Archive | Technology ETFs

Why Overvalued Stock ETFs Still Offer Opportunity

Let us recall that every significant economist and every major U.S. investment firm predicted interest rates would climb in 2014. The primary basis for the assessment? U.S. economic growth would accelerate and encourage the Federal Reserve to end ultra-easy monetary measures. Well, now that we’ve seen a so-called acceleration in the second quarter – now [...] Continue Reading...


Profit Margins And ‘Fairly Valued’ U.S. Stock ETFs

Money managers like myself may not discuss it often, but they probably have an “Uh Oh Indicator.” What is it? When certain clients ask why any amount of cash rests in money market accounts – why more of the money is not being committed to the stock benchmark du jour (i.e., NASDAQ in 1999, MSCI [...] Continue Reading...


Is A Little “Bubble Paranoia” Good For Your ETF Portfolio?

Authors Lu Wang and Joseph Ciolli at Bloomberg described the fear of U.S. stocks falling as “bubble paranoia.” Yet, if fundamental and technical indicators both suggest that U.S. stock assets are extremely overvalued, is the maladjustment with some investors or with the markets themselves? The above-mentioned writers explained that U.S. Federal Reserve members believe asset prices [...] Continue Reading...


Why U.S. Small Company ETFs Are Losing Their Way

There has been a great deal of talk about the housing recovery. Sales of existing homes steadily rose between mid-2011 and mid-2013 on the back of a weak U.S. dollar and an increase in the money supply. Indeed, Federal Reserve monetary policy had stimulated demand for U.S. stocks as well as U.S. real estate. Yet [...] Continue Reading...


Susceptibility 101: ETFs That Are Exceptionally Far From Respective Trendlines

Are investors cautiously optimistic? Probably. A little bit greedy? Maybe. Yet I would be hard-pressed to describe the current psychology in terms of euphoria. The most apt descriptor is complacency. Keep in mind, geopolitical tensions are rising in the Middle East, Ukraine and off the coastal waters near China. Not surprisingly, gasoline prices have remained stubbornly [...] Continue Reading...


Managing ETF Portfolio Risk: Be Mindful Of Reversions To Long-Term Averages

The Internet buzzes with predictions for the next bear market. Some use fundamental analysis to make their case. For instance, Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for U.S. equities (PE 10) employs 10 years of trailing corporate profits. It currently stands at 25.6, while the historical average is roughly 16.5. This suggests that if U.S. large-cap stocks [...] Continue Reading...


Uber and Tech ETFs: Stupid Is As Stupid Does

Economist Hyman Minksy argued that when a private sector accumulates too much debt, an economic system buckles. Supporters of his theories point to the catastrophic effect that sub-prime mortgages had on the 2007-2009 U.S. economy. Detractors simply highlight the 2010-2011 euro-zone crisis. In essence, the excessive borrowing and spending by beleaguered European nations nearly destroyed [...] Continue Reading...


Are Record Levels Of Consumer Credit Dangerous To Your ETF Portfolio?

Technology was the best performing sector in the five years prior to the 2000-2002 stock market bear. The acceleration of dot-com mania created a boom-to-bust scenario that few had ever seen. Yet “tech” actually weakened before other segments of the economy. What’s more, corporate shares of technology companies witnessed far more violent sell-offs than stock [...] Continue Reading...


“Old Tech” ETFs Are Better Risk-Reward Prospects Than “New Tech” ETFs

Scores of investors often regard Benjamin Graham as the grandfather of value investing. Even those who shun Graham’s methods of analyzing securities tend to revere quotes attributed to him. For example, on market complacency, “… chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of good business conditions.” In this discussion, we [...] Continue Reading...


The Great ETF Rotation Is Accelerating

Back on April 9, I talked about a “Great Rotation” away from momentum plays (e.g., biotech, Internet, small-cap growth, etc.). Where did the smart money go? Demand had been picking up for the least popular asset classes from 2013, including long-dated treasuries, select emerging markets as well as commodities. Five trading weeks have passed since I [...] Continue Reading...


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