Far too frequently, commentators focus on one of two potential outcomes. For example, one writer may explain why riskier assets will navigate the fiscal cliff and rocket substantially higher into the New Year. Meanwhile, another may predict the collapse of market-based investing altogether, with the Dow plummeting 3000 points before Christmas.
Greed and fear. Bull and [...] [...more]
By several¬†measures,¬†investors are every bit as afraid today as they were in the first week of October, when U.S. stocks had reached 52-week lows. Yet the S&P 500 is 11.5% higher than it was on 10/3/11.
How can we tell that investors are still petrified?¬†They’re¬†flocking back to the perceived safety of¬†the U.S. dollar and¬†piling back into [...] [...more]
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Click here to listen to the show: 10-16-2011
Most analysts¬†believed that Bernanke would announce some form of additional Fed stimulus. That was the prevailing wisdom. Moreover, analysts also believed that the markets would falter without a Fed boost, or conversely, that markets would rise with a Fed injection. By Friday, when the Fed did nothing,¬†the markets appeared¬†panicky at first, but then they rose [...] [...more]
Since late April, U.S. stock assets have labored in an extensive period of corrective activity. Bulls believe that the pullback is helping to restore health to the markets. They contend that the¬†”weak” always run for the hills, providing opportunity for savvy shoppers to¬†buy great bargain companies at discounted prices.
Bears explain that the lengthy period of [...] [...more]
On Wednesday, 8/11/2010, the S&P 500 fell back below its 200-day moving average. The omnipotent gauge for top U.S. stocks¬†only managed to hold above the level for 6 trading days.
Perhaps ironically, this is the second time in the current corrective period that the S&P 500 climbed above its trendline… then fell below it shortly thereafter. [...] [...more]
On Thursday, April 22, 2010, I penned a column for¬†ETF Risk Alert subscribers titled, “Resilience Or End Of the Road?” The commentary focused on the increasing volatility that one could see by looking at the intra-day price range for stock assets.
On April 30, 2010, in “A Week of Heightened Volatility,” I addressed the fact that [...] [...more]
Praise¬†the reduced¬†threat of health-care intervention for Tuesday’s surge higher. Blame¬†China’s focus on restricting credit for Wednesday’s dramatic move lower.
Here on Thursday, 1/21/10,¬†it’s the uncertainty created by¬†Obama’s proposed¬†bank regulations that has caused extraordinary¬†selling pressure for stock assets.¬†For¬†3 consecutive trading days, then, we’ve seen the major U.S. benchmarks move up or down by 1%+.
There are several exchange-traded [...] [...more]
On Thursday, 12/3/09, at “High Noon” on the West Coast, the markets had been straddling the flat line. I turned to my colleague and said, “I’m going for a short lunch.¬†I’ll be back well before 1:00 p.m. to get a feel for the severity of the selling pressure at the close of market.”
It wasn’t arrogance [...] [...more]
Just a week ago, the market was poised to go 8 for 8; that is, stocks¬†hadn’t lost¬†ground since¬†February of ‘09.
Then came the late October spook-fest. The S&P 500 SPDR Trust¬†(SPY) lost -4.2% this week alone, while the¬†the PowerShares Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) shed -5.0%.
Not since July have these market barometers¬†finished a week¬†below their respective¬†50-day moving averages. [...] [...more]