Extraordinary rallies off bear market bottoms are typical. Bullish run-ups in March of 2003 as well as March of 2009 registered enviable unrealized gains of 35% and 65% respectively; each advance experienced little resistance for roughly 9-10 months. Powerful moves off minor corrections are less typical, if not downright suspicious. Investors in the S&P 500 SPDR [...] Continue Reading...
There are moments in time when I get tired of hammering on a theme. For example, on April 1, I penned the article, Selecting Safer Growth and Income ETFs for the 2nd Quarter Pullback. The commentary made the simple case for shifting to sectors that do not exhibit a great deal of economic cyclicality. After [...] Continue Reading...
For the first time in 2013, investors do not appear to be tripping over themselves to buy every fractional percentage dip. Here on 4/15, the media have blamed the accelerated selling on commodity price depreciation and a disappointing GDP reading (7.7%) out of China. So we’re supposed to believe that a manic Monday where the domestic [...] Continue Reading...
Over the course of the 4-year bull market, I’ve kept an eye on the percentage of S&P 100 stocks that reside above a long-term 200-day trendline. Market pressures always seemed to develop when the level approached 86%-90%. Similarly, when the 50-day moving average for the S&P 100 reached 85%, you could pretty much count on [...] Continue Reading...
People are feeling better about spending money. Similarly, investors are feeling better about risking it. The problem is, whenever people begin to feel wealthy due to a faulty premise (i.e., the U.S. Federal Reserve can keep buying bonds to depress interest rates without longer-term implications), they may spend more than they have. Others may blindly [...] Continue Reading...
In a “Then and Now” piece, the Wall Street Journal published a number of fascinating statistics. “Then” represented October of 2007… the last time that the Dow Jones Industrials Average notched nominal highs. “Now” represents March of 2013… the first time that the price-weighted index ever closed above 14,250. Household income has slipped 5.6% since October [...] Continue Reading...
U.S. stocks (S&P 500) have packed on Olympic-sized gains through the initial eight weeks of 2013. Fed policy uncertainty aside, 6%-plus capital appreciation on low volatility is impressive by any measure. The bulk of the run-up is attributable to industries tied to economic growth and enhancement. Sector ETFs that represent financials, industrials, technology and energy have [...] Continue Reading...
The S&P 500 has not merely been resilient in its six consecutive weeks of gains. The celebrated U.S. stock benchmark has been unstoppable in its 8.3% unrealized run-up. Granted, nearly everyone expects a period of mild selling activity (a.k.a. “a breather”). Indeed, history certainly suggests that unbridled enthusiasm usually gets a reality check or three. The [...] Continue Reading...
After nearly 4 years, retail investors have begun to exit low-yielding investment grade bonds for the perceived potential of stocks. This “rotation” of money flow into equity funds is putting pressure on fund managers to keep pace with the broader benchmarks. In other words, if they hold back cash in the hopes of a better [...] Continue Reading...
In simpler investing times, an investor purchased treasury bonds for their reliable income stream. Today, the only reason to buy iShares 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) is for the potential that worldwide demand can push yields lower and prices higher. Similarly, there once was a time when dividends in technology stocks were a mere afterthought. You bought Apple (APPL) because it might go [...] Continue Reading...
