Archive | US Markets and ETFs

Are Transportation Stocks Hinting At A New Recession?

Is a recession around the corner? Some analysts believe the key to that answer resides with transportation companies like Federal Express (FDX), Union Pacific (UNP) and Ryder (R). Specifically, if less and less unfinished goods are being moved to manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers, then one might anticipate sluggish growth, or even economic contraction. How might one [...] Continue Reading...


Why A ‘Rate Hike Tantrum’ Will Not Kill Bond ETFs in 2015

The 10-year Treasury note is the most recognizable, and most important, debt instrument in the world’s financial system. It is vital to foreign jurisdictions, banks and investors as a way to gain exposure to the U.S. dollar as well as interest payments backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. federal government. Stateside, [...] Continue Reading...


Technical Breakouts For Popular ETFs On The World Stage

The current bull market for U.S. stocks is the fourth longest in history. Two others journeyed into a seventh year, while one other (1990s) enjoys the distinction as having traveled into an eighth year. Even if one subscribes to the idea that “bull markets never die of old age,” probability alone suggests that we are [...] Continue Reading...


Three Implications Of “Shifts” In Fed Policy

A large number of stocks in the Dow Jones Industrials Average have moved lower since the¬†Federal Reserve ended its quantitative easing (QE) program in late October. Telecom giants AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) have toiled. Consumer champs Procter & Gamble (PG) and Coca-Cola (KO) have struggled. Commodity-related kings like Chevron (CVX) and Caterpillar (CAT)? They’ve [...] Continue Reading...


ETF Risk Management In The Face Of A Surging U.S. Dollar

Historically, when the U.S. dollar surges, forward S&P 500 earnings plummet. In the same vein, the last two times that the world’s reserve currency skyrocketed, the¬†U.S. economy slipped into a recession. Come on, Gary. Do you really think that we have already dipped into recession territory? No, I do not. Yet the idea that the Federal [...] Continue Reading...


Selling Winners In Your Portfolio Is Never Easy

It’s not an easy thing to sell an asset that you still believe has legs. I needed to reduce exposure to Vanguard Extended Duration (EDV)¬†for many of my clients, in spite of the reality that they were sitting on 14-plus months of remarkable capital appreciation and income gains. What transpired? The exchange-traded tracker hit a stop-limit [...] Continue Reading...


Everything Is Awesome? Time To Rethink Your ETF Asset Mix

Less than three months ago, analysts everywhere argued a case for economic acceleration. It was almost as if financial authorities big and small had held a convention at LEGOLAND in California to declare that, “Everything Is Awesome.” Everything is not awesome. Jobless claims hit 10-month highs, factory orders have dropped for six consecutive months, consumer spending [...] Continue Reading...


What the NASDAQ’s Round-Trip To 5000 Really Means

When the NASDAQ Composite Index hit 5000 in March of 2000, jubilant investors celebrated the milestone. Shortly thereafter, however, scores of individuals lost their collective shirts. Many witnessed losses of 50%, 60% or 80% of their account values on names like Cisco, JDS Uniphase and Pets.com. Back then, the euphoria was akin to unchecked greed. Today, [...] Continue Reading...


Scarcity and Stocks: How to Follow (Or Avoid) A Late ’90s “New Economy” Playbook

For the better part of 15 months, I have pounded the table for longer-term U.S. treasuries. Most financial pundits thought that I was nuts in December of 2013; they debated my scarcity premise throughout 2014 and they dismiss my relative value argument here in 2015. About the only concession? The talking heads have often acknowledged [...] Continue Reading...


Why The Fed Has Lost The Will To Normalize Rates (And What You Can Do About It)

McKinsey & Company, a multinational consulting firm, recently compiled data on global debt and economic growth. The company determined that worldwide debt has reached nearly $200 trillion dollars, up from roughly $140 trillion at the time of the 2008 crisis. Gross world product grew approximately $15 trillion to $70 trillion in the same time frame. In [...] Continue Reading...


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