Jack Hough recently wrote an “Ahead of the Crowd” article for Barron’s on finding value in the stock market. The author cited a Merrill Lynch study that looked at core fundamental data dating back 25 years — data like book value, cash flow and earnings — to determine overpriced and under-priced sectors. My first reaction to [...] [...more]
Since the summertime lows, a number of themes have gained enormous traction. U.S. real estate is benefiting from ultra-low mortgage rates, limited supply and remarkable demand from overseas buyers. Chinese leadership continues to provide just enough government support to maintain economic targets. And the European Central Bank (ECB) is having success at containing its sovereign [...] [...more]
It’s one thing to claim that the stock market is pricing in Armageddon… that emotionality is trumping rationality. It’s another thing to dismiss investor fears as silly or absurd. Along these lines, the researchers at Bespoke published a fascinating table of “technically oversold” ETFs. In Analystville, one may regard an ETF as oversold when its current price is more [...] [...more]
Short-sellers and program traders are in charge… for now. Going into Wednesday’s (8/3/11) session, PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) sat directly atop its 200-day moving average. After falling below the key trendline early, QQQ springboarded to finish with a 1% gain. Or consider the S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY). It fell precisely -10% from its April 29 intra-day high to its August 3 [...] [...more]
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed more than 10% above its long-term 200-day moving average. That hasn’t happened since August of 2010, back when investors fretted the possibility of a double-dip recession. Today, the worries are more cumulative in nature. Uncertain job growth, depressed home values, debt troubles in Europe, rising commodity prices, the threat of rising rates, inflation in Asia, [...] [...more]
