Is the American consumer genuinely spending? While the combination of rising home prices and higher 401k values may contribute to a temporary wealth effect, higher payroll taxes may begin to exact a toll. Consider the curious case of SPDR Retail (XRT). Its year-to-date 16.2% haul is better than most large and mid-cap benchmarks. Equally impressive, XRT [...] Continue Reading...
After the market closes on Tuesday, April 23, the world will turn its attention to the previously untarnished Apple (APPL). Its epic downward spiral from $700 per share to a sub-$400 price is largely responsible for the relative under-performance of Technology ETFs. Below, the Vanguard Information Technology (VGT):S&P 500 price ratio demonstrates the trend. Over the [...] Continue Reading...
For the first time in 2013, investors do not appear to be tripping over themselves to buy every fractional percentage dip. Here on 4/15, the media have blamed the accelerated selling on commodity price depreciation and a disappointing GDP reading (7.7%) out of China. So we’re supposed to believe that a manic Monday where the domestic [...] Continue Reading...
Here in the first week of April of 2013, an overwhelming number of folks believe one truth to be unassailable. For worse or for better, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s unconventional interest rate easing has pushed dollars into riskier assets, including higher-yielding debt, equities and real estate. Beyond crediting the Fed with a modern-day “wealth effect,” however, [...] Continue Reading...
Over the course of the 4-year bull market, I’ve kept an eye on the percentage of S&P 100 stocks that reside above a long-term 200-day trendline. Market pressures always seemed to develop when the level approached 86%-90%. Similarly, when the 50-day moving average for the S&P 100 reached 85%, you could pretty much count on [...] Continue Reading...
What exactly makes an exchange-traded fund in a given economic segment “cheap?” I am beginning to think that the concept is as arbitrary and as disobliging as the automatic spending cuts in Washington D.C. For example, Russ Koesterich is the Chief Investment Strategist for Blackrock. I genuinely enjoy reading his perspectives on “everything iShares.” Indeed, every [...] Continue Reading...
Prior to the 2007-2009 financial meltdown in the U.S., risk-takers thoroughly embraced the idea that emerging markets would regularly trounce the developed economies. At times, this simply meant that emerging market stocks would outperform on the upside. At other times, this referred to the ability of “emergers” to hold on to gains… even if U.S. [...] Continue Reading...
U.S. stocks (S&P 500) have packed on Olympic-sized gains through the initial eight weeks of 2013. Fed policy uncertainty aside, 6%-plus capital appreciation on low volatility is impressive by any measure. The bulk of the run-up is attributable to industries tied to economic growth and enhancement. Sector ETFs that represent financials, industrials, technology and energy have [...] Continue Reading...
The S&P 500 has not merely been resilient in its six consecutive weeks of gains. The celebrated U.S. stock benchmark has been unstoppable in its 8.3% unrealized run-up. Granted, nearly everyone expects a period of mild selling activity (a.k.a. “a breather”). Indeed, history certainly suggests that unbridled enthusiasm usually gets a reality check or three. The [...] Continue Reading...
Investing in stock assets when the S&P 500 is hitting fresh highs can be as dangerous as driving on a yet-to-be-plowed stretch of highway. You may get to your destination without a hitch. Then again, you might spin out of control and crash. At present, both the Eurozone’s ongoing recession and “Snowmageddon” on the East Coast [...] Continue Reading...
