Archive | Technology ETFs

Expect Rate Sensitive ETFs To Extend Their Lead Due To Housing Uncertainty

I have not been able to sell my house. I have lowered the original asking price ($1,139,000) by more than 5%. I have jacked up the commission for buyer agents. None of it matters – million dollar homes throughout Orange County, California are not receiving a whole lot of offers. Granted, real estate is local. What’s [...] Continue Reading...


The Barbell Approach To ETF Portfolio Allocation Continues To Shine

I did not invent the barbell strategy. At the start of the year, I simply offered readers a glimpse into the way that I would be managing ETF assets in the late-stage bull market. First, let me take you back to January when I explained that long-term rates would fall, not rise. The contrarian call had [...] Continue Reading...


Is The S&P 500 Now Safer Than A Diversified Portfolio?

Both the media and a wide array of financial advisers preach owning a diversified portfolio. Below, I have created a hypothetical asset mix that a moderate growth investor might employ: 30% iShares S&P 500 (IVV) 25% Vanguard Total Bond (BND) 12.5% iShares MSCI EAFE (EFA) 7.5% SPDR S&P Mid-Cap 400 (MDY) 5% SPDR High Yield (JNK) 5% Vanguard Short-Term Bond (BSV) 5% [...] Continue Reading...


Reduce Your Allocation To Small Cap U.S. Stock ETFs

The Wall Street media may celebrate the 35% intra-day jump in Alibaba shares. They may tout the record highs in the Dow and the S&P 500. However, they are missing the boat on both the economy as well as key stock market divergences. Let us start with the economic environment. The all-important Conference Board’s Leading Indicators [...] Continue Reading...


Why Overvalued Stock ETFs Still Offer Opportunity

Let us recall that every significant economist and every major U.S. investment firm predicted interest rates would climb in 2014. The primary basis for the assessment? U.S. economic growth would accelerate and encourage the Federal Reserve to end ultra-easy monetary measures. Well, now that we’ve seen a so-called acceleration in the second quarter – now [...] Continue Reading...


Profit Margins And ‘Fairly Valued’ U.S. Stock ETFs

Money managers like myself may not discuss it often, but they probably have an “Uh Oh Indicator.” What is it? When certain clients ask why any amount of cash rests in money market accounts – why more of the money is not being committed to the stock benchmark du jour (i.e., NASDAQ in 1999, MSCI [...] Continue Reading...


Is A Little “Bubble Paranoia” Good For Your ETF Portfolio?

Authors Lu Wang and Joseph Ciolli at Bloomberg described the fear of U.S. stocks falling as “bubble paranoia.” Yet, if fundamental and technical indicators both suggest that U.S. stock assets are extremely overvalued, is the maladjustment with some investors or with the markets themselves? The above-mentioned writers explained that U.S. Federal Reserve members believe asset prices [...] Continue Reading...


Why U.S. Small Company ETFs Are Losing Their Way

There has been a great deal of talk about the housing recovery. Sales of existing homes steadily rose between mid-2011 and mid-2013 on the back of a weak U.S. dollar and an increase in the money supply. Indeed, Federal Reserve monetary policy had stimulated demand for U.S. stocks as well as U.S. real estate. Yet [...] Continue Reading...


Susceptibility 101: ETFs That Are Exceptionally Far From Respective Trendlines

Are investors cautiously optimistic? Probably. A little bit greedy? Maybe. Yet I would be hard-pressed to describe the current psychology in terms of euphoria. The most apt descriptor is complacency. Keep in mind, geopolitical tensions are rising in the Middle East, Ukraine and off the coastal waters near China. Not surprisingly, gasoline prices have remained stubbornly [...] Continue Reading...


Managing ETF Portfolio Risk: Be Mindful Of Reversions To Long-Term Averages

The Internet buzzes with predictions for the next bear market. Some use fundamental analysis to make their case. For instance, Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for U.S. equities (PE 10) employs 10 years of trailing corporate profits. It currently stands at 25.6, while the historical average is roughly 16.5. This suggests that if U.S. large-cap stocks [...] Continue Reading...


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