If Familiarity Breeds Contempt, What Do Debt And Complacency Breed?

By | Bond ETFs, Currency ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

Back in 1999, low inflation and fabulous headline unemployment (<5%) warranted a Federal Reserve overnight lending rate of 5.0%. Today, low inflation and desirable headline unemployment (<5%) come with $3.75 trillion in electronic money credits still on the central bank’s balance sheet and a Fed Funds Rate of a mere 1.25%. That is 375 basis points lower than it was with similar economic fundamentals less than two decades ago, not to mention a whole lot of “electronic money printing” since the…

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What Will Eventually Wobble The Stock Market?

By | Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Popular Posts, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

I asked my Vice President at Pacific Park Financial, Inc. if he thought that anything might wobble the stock market. Rob said, “Extra-terrestrials could invade the planet. That MIGHT send the Dow down 0.4% for a few hours in the middle of the day.” “I disagree,” I counter-punched. “If outer space beings visit Earth, they will share secrets on how to travel faster than the speed of light in exchange for shares of Amazon.” “They’ll want bitcoin,” Rob said matter-of-factly….

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The Years 2000 And 2017: There’s A Whole Lot Of Rhyming Going On

By | Bond ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Special Sectors ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

This week, CNBC’s Kelly Evans interviewed one of the most well-respected billionaire hedge fund managers in history, Julian Robertson. The co-founder of Tiger Management discussed global central bank collusion to depress interest rates and the subsequent creation of a bubble. “A bubble in the stock market?” the journalist clarified. Robertson replied, “Yes, ma’am.” Billionaires from the investing world do not sport perfect track records. Nevertheless, when the .0001% speak, investors should take notice. Within the past few months, the list of billionaire…

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Everything Is Wonderful… Ex-Energy, Ex-Retail And Ex-Banks

By | Biotechnology ETFs, Consumer ETFs, Energy ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Health ETFs, Materials ETFs, Popular Posts, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs, Utilities ETFs | No Comments

As long as central banks around the globe are creating monetary credits at a breakneck clip of $200 billion per month, assets from stocks to real estate to higher yielding securities may have a floor underneath them. In particular, saber rattling in North Korea, government shutdown threats, natural disasters from Harvey to Irma, slower job growth and/or the demise of big name retailers may not cause long-lasting stock declines. And therein lies a problem: extreme complacency. The masses are beginning…

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The Slowdown in Lending May Become Problematic For Stock Investors

By | Consumer ETFs, Current Affairs and ETFs, ETF Philosophy, ETF Strategy, Large Cap ETFs, Small Cap ETFs, Special Sectors ETFs, Technology ETFs, US Markets and ETFs | No Comments

In the current business cycle, the Treasury bond yield curve has rarely been flatter. The spread between 30s and 2s is a paltry 1.4% and the spread between 10s and 2s is a meager 0.8%. Historically, the yield curve has been close to flawless as an expansion-contraction indicator. When a flattening curve dipped below ‘zero,’ the inversion foreshadowed seven out of the last 8 recessions. However, the Federal Reserve’s creation of trillions in electronic dollar credits (a.k.a. “quantitative easing” or…

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