearly 3.5% since the last QE [...] Continue Reading...


Are The Tailwinds For Stocks Turning Into Tornadoes?

Recently, I was speaking with one of the co-founders of the popular exchange-traded fund web site, ETF Database. He wanted to get my thoughts about the problems with “buy-n-hold.” I did not hesitate to give him an earful. Rather than chronicle my conversation in its entirety, or reiterate my commentary from dozens of previous articles [...] Continue Reading...


Asset Class Update: Is Diversification Still A Free Lunch?

According to Barry Ritholtz of Ritholtz Wealth Management, a frequent contributor to CNBC as well as Bloomberg, “the beauty of diversification is that it’s about as close as you can get to a free lunch in investing.” Since 2011, however, investors who diversified in stocks outside of the U.S. and who diversified across other asset [...] Continue Reading...


Why The U.S. Stock Market Never Completely Recovered

Some things go unnoticed. For example, the S&P 500 rallied 13% off its closing lows (1867) set in late August. Lost in the shuffle? The popular benchmark has yet to revisit its closing highs (2130) registered back in May. In essence, the corrective activity that began in the springtime as a function of a faltering [...] Continue Reading...


The Pace Of Fed Tightening And The Next Stock Bear

There have been seven bear markets over the last 43 years. The Federal Reserve has played a part in most, if not all, of those bear markets. Before looking at the bear markets themselves, let’s look at the impact of Fed policy on the 10-year Treasury Note. During the inflation-wracked 1970s, the central bank of [...] Continue Reading...


Financial Markets Have Not Been Handing Out Participation Trophies

I watch more football than I should. It may have something to do with the ability to see any game or any highlight on DirecTV in real time. Or perhaps there are few parenting responsibilities with my 19-year old daughter attending college 60 miles south of our Orange County home. Or maybe it’s a semi-conscious [...] Continue Reading...


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