Hardly a day goes by without a shout-out to the inevitable return of inflation stateside. Moreover, the recommendations for dealing with the eventual return are as predictable as peach pie. Buy gold! Short the U.S. longer-maturity bonds! Of course, if you’re going to get any treasury bonds, some will guide you towards inflation-protected treasuries, or TIPs. And for those who still choose to hedge [...] [...more]
Consumers are spending a little more. Companies are hiring a little more. And stocks in the Wilshire 5000 vis-a-vis Vanguard Total Market (VTI) are experiencing a definitive uptrend. So the economy has to be improving, right? After all, the stock market is a forward indicator of things to come. When an economy improves through GDP growth, job [...] [...more]
The Economist polls a wide variety of economic forecasters to come up with consensus readings on inflation (consumer prices) and GDP growth. Similarly, Bloomberg has sought median forecasts on year-end changes on world currencies. Here’s a quick summation on what the business journalists found: 1. Nearly all consumers in the developed world will see rising prices (a.k.a. inflation), though [...] [...more]
When State Street introduced the first foreign bond ETF nearly 2 years ago, I was ecstatic. The SPDR Barclay International Treasury Bond Fund (BWX) offered an annual income stream above 4.25%, a natural hedge against the U.S. dollar, potential for some capital appreciation and a history of non-correlation to stock assets. Today, BWX produces an income stream [...] [...more]
